A disastrous 12 months: Five thoughts on Al Horford's departure and what the Celtics do next

Five thoughts on the fallout Al Horford informing the Celtics that he plans on signing with a new team when free agency hits on July 1.

1. Make no mistake, this offseason is a disaster for the Celtics.

Twelve months ago, the Celtics were the favorites in the Eastern Conference. Now, they have no direct path to contention as the team’s top two players appear poised to walk out the door in free agency with no return. There is no way to spin that kind of development in a positive light if you are the Celtics, based on the position the team was in one year ago. They bet on and believed in Kyrie Irving in the midst of a tumultuous season in which chemistry problems were apparent from the start but weren't addressed despite the obvious friction. Irving’s departure would have been one thing on its own, but the collateral damage caused by Horford walking out the door (something Irving's exit led to) leaves the Celtics with nothing to show for its two best players. Danny Ainge has made a history of doing everything he can to cash in on top players to avoid losing them without compensation. He traded Kendrick Perkins during a contending window eight years ago partially due to the fact that the Celtics weren’t going to be able to afford him in the offseason. Now, with Irving and Horford out the door for nothing, the franchise will likely take years to recover from the damage done by their unexpected departures. This type of scenario was not adequately accounted for with how last year was handled and there is plenty of blame to go around for that, from top to bottom.

2. It’s hard to blame Horford for walking away.

Horford was candid all year long with BostonSportsJournal.com with his priorities about contending at age 33. After watching his co-star walk out the door before free agency began, Horford had a decision to make. If he still wanted to win it all, the draw of Boston was going to be pretty weak unless he had very high opinions of Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. The Celtics may have had similar reservations about Horford’s eventual upside over a long-term deal and league sources indicate there were disagreements about both the length and annual salary in negotiations between the two sides. When the Celtics did not give Horford what he wanted immediately during initial extension talks, there was no reason for Horford's agent not to explore the open market for the big man, especially with the lack of win-now improvements on tap in Boston (i.e. no Anthony Davis trade). Once Horford’s reps dipped his foot in free agency waters, there were enough bites for him to find a location and offer that could be appealing. Perhaps as a negotiation tactic, Horford’s agent informed the Celtics he was gone on Tuesday, but the truth is it was always going to be tough to bring him back when the team let him listen to other teams with better plans to sell Horford. Ainge doesn't have much to point to now when it comes to a contending core for the near term. If the Celtics wanted to keep him, they needed to give him exactly what he wanted and that was something the team was hesitant to commit to.

3. The Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson injuries probably hurt the Celtics’ chances of retaining Horford at a reasonable cost.

League sources indicate that the Celtics did want Horford back despite their unwillingness to sign him to a four-year contract at market rate ($20-plus million). The problem for Boston, on top of losing their ability to sell a winner, was that the free agent market this summer was not going to be as rich with healthy top talent as originally thought. Durant and Thompson are more likely to stay with the Warriors now after suffering season-ending injuries in the NBA Finals, while several other potential max free agents (Kemba Walker, Jimmy Butler, Khris Middleton) that have very high odds of remaining with their current teams. That fact means there are going to be win-now teams with tons of cap space (Lakers, Clippers, Knicks) without enough top tier guys to spend it now. Horford is a step below a max player at this stage of his career but has one of the best skillsets for his position. He’s a unique mix in the NBA game and will be valued as such this summer when he signs his next deal

4. Expect Horford to head West.

There are a couple of teams in Los Angeles that could use Horford but one league source indicated to BostonSportsJournal.com that the Clippers have their sights set on Horford as a top target to potentially pair with Kawhi Leonard if their free agent blueprint goes to plan. That duo combined with the Clippers' role players across the roster (Lou Williams, Montrezl Harrell, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Danilo Gallinari, Landry Shamet) gives them a look of a contender right away in a wide open Western Conference if the front office can execute. Almost any playoff team will be in the mix for Horford and the Celtics will likely hope that Horford wants to go to a team without cap room so they can potentially field some assets in a sign-and-trade involving the big man.

5. The Celtics can open up major cap room now, but what can they do with it?

The Celtics find themselves in no man’s land a little bit after Horford’s departure. They have enough talent to be a playoff team in a subpar Eastern Conference but there is no true path towards contention until Tatum or Brown make sizable leaps. In the meantime, the Celtics will have the ability to open up max cap room ($34 million) if they stash or trade draft picks, near-max room if they use the picks ($28 million) or moderate cap room ($19 million) if they elect to keep restricted free agents rights on Terry Rozier. The Celtics’ strategy with that cap room will be telling over the next two weeks as they do their best pivot to a brand new youth-oriented plan. A young guy like Clint Capela is worth keeping an eye on as well with a big hole in the middle. Will they focus on asset collection in the short-term by taking on overpriced contracts from desperate teams into their cap room? Will they try to sign an emerging young talent on the free agent market to a big deal to grow with Brown and Tatum? Will they stick to bargain contracts that will allow them to rehabilitate value and gain more assets by flipping them later? The gameplan will become far more clear on Thursday night but every option is in play now. Danny Ainge and his staff have had a bad run at the poker table and they will have to be at their best to try to minimize the damage of what is guaranteed to be a high stakes loss.