Robb: Making sense of the Aron Baynes trade for the Celtics

The Celtics did a lot of things on draft night, trading back once at No. 20 and then trading out of the first round with the No. 24 pick for a future first-round pick. However, one of the more perplexing moves of the night from a fan’s perspective was the C’s decision to trade No. 24 overall with Aron Baynes to the Phoenix Suns for a future first-round Bucks pick (which the Suns had previously acquired in the Eric Bledsoe trade). The selection is top-7 protected for 2020, so it’s all but guaranteed to convey then with the Bucks looking like a title contender again next year.

On the surface, the move doesn’t make a ton of sense from a value perspective. Baynes is a solid center that is making a reasonable salary ($5.4 million) after exercising his player option earlier this month. However, the Celtics' choices on Thursday clearly prioritized building for the future and it’s evident that Baynes at age 32 is not part of that plan. That’s a fine contract to have for a contender but the Celtics are not at the moment. The winds of change have hit as the team is looking forward to the future more to build and Baynes is not part of that equation for a couple of reasons. Let's take a closer look at what the team was trying to accomplish on Thursday night and whether it will pay off.

Why dump Baynes now?

Baynes is actually making probably a bit more next season than the free agent big market dictates: His salary was in no way prohibitive for Boston but given the fact the team has an unwanted but also unexpected opportunity arise with big cap room, not having him on the books was an easy way to create more flexibility. The Celtics clearly have other players in mind for the center position without Al Horford in the fold, whether its an emerging prospect like Robert Williams, a free agent target or a trade acquisition. The center position is incredibly deep this year on the open market (more on that this weekend) with the supply likely going to outweigh the demand at the spot.

The Celtics are clearly going to try to take advantage of this in some form in their newly developed plans and riding themselves of Baynes’ contract without having to take any salary back for it was an initial step in that process. There is always the option they could have dumped Baynes' deal later in the offseason but draft night is a time when there is ample cap room around the league. That could change in a couple of weeks as the spending begins, which may have left the C’s scrambling to find a taker for Baynes' $5.4 million potentially as the free agent market is set. Ainge may have had to add an asset to get rid of him at that point or had to take back some unwanted salary. Moving Baynes on draft night eliminated that risk and provided a clean break.

There have been plenty of mixed reports on Baynes' communication with the Celtics in recent weeks, along with sympathy for the veteran center from fans for a guy who is looking to contend for the remainder of his career. While contending was certainly the goal in Boston when he opted in, league sources confirmed to BostonSportsJournal.com that the team made the center no promises about his status when he decided to come back. He picked up that option in large part because $5.4 million is the best he probably was going to do on this market. Things obviously changed for the C’s when Horford decided he was probably not going to come back, and that caused Boston to pivot with their plans for Baynes. The Suns have no intention of buying him out despite reports to the contrary so he’ll need to provide some leadership for a team that desperately needs it.

It was a bit puzzling to see the Celtics opt to get rid of a player that is held in such high regard by the coaching staff and front office, but it was a move that forced Brad Stevens hand as well preemptively when it comes to playing time. Williams is going to get a chance to play now no matter who is brought in and that will be crucial for his development. Those opportunities may not have been there if Baynes remained in the fold as a weapon for Stevens. When you combine that with the cap implications and presenting the allure of opportunity in free agency to potential bigs, the executive decision was made to cut ties now.

What about the confusing pick swap?

So why the Celtics trade the 24th overall pick for a pick that will probably land in the late 20s next year? This was the other part of the Baynes trade as the C’s ended up moving out of 24 (Ty Jerome) while landing a pick from the Bucks (via Phoenix) next year that is projected to land in the late 20s. Again, on the surface, this does not look like good value but the Celtics achieved a couple of potentially important objectives because of it.

1. The Celtics created a little more salary cap room: The team had already nabbed the 33rd pick after trading back with the Sixers, so they probably had a good sense they were going to get someone they liked on their board at that spot. By dumping No. 24, the C’s were able to clear cap obligations for that pick (Just over $2 million), which creates a little more flexibility for them in free agency, if they pursue a bigger name on that front.

2. Kicking the can on a draft asset into next year: This was the primary objective here for the front office. They did not want to have to use all of their first round picks on this night since all of those assets lose a ton of value once they are used, in the same way a new car does once it's driven off the lot. After gaining what was essentially another first-round pick at 33 (due to the level tier of players in the 20-40 range in this year’s draft), the Celtics managed to lock down a future first round pick for 2020 that could be important in helping to target future star trades.

While the value of a late first from the Bucks won’t mean a ton in negotiations, the odds say it is certainly going to be a lot more valuable than a guy like Ty Jerome after his rookie year (assuming he doesn’t break out). This trade gives the Celtics three first round picks for 2020 (own, Memphis pick (top-6 protected), Bucks pick). It remains unclear whether a star worth targeting will become available in the next 12 months but the Suns trade helped bolster the team’s draft capital in the case that it does. The C’s can offer several first-round picks without having to worry about dipping too far into their own selections.

Putting all of these moves together is pretty uninspiring from a distance, but it’s good asset management from the C’s on a night where they proved unable to move up to make a bigger splash in the top-5. Saying goodbye to Baynes is tough but there was a method to the madness behind the deal. The question now is whether the front office can make the best of it going forward.