Danny Ainge pulled no punches when discussing the magnitude of the Celtics offseason this week at the Auerbach Center.
“It’s big,” he explained. “I mean, every offseason is big. You’re making personnel decisions and making draft picks and free-agent signings, it’s always big. There’s just more of it this year, so it’s bigger than a normal year.”
The vast number of possibilities for the franchise is a stark change from a relatively simple gameplan in the past two seasons, whether that was retaining current players or targeting an elite free agent or two.
“Last summer was busy and we just had Marcus (Smart) and Aron (Baynes) really to sort of clean up their -- we didn’t know if we’d get them back,” Ainge said. “We wanted them back. This year’s way more complicated. We always talk about, there’s A-to-Z. Really there's usually A-to-G or E. This year there definitely is A-to-Z. We’re preparing for any of those options.”
In order to get a better sense of how the Celtics will be able to manage those options as the NBA offseason calendar progresses, let’s explore the offseason timeline for Boston, singling out some critical decision deadline days as the team tries to map out a future that likely will not contain Kyrie Irving.
June 20: NBA Draft
This day will serve in all likelihood as a deadline for an Anthony Davis trade agreement if it follows trends in league history for superstar deals. Generally, there is always more assets available than at any point of the year on draft night (i.e. draft picks) and given the amount of serious draft compensation will be involved in any Davis deal, the Pelicans will be best served to make the move on this night. If New Orleans wants to pick the players they want with any acquired picks, they need an agreement in place before the draft. Otherwise, they will be forced to rely on the uncertainty of future picks along with players as a trade package. Whether or not the Celtics acquire Davis, they will have four selections on draft night (No. 14, 20, 22, 51), the third highest number of selections in the league. Odds are strongly in favor of a trade or two being made by Boston on this night (or prior to it). The question is whether it will be pick consolidation or a bigger splash like Davis.
June 29: Player options decision due from Aron Baynes ($5.45 million), Al Horford ($30.1 million) and Kyrie Irving ($21.3 million)
There will be no real drama here with the Irving decision (he will opt out). Whether or not he has notified the Celtics of his intentions about staying long-term or not will be the bigger question at this point in the process.
Horford and Baynes may wait patiently to make their own decisions until Irving’s future becomes more clear, particularly if they are intent on competing on a contender next year. The Celtics future plans will have already come into focus a bit on draft night with their decisions though. Boston will also have the ability to negotiate a long-term deal in place of a one-year contract with either Baynes or Horford prior to a decision. Baynes is likely to take the money (he may not make more on the open market) while Horford’s feelings about remaining in Boston will be a pivotal moment for the offseason. He doesn’t have to answer them entirely on June 29, but his intentions will become far more clear by that deadline.
June 30: Deadline to offer a qualifying offer to restricted free agents, start of free agency moratorium
Terry Rozier is expected to get a qualifying offer worth $4.29 million on this date which would officially make him a restricted free agent for Boston. There are a couple other potential restricted free agents for Boston including Daniel Theis and Brad Wanamaker. Theis ($1.8 million) will be an intriguing case since that decision will probably tell us about his plans about remaining in the states or heading back to Europe. Meanwhile, Wanamaker is unlikely to receive a qualifying offer due to his age and the fact that he’s not expected to earn more than the league minimum next year anyway if he remains in the NBA.
At 6 p.m. on the 30th, the free agency moratorium period will officially begin. At that point, free agents can start talking to teams besides their own and reach verbal agreements. Teams can also sign players to rookie contracts while restricted free agents can sign offer sheets with other teams.
July 6: Free agency moratorium ends at noon
Players can now start officially signing contracts with their new teams. Additionally, the two-day matching period begins for the original team of any restricted free agent that signs an offer sheet with another team during the moratorium. This could be a critical period for Boston when it comes to deciding what to do with Rozier if he has found interest on the open market.
July 13: Last day for teams to withdraw a qualifying offer to restricted free agents
This probably won’t come into play for Boston but there have past occasions when a team has taken off the restricted free agency tag in order to help improve a player’s market if they weren’t going to stay put in their original destination. Boston did it with Kelly Olynyk in 2016 while the Bucks pulled the qualifying tag off Jabari Parker last year before he signed with the Bucks.
July 31: First possible day draft picks that are signed on July 1 are eligible to be traded.
Players who sign rookie contracts are eligible to be dealt 30 days after signing their deals. In a scenario during which some of a rookie’s salary is used as salary matching for part of a bigger trade, this is the earliest date that transaction could become official, although it could drag into August if a rookie doesn’t sign their deal until later in July.
An example of this happened with the Kyrie Irving trade in the summer of August 2017. Part of that reason that deal occurred in August officially was since Ante Zizic’s salary needed to be used to make the money work in the deal and he hadn’t signed his contract since mid-July.
NBA News and Notes
- A well-deserved extension was awarded to Bucks general manager Jon Horst after he put together a roster that brought the Bucks within two games of the NBA Finals. Horst has his work cut out for him this offseason though with several key contributors expected to hit the open market including Khris Middleton, Brook Lopez, Nikola Mirotic and George Hill. Milwaukee probably doesn't have the payroll to keep all of them, especially since Middleton is projected to command a max deal. him wa
- Flip flop by former Celtic Dwight Powell who is expected to opt into a $10 million player option too before signing a long-term extension with the Mavericks. He's an emerging talent at power forward but a lack of reliable outside shooting for him makes opting in a smarter choice for him. Hard to see him getting more than the mid-level exception if he had opted out.
- Vince Carter announced that his next season will be his final one in the NBA after playing 22 seasons. The 42-year-old was a useful contributor for the Hawks last year and the shooting guard announced that they will have first crack at retaining him next year.
- There are less than two weeks until the NBA Draft and the Wizards still don't have a new general manager after firing Ernie Grunfeld at the end of the seasons. Rumors continue to swirl about them pursuing Masai Ujiri but it's hard to see him walking away from a contender for a brutal rebuilding job without a massive raise.
- I would be shocked if minority owner Mark Stevens isn't forced to sell his stake in the Warriors after his run-in with Kyle Lowry on the sideline this week. That's a black eye on the franchise that they will want to get rid of even after Stevens received a year suspension from the league for his shove on Lowry
- A couple of potential cheap point guard names to monitor on the Celtics front in free agency: Ricky Rubio, who was told by the Jazz that he will not be brought back. Additionally, intentional free agent Nando De Colo has expressed interest in coming back to the NBA after spending a few years with the Spurs earlier this decade.
