The 2019 NHL Draft is finally here, signaling the official start of a hectic two-week stretch in the offseason that could feature some major moves in both free agency and on the trade market.
While the Bruins currently have around $13 million in cap space freed up this summer, most of that will be reserved for locking up the club’s restricted free agents such as Charlie McAvoy, Brandon Carlo and Danton Heinen, while additional cap maneuvering will likely revolve around retaining a player like Marcus Johansson.
Still, with Boston trying to capitalize on its current championship window, the B’s could be active players this summer when it comes to the trade market, especially with chips such as Torey Krug,draft capital and a promising prospect pipeline available for the right deal.
Let’s take a look at a few potential trade targets for Don Sweeney and Co. this summer:
Chris Kreider
Height: 6-foot-3
Weight: 220 lbs
Age: 28
Current Team: New York Rangers
Contract Status: $4.625 million AAV / Unrestricted free agent for 2020-21 season
2018-19 Stats: 79 games played, 28 goals, 24 assists / 17:24 ATOI
Is there a fit?
Don Sweeney discussed it, Cam Neely expanded upon it. Whether it’s an internal move or a deal struck later this summer, it seems like a given that the Bruins have made a top-six winger an area of focus for the 2019 offseason.
When it comes to solving the vacancy on David Krejci’s line — an issue that plagued Boston for most of the 2018-19 campaign — Boston could very well just slot down David Pastrnak to solve some headaches. But if we’re looking at outside options, all signs point to Kreider.
When Krejci has been at his best, he’s often benefited from a great rapport with hard-nosed power forwards on the wing — and you arguably can’t find a better (and more importantly, realistic) fit than the Boston College product.
The 28-year-old winger has been a consistent scorer up at the NHL level for years now, averaging 21.8 goals per season in his six full seasons with the Rangers, and was one of the few bright spots on a New York team that’s currently rebuilding.
A big body that also peppers the net (201 SOG last season, second on Rangers), Kreider is not afraid to battle down low for Grade-A chances — as evidenced by his shot map below — but his quick snapshot (boasting an average overall shot distance of 27 feet) is also patented for success on a line anchored by a playmaking pivot like Krejci.
When it comes to Goals Above Replacement — similar to baseball’s WAR in terms of measuring the total amount of goals a player adds to his team relative to a replacement level player — Kreider would be a major coup for Boston. If we look strictly at even-strength play (an area where Boston struggled for extended stretches during the regular season), Kreider’s even-strength GAR of 14.80 would rank first among all Bruins forwards based on last season.
His 14.20 overall GAR would also rank him fifth overall among Boston forwards last year — behind other top-six skaters in Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak and Krejci.
Even on a Rangers team that ranked 25th overall among NHL clubs with a minus-27 5v5 goal differential, the Blueshirts still managed to outscore the competition, 60-46, during the 1,083 minutes of 5v5 TOI in which Kreider was out skating. Add in his contributions as a net-front option on the man advantage (seven power-play goals), and Kreider seems like a natural fit on Boson’s top-six.
And, of course, you can’t look past those local connections, right? Adding Kreider, a Boxford native that went to BC, would give Boston four players from the Bay State.
What are the risks?
While Krug might stand as Boston’s premier trade chip this summer, it would seem like the Rangers — already poised for a quick rebuild with plenty of money coming off the books in two years and with (likely) Kaapo Kakko in tow — would value picks or young prospects with team-friendly deals.
The Bruins have plenty of history with Rangers GM Jeff Gorton — who would likely want at least a first-round pick and a top prospect like Trent Frederic or Jeremy Lauzon in exchange for a top-six winger like Kreider, and that might be low-balling it.
Still, if Boston wants to go all in and maximize this current window, bringing aboard Kreider would give Sweeney plenty of headaches in the summer of 2020 — with Kreider, Charlie Coyle, Krug, Chris Wagner, Joakim Nordstrom, Jaroslav Halak, Zdeno Chara and Kevan Miller all set to be UFAs. Add in Jake DeBrusk, Matt Grzelcyk, Karson Kuhlman and Connor Clifton set for pay raises as RFAs, and the Bruins are really set to be doing cap-space gymnastics if they pull the trigger on such a deal.
