Now that the first-year amateur draft is out of the way, expect that trade talk will begin in earnest around baseball.
That's traditionally been the case in recent years -- once the draft is done, executives start to focus more on the needs of their major league clubs. They're no longer distracted by the demands of the draft, or sifting through scouting reports or medical records and it's time to focus.
By then, the season is beginning to approach the halfway point in games played and the sample size is big enough to begin proper evaluations. Soon, the questions start to get asked: What do we need? What are our weaknesses? How can we improve?
This year, however, there's a new urgency that comes with that calculus.
For the first time, waiver deals will not be permitted after July 31. No longer will teams be able to make a late addition or put off doing something at the end of July in the hopes of getting more clarity about whether your team is an actual contender or merely hovering near .500.
Now, that luxury is gone. Without the option of August deals, teams need to make their determinations sooner. And that, in turn, could lead to an uptick in talks and even deals, with some envisioning more trades than normal before the All-Star break.
"It's hard to say,'' ventured one MLB executive. "I think everyone is going to be watching closely to see what happens with this (change). It could go either way -- you could have teams being more aggressive, knowing that this (July 31 deadline) is their only opportunity. Or, you could see teams wait until the last minute before determining if they're going to add.
"This is a test case I guess '' added another front office person, "and nobody's sure how it's going to play out.''
In other words, it could break either way. There could be a rash of deals, with some clubs willing to "jump the line'' and pull off trades earlier. In those scenarios, if teams start to drift out of contention as July 31 draws closer, they could shift to seller mode quickly and deal off the players they acquired earlier. (We nearly saw a version of that last summer when Washington obtained reliever Kelvin Herrera from Kansas City, then debated moving him a month later before ultimately deciding to retain him).
Either way, the chatter has begun — even about the Red Sox.
With six weeks to go, it's impossible to know what further needs could develop for the Red Sox. Injuries can always play a part and a position that looks well-stocked now could be thinned in a hurry. For instance, if Mitch Moreland is out for an extended period with his pulled quad muscle and Steve Pearce can't resume doing damage against lefties, the Sox could well be in search of a first baseman next month.
For now, however, it's likely that priority will be the bullpen. Even if they're happy with three or four late-inning relievers (Matt Barnes, Brandon Workman, Marcus Walden and perhaps Heath Hembree), the Sox could surely use another high-leverage option to augment the current group.
Here are a handful who figure to be available:
Shane Greene, Detroit: Dave Dombrowski knows him well, of course, having traded for him when he was with the Tigers. Greene may not profile as your typical closer. But as we know, the Red Sox aren't necessarily in need of a typical closer and are more interested in getting arms who have had late-inning success rather than worrying about roles or titles.
Ken Giles, Toronto: After a couple of lose seasons, Giles has seemingly found himself this year. His makeup could be a question, but there's no doubting the quality of stuff, the velocity of his fastball, or his results (1.08; 1.040 WHIP).
Ian Kennedy, Kansas City: Kennedy is a bit of an outlier, as he's traditionally been a starter. This season, he's pitching out of the bullpen and his stuff is playing up as a result (11.2 strikeouts per nine innings). There's one big impediment to a deal here: Kennedy is owed another $16.5 million next season and it's hard to envision the Sox taking that kind of salary commitment on.
Mychal Givens, Baltimore: Givens is not having a strong season (5.00 ERA), but the Sox have liked him enough to target him in the past. Another plus: Givens has shown the ability to pitch multiple innings, so while he doesn't profile necessarily as a high-leverage option, he could still be of some value to the Sox. And, obviously, the rebuilding Orioles will move (almost) anybody and everybody.
Will Smith, San Francisco: The Red Sox sniffed around on Smith last summer before deciding to fill other needs (infield, rotation). There are two factors that make him appealing: he's lefthanded and has an affordable salary ($4.2 million).
There are several more relievers who could become available unless their teams make a big push in the next month. Cleveland's Brad Hand is an intriguing power lefty, but the Indians aren't about to wave the white flag yet on this season, knowing that this could be their last chance at a playoff spot for a while.
Others who might move into the "make-us-an-offer'' category: Sean Doolittle, Washington; Archie Bradley, Arizona; and Alex Colome, White Sox.
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