Robb: Celtics bet on themselves by passing on Anthony Davis gamble

Danny Ainge and the Celtics aren’t afraid of risk. They also aren’t reckless in the face of adversity. Both of those things remain true in the wake of the Lakers landing Anthony Davis on Saturday for a blockbuster haul that includes Brandon Ingram, Lonzo Ball, Josh Hart, the No. 4 overall pick in 2019, two future unprotected first round picks and two first-round pick swaps.

Davis was a prominent part of an original masterplan for the Celtics before the team’s season came to an embarrassing halt at the conclusion of the Eastern Conference Semifinals in May. Kyrie Irving was at the forefront of the disappointment in that series and his effort (or lack thereof) may become what he’s remembered for as a Celtic while walking out the door and dragging down the odds the C's could justify trading for Davis in the process.

Beyond Irving’s subpar play, the Celtics learned more about themselves in that series against the Bucks, though, and all season long to a certain degree: This group wasn’t as good as most internally thought it would be. Combine that fact with the top of the Eastern Conference making some huge strides this season and the C's in effect wasted a crucial opportunity. The Celtics did not play their best all year long but even if they had, there was no guarantee they would have gotten out of the East.

This was the unfortunate backdrop that the Celtics had to navigate as they began their timeline of decisionmaking for this offseason. With Irving giving the C’s no promises about his future even if the team landed Davis, any risk the Celtics were willing to take for just one guaranteed year of Davis could have quickly turned disastrous. A Celtics team with Davis and no Irving would have contended in the Eastern Conference but there were no guarantees they could have beaten the Bucks, Sixers or Raptors. In fact, they probably wouldn’t have been favored right now against Milwaukee or the Raptors with the increased odds that Kawhi Leonard may return to Toronto.

The fact remains that Ainge has always been hesitant about giving up elite talent for a potential rental. It’s part of the main reason why Paul George and Leonard were not Celtics during the past three seasons. Ainge may have misplayed a couple of those situations in hindsight, but he wasn’t going to let that force him into a desperate play for a situation in which the Celtics weren’t immediately transformed into a title favorite. Given the high price that Boston would have had to pay in terms of player and picks for Davis, there wasn’t going to be enough leftover for the Celtics to feel good about their standing in the East with no guarantees about Irving's status.

A lot of things changed on the NBA landscape in the past two months that went against the Celtics and helped contribute to that uncertainty. The price of doing business with the Pelicans went up on lottery night on Boston when one of their main competitors (the Lakers) got an unexpected boost to their draft capital with the No. 4 overall pick instead of No. 11. Combine that fact with the very real notion that the NBA title is up for grabs during the 2019-20 season with Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson likely at less than full strength and it quickly became a bit easier for the Lakers to justify giving up a massive haul that the Celtics elected not to match. LeBron James does not have much time to wait to contend again at age 35 and the addition of the No. 4 overall pick allowed the Lakers to keep one more key potential role piece (Kyle Kuzma) in negotiations that could help the Lakers contend next year. Starting from essentially scratch with James and Davis would have been a very tough sell. It gets a little easier to swallow by maintaining a legitimate No. 3 scoring option.

The Lakers also have the added upside of free agency to potentially add a third star while the C’s cap situation makes adding a co-star to Davis close to impossible without Irving, limiting the possible upside for 2019-20.

The Celtics, according to league sources, understandably pulled back on their capital, as things heated up in negotiations.

Tatum was reportedly never on the table. Ainge had players and picks the Pelicans coveted but he proceeded cautiously with them, keeping specifics about who and what was offered out of print, wisely minimizing the damage control that would have to be done now. The keys to the franchise are being prepared for Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart to varying degrees as the odds all three play for the Celtics next year just skyrocketed.

Ultimately, keeping that trio is the decision most Celtics fans wanted to see for next season. After a year of high expectations and less satisfying basketball, most wanted to see a team that would fight for each other again, something that was missing for much of the year. Paying a high price for a player whose agent said he will merely be a rental was always going to be a tough sell in Boston for understandable reasons. Doing so in the wake of last year would have been an invitation for a potential PR disaster, despite the possible upside. While some people compared this situation to the KG trade in 2007, this was a far different equation. The Celtics made a move then to appeal to Garnett (trading for Ray Allen) after he said no originally and also had a good friend (Paul Pierce) committed to the team already. Irving provided no such support for the C's in recruiting Davis and there was no possibility Davis was going to sign an extension (something Garnett did immediately after the trade).

Now, the Celtics will at least be able to try to regain their identity of fighters under Brad Stevens that led to a lot of this region falling in love with this group during the 2017 and 2018 postseasons. The biggest question now for the short term is whether that young emerging core is enough to convince Al Horford to stick around in Boston. The Boston Globe reported Saturday that his player option deadline is Tuesday for his $30.1 million salary, although that date can be pushed back. The Celtics have a host of picks to be creative in the days leading up to the draft night to bring in some win-now talent to help convince Horford to stay. The potential upside of this group for 2019-20 will fluctuate in a big way with Horford’s decision.

Either way, Stevens won’t have to walk on eggshells and manage egos as much with Davis and Irving out of the picture. Life becomes much tougher for Stevens if Horford doesn’t return to the fold but he will have an easier time coaching the team his way now no matter what. Keeping egos in check and holding people accountable works better when you don’t have to cater to stars that are flight risks. Some of the C’s identity may have been sacrificed at times last year due to the fact.

Now, the Celtics go back to the drawing board and have to get very creative if they want to get better right away. Their title odds dropped from 12/1 to 16/1 already after Davis went elsewhere and it’s hard to find clear paths to improvement for the franchise during what will be a momentous offseason. The work starts now with maintaining Horford as an asset and maximizing three first-round picks on Thursday night.

The window to contend for Boston could still be open to some degree in the East, depending on if Leonard leaves Toronto and if the Bucks lose a key piece or two (Khris Middleton?) in free agency. The Celtics will always have a chance against the Sixers in a series as long as Horford is around as well. There is no obvious play now beyond keeping Horford so the front office will need to be diligent with the limited options they have to work with. Without a clear cut star alternatives left to pursue in free agency, every little move matters more than ever now as the C’s try to get back towards contending. Tatum, Brown and Smart have all showed the ability to help bring this team towards the top tier (albeit against a much weaker East). Just how much each of those guys progresses this offseason (along with the recovery of Gordon Hayward) will tell us just how high the ceiling for this group can ultimately be.