Jesse Puljujarvi
Height: 6-foot-4
Weight: 201 lbs
Age: 21
Current Team: Edmonton Oilers
Contract Status: Restricted free agent this offseason
Stats: 46 games played, four goals, five assists/11:57 ATOI
Is there a fit?
Another top pick, another fumbled opportunity for the Oilers, who appear to be reaching an end with Puljujarviafter taking the Finnish power forward fourth overall in the 2016 NHL Draft.
Selected ahead of players such as Clayton Keller and Matthew Tkachuk, Puljujarvi has failed to live up to expectations up north, tallying just 17 goals and 37 total points over 139 career games.
Even with his lack of production, Puljujarvi didn’t exactly get much help from Edmonton upon making the transition over to North American hockey, and it’s quite apparent that the winger wants out.
Unable to get much of a footing upon getting selected by Edmonton, Puljujarvi was likely over brought over to North America a year too soon, spending the 2016-17 season in the AHL before getting called up and playing 28 games with the Oilers at just 18 years old.
Not afforded the time that most power forwards need to hone their skills up at the pro level, Puljujarvi languished for the following two seasons. In 2018-19, the 21-year-old dealt with a hip injury, but struggled to find much success when put in the lineup.
Even a player with tangible skills and good speed for a big body was often dragged down when placed in Edmonton’s lineup, with Puljujarvi averaging under 12 minutes of ice time a night while primarily skating with
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
and either
Jujhar Khaira
(79 minutes of 5v5 TOI) or
Milan Lucic
(53 minutes of 5v5 TOI). Both of those lines only had offensive zone faceoff percentages of 45% and 40%, respectively.
Not exactly putting a young forward in a position to succeed.
At any rate, it looks as though Puljujarvi is finished in Edmonton, with the winger
in 2019-20. Puljujarvi should draw plenty of suitors out on the trade market, standing as an ideal low-risk, high-reward prize this summer.
He may not fit the profile of a top-six winger that Boston is in hot pursuit of (nor should he be viewed as such), but on a B’s club that could use some size and skill in the bottom-six, Puljujarvi could really find his groove, especially if paired with a playmaking center like Coyle.
In terms of the advanced statistics, there’s not much going in Puljujarvi’s favor (headlined by a -3.30 GAR), but if the cost is right, then a 21-year-old winger that was a top-5 pick just three years ago certainly seems worth the risk.
What are the risks?
Of course, the biggest risk is that Puljujarvi fails to make any strides upon getting out of Edmonton, which very well could just be the case for the young forward. While he wasn’t put in much of a position to succeed, Puljujarvi also left much to be desired when paired with top-flight talent — with the Oilers getting outscored, 5-3, and getting edged in high-danger scoring chances, 18-9, in the 66:46 of 5v5 TOI in which Puljujarvi skated with
Connor McDavid
this season.
However, the biggest risk in a potential deal for Puljujarvi might revolve around what the exact cost might be to pry him out of Edmonton. While Puljujarvi seems adamant on leaving the Oilers, and potentially could return to Europe to play if a trade is not struck, Edmonton GM
Ken Holland
isn’t going to let his winger walk for a marginal return.
Ken Holland on Jesse Puljujarvi: "I'm not giving a player away because they're unhappy. No way. If I trade any player I have to get fair value or I'm not doing it. I'm not trading a player to get him out of my hair."
(as opposed to picks or prospects), then the Bruins should walk away. Trading away someone like
Danton Heinen
for an unproven piece in
Puljujarvi would be a foolish move by Boston, no doubt about it. It will be interesting to see if Holland eventually budges and opts for a more reasonable return.
