On Tuesday, the Red Sox will play their 81st game of the season and their season will officially be half over.
Maybe the Red Sox have it in them in the second half to make the American League East a race -- and maybe they don't. There's plenty of time -- and plenty of head-to-head opportunities -- to close a gap of a half-dozen or so games with the New York Yankees.
But if the Sox can't win the division for the fourth straight year, they'll at least have the wild-card spot as their entry into the post-season.
Of course, for now, that's a mighty crowded competition. Before Saturday, no fewer than five AL teams -- or one-third of the league -- were within two games of the top wild-card spot while two others teams were only four back. That translates to nearly half of the league's franchises with a realistic shot at the post-season.
That's good for parity and bad for those trying to assess the field. For brevity's sake, let's focus on the Red Sox primary competition for now: Tampa Bay, Cleveland, Texas and Oakland.
We'll assess strengths and weaknesses and determine possible needs at the deadline, and finally, grade their chances:
TAMPA BAY
The Rays have hit a rough patch of late, dropping 7 of 10 while getting beat up by the Yankees in New York. But they remain a formidable contender, and even with their recent slippage, have the best record of any non-division leader in the AL.
STRENGTHS: In a word: pitching. The Rays have the AL's best ERA, with the next-closest team almost a half-run higher. Blake Snell is a true No. 1 and Charlie Morton brings veteran kn0w-how and big-game experience. The team will get Tyler Glasnow back in the next month and that will only strengthen an area that's already elite.
WEAKNESSES: Power. In today's game, where the long ball is the coin of the realm, the Rays are just 10th in homers. Also, while the bullpen has performed well, the team could used an experienced back-end option, a need that was reflected in the team's pursuit of Craig Kimbrel.
DEADLINE TO-DO LIST: They could use a big bat in the middle of the lineup -- which might be difficult to find -- and another dependable bullpen piece. The positive? Unlike in the past, Rays management has signaled a willingness to spend money to add to the roster and help a second-half push.
CHANCE OF SUCCESS: Very good.
CLEVELAND
The window is closing on the Indians, who cut payroll over the winter and are now paying the price as the Twins threaten to run off with the division. Should the Tribe dip under .500, the front office might get the rebuild going sooner rather than later. But if they remain in the hunt for the wild card, the Indians might take one less stab at trying to win with this group -- as long as it doesn't involve taking on much salary.
STRENGTHS: The steady, guiding hand of manager Terry Francona, who can get a team through some tough times. The rotation is a plus, though it's anyone's guess when Corey Kluber will return. Speed, general athleticism.
WEAKNESSES: The offense lost a lot with the trade of Yan Gomes and the free agent defection of Michael Brantley. Jose Ramirez's continuing decline at the plate, meanwhile, remains a mystery.
DEADLINE TO-DO LIST: Like the Rays, the Indians need some sock. Unlike the Rays, the Indians don't have a great deal in their system from which to trade.
CHANCE OF SUCCESS: Fair at best.
TEXAS
More so than any other team in the hunt, the Rangers are ahead of schedule. Their rebuild was supposed to coincide with the opening of their new ballpark next year. But here they are, contenders at least a year early. That may limit what they're willing to do in terms of acquiring upgrades. The Rangers have been the beneficiaries of some surprising bounce-back seasons from a number of veterans and those turnarounds could level off in the second half.
STRENGTHS: An improved and deep lineup, thanks to the resurgence of Hunter Pence, Shin-Soo Choo and the continued improvement of Joey Gallo.
WEAKNESSES: Mike Minor has been a pleasant surprise, but the Rangers lack a true, established front-end starter and those are not cheap to come by. Similarly, while Shawn Kelly has performed well in the closer's spot, the bullpen depth could be an issue.
DEADLINE TO-DO LIST: Pitching is the obvious need, but again the question on timetables is worth asking: Is GM Jon Daniels willing to go for it this summer when the Rangers might be better served to hold on to assets and better positioning themselves for 2020 and beyond?
CHANCE OF SUCCESS: Fair.
OAKLAND
Let's start with this truism: the A's are almost always better than they have any right to be. Furthermore, Billy Beane is a master of improving his team mid-season while not deviating from the big picture. The A's were counting on some young starters -- led by top prospect Jesus Lozardo -- to boost them in the second half and they'll get Sean Manaea back soon, too. But the recent PED suspension to Frankie Montas is a big blow.
STRENGTHS: Bob Melvin is among the best managers in the game and is accustomed to overseeing second-half surges. The bullpen is loaded with quality options in the late innings, anchored by closer Blake Treinen. Defensively, they're strong, especially on the left side of the infield.
WEAKNESSES: Lack of a true No. 1 starter and overall depth could be an issue.
DEADLINE TO-DO LIST: Don't expect anything hugely dramatic, although, every once in a while, the A's can surprise (see: Jon Lester). But the A's are adept at making under-the-radar moves that provide help.
CHANCE OF SUCCESS: Pretty good.
The Chicago White Sox and Los Angeles Angels can't be ruled out of contention, but given that they went into Saturday's play each a game under .50o with five teams in front of them in the wild-card standings, they can't yet be taken seriously, either.
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- The Rays have been unable to get financing or political backing (or land or...) for a new ballpark in the Tampa-St. Pete area. But now, just because they won't need a retractable roof because of the less oppressive conditions earlier in the season, the money will flow?
- For that matter, what incentive would there be in Montreal? Olympic Stadium isn't usable, so a new ballpark would be needed. Again, how much enthusiasm would there be in Quebec for a 40-game season if it's going to require a ballpark that will run close to $500 million? And what do they do with the facility for the other 325 days of the year?
- Weather would be an issue in Monteal, too, given that they likely wouldn't/couldn't include a roof on anything new. And the last time the Expos played in Montreal in a ballpark without cover, they played a stunning 18 doubleheaders to make up for games that were rained or snowed out.
- Fan support. The Rays can't draw now, but all of a sudden, people are going to storm the ticket windows, knowing that the team will be gone by late June, and any post-season games would presumably be played in Montreal? How does such a plan improve fan interest? And what happens in Montreal if the Rays experience a slow start to the season over the first half? Are fans really going to hop on the bandwagon mid-season for a team already out of playoff contention.
- There are a litany of logistical issues to consider. Players -- and coaches and staff -- would need two residences during a season increasing out-of-pocket living expenses. Imagine trying to lure a free agent when a player knows he'd have to uproot his family in the middle of the season -- while playing for the same team.
- Taxes. While Florida is attractive because it doesn't have a state income tax, Quebec has both federal and provincial taxes. And Montreal is a notoriously expensive city.
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