Nikolaj Ehlers
Height:
6-foot-0
Weight:
172 lbs
Age:
23
Current Team:
Winnipeg Jets
Contract Status:
$6 million AAV / Unrestricted free agent for 2025-26 season
2018-19 Stats:
62 games played, 21 goals, 16 assists / 15:46 ATOI
Is there a fit?
If adding a player like Puljujarvi is a major risk, Ehlers is much more of a safer bet — although the potential rewards are much, much better.
Ehler, a speedy, dynamic winger that has tallied 20 or more goals in each of the last three seasons, is still coming off of a down year for the Jets.
The 23-year-old skater, limited to just 62 games, labored a bit when split from his old linemates in
Mark Scheifele
and
Blake Wheeler
, while his fourth NHL campaign went out with a dud during the Jets’ first-round exit against the Blues — failing to tally a point in the six-game series while averaging just 12:50 of ice time.
Perhaps ending the season on such a sour note is why the Jets are (for some reason) potentially dangling Ehlers out on the trade market. Already burned earlier this week for their deal with the Rangers centered on
Jacob Trouba,
the Jets could be making another brutal move by moving a skilled, young forward with term in Ehlers. In need of some help on their blue line and set to face a bit of cap crunch in the coming years with players like
Patrik Laine
and
Kyle Connor
due for pay raises, the rationale is there for Winnipeg to clear some cap space, but man, Ehlers seems like a prime candidate to make his former team pay down the road if indeed he is dealt
.
Nikolaj Ehlers (Darcy Finley/NHLI via Getty Images)
And even if this might have been a “down” year, Ehlers still managed 21 goals over 64 games while logging plenty of time away from his old crew in Scheifele and Wheeler. Still, when that trio teamed up, they combined for 20 5v5 goals and a plus-9 goal differential in 391:03 of TOI. When Ehlers was taken off that line, a combination featuring Scheifele and Wheeler with another winger posted a minus-7 goal differential (41-34) in 757:16 of 5v5 TOI.
If given a playmaker like Wheeler or Krejci for a whole season, one could expect Ehlers to flirt with 30 goals, much as he did in 2017-18 (29 goals over 82 games). With open ice in front of him, Ehlers can be one of the most dynamic wingers in the game, often leaving opposing skaters flat-footed when trying to slow him down in the O-zone or when cutting through the neutral zone. With his speed, it’s no surprise that Ehlers ranks seventh among all NHL players since 2016 in drawn penalties with 114 — with Pastrnak right behind him with 111.
When you add in a contract that will only get better with age ($6 million annually through the 2024-25 season), trading for Ehlers seems like a no-brainer for most clubs looking for a boost in the top-six.
What are the risks?
While there are some concerns in the way the Blues knocked around Ehlers and limited him in the playoffs, the biggest issue when it comes to a potential deal involving Ehlers has to do with the price, especially when it comes to the Bruins’ assets.
While Boston can offer plenty of young prospects and affordable contracts, Winnipeg’s
could knock down the Bruins’ in a bidding war, with teams featuring a surplus of right-shot D like the Hurricanes capable of dangling NHL talent like
Justin Faulk, Brett Pesce
and
Dougie Hamilton
in front of the Jets. If Boston wants to land a player like Ehlers, the cost could be very, very high.
Other names to keep tabs on
Jason Zucker, Minnesota Wild:
Best buds with Charlie Coyle over in Minnesota, Zucker could be on the move this summer as the rebuilding Wild look to clear some cap space. Zucker’s numbers have dropped since scoring 33 goals two years ago, but the winger is still a 20-goal scorer with a $5.5 million cap hit over the next four seasons.
Josh Anderson, Blue Jackets:
This one seems like a long shot, but with the Blue Jackets in line for a rebuild and without a first-round pick (and plenty of other picks through 2020), could Columbus opt to part ways with a speedy power forward like Anderson (set to be an RFA in 2020) for some draft capital? Haven’t heard many whispers of Anderson being placed out on the trade market, but if the Jackets fail to retain any of their top free agents, they’re going to have to recoup some picks and fast.
