Exploring potential point guard trade targets if Kyrie walks

The Celtics will have a number of different paths they can go down this offseason, but nearly all of them start with the future of Kyrie Irving. The odds continue to lean against the free-agent-to-be returning to Boston, which will put the team in a tough position as free agency begin if he does indeed walk.

If Irving does decide to depart, the first course of business Danny Ainge would likely pursue is finding some reinforcements at the position. Terry Rozier could certainly be retained to help fill that void in restricted free agency but it’s unclear whether the team wants to go down that road given his lackluster play this year and offseason comments. Point guard is one of the deepest positions around the league and the C’s can certainly do better than Rozier at the position, if they choose.

If the Celtics decide to move on from Rozier, they could look to trade or free agency to find some starting level talent to bring in to play alongside or behind Marcus Smart at the spot. Today, we are going to go through a host of possibilities for the C’s based on a specific scenario: the creation of an Irving trade exception for $20.1 million after he finds a new home on a team with cap space. A trade exception is far from a guarantee to happen if Irving walks since Irving and a new team would have to agree to a sign-and-trade and Boston would have to add enough sweetener (i.e. draft picks) to make it worth their while. A division rival like Brooklyn or New York may just prefer not to do business with Boston altogether and leave them in a tougher spot to improve.

If Ainge manages to pull off an Irving sign-and-trade, however, the C’s would be able to absorb a salary of $20.1 million or less (for one player) for one year, assuming they receive no salary back as part of the deal. While they would not necessarily have to use that to trade for a point guard, there are a number of point guards that could be available for discount prices in that price range. Since Boston’s front office would have to include draft compensation to complete a sign-and-trade with Irving (in order to get the other team to go along with it), trading for an overpaid guard would be an easy way to fill the void without giving up much more in the way of compensation. So what type of names would be available for the Celtics if they go down this win-now path after Irving’s departure? Let’s break down some trade options for a potential exception:

Would cost Celtics an asset

Goran Dragic
Age: 33
Contract: Player option for $19.2 million (By July 1st)
Overview: This will only be a possibility for the Celtics if Dragic opts in, although some type of sign-and-trade could be negotiated as well if Dragic is pursued by Boston as a free agent. While the 6-foot-3 guard is coming off an injury-riddled season (36 games), he’s just one year removed from an All-Star season. He’s an above-average 3-point shooter, gets to the free throw line at a good clip and is a strong floor general for an offense that is predicated on pace and space like the Celtics. His durability and defense are the biggest concerns at this stage of his career but playing him alongside someone like Smart could help ease those issues.

The Heat are already loaded with bad contracts and are nearing luxury tax territory, so they could be looking to flip Dragic for an asset (protected first round pick?) in order to help clear their books. With no real chance of contending in Miami anytime soon, their best bet back to prominence is to start opening some salary cap space, which makes a 33-year-old Dragic an unlikely candidate for a long-term deal in Miami, even if he opts out.

Dragic is certainly a downgrade from Irving but he would provide a lot more of a scoring punch than anything the C’s could get on the open market at the position with this exception. If the Celtics front office is intent on winning now even while Irving departs, Dragic is the type of player that fits the bill.

Point guards Celtics could target on while also gaining an asset as part of the deal

This scenario involves less appealing alternatives for the C’s at the point guard position. All of these guys were good to get paid at some point (to varying degrees) but most have fallen off in recent years compared to their salary due to injuries or just a lack of production. The main goal here for Boston would be gaining a trade chip with both their salary as possible future trade filler, as well as additional compensation (i.e. draft pick(s) in order to take on a bloated contract into a trade exception. The added upside for Boston would be the possibility of one of these guys having a bounce-back year in Brad Stevens’ system, but that would be far from a guarantee. They all have their warts despite their starter-level salaries. A closer look at a few options:

Tyler Johnson
Age: 26
Contract: $19.2 million (one year left)
Overview: The hard-nosed 6-foot-4 guard is still reaping the benefits of a four-year poison pill contract that the Heat elected to match in the summer of 2016. He was salary dumped to Phoenix in a trade last February and the Suns would surely be happy to do the same with him now since he’s worth maybe half of his contract. That’s not to say Johnson can’t be a useful player. He plays hard, can be a solid shooter (36 percent from 3), but he lacks the athleticism to keep up with quicker guards defensively and his passing vision isn’t strong for a point guard. He’s not really a starter-level talent but can be a strong contributor off the bench in the right system. The Celtics nearly signed him once as an undrafted rookie before he landed in Miami so they have been a fan of his over the years.

Jeff Teague
Age: 30
Contract: $19 million (one year left)
Overview: The one-time All-Star played just 42 games last season due to ankle surgery in a disappointing year in Minnesota. Teague plays very unselfishly with one of the highest assist rates for a point guard in the league, navigating the pick-and-roll quite well for years with Al Horford in Atlanta before heading north to Minnesota. However, he’s starting to decline a bit as he gets into his 30s. He’s a poor finisher at the rim (although he does draw contact well in the paint) and he’s been an average low volume 3-point shooter for much of his career, routinely looking hesitant even when taking open looks. Defensively, Teague tends to get stuck on screens a lot and offers little in the way of rebounding and other intangibles. His size (6-foot-2) makes him a target for opponents as well after switches. Still, this might be the best pure point guard on this list after Dragic. Teague would get the ball moving well in Boston and get into the paint regularly, which is something this team could use more of given their isolation issues at times last year. The Wolves will likely be eager to move him as well given their limited payroll flexibility. It would not be a surprise to see them include a pick with Teague if they did not have to take back any money as part of the trade.

Thanks but no thanks

Same description as above but the type of player that wouldn't be worth dealing for, even with promises of an asset included.

Dennis Schroder
Age: 25
Contract: Two years left at $15.5 million each
Overview: The money fits here but there’s not enough to like about the player to make a deal. He’s a subpar 3-point shooter (32 percent for his career) who also is not a good finisher at the rim. Given those flaws and the length of his contract, the C’s would need to have to get serious compensation in addition to him in order to take on this deal. Otherwise, Boston would be better off keeping Rozier for a fraction of the price.

Reggie Jackson
Age: 29
Contract: One year left at $19 million
Overview: One of the more disappointing players in the league over the past few seasons when you consider the size of his deal. Jackson was finally healthy enough to play 82 games last year and had a good season as a high volume shooter from 3-point range (37 percent), but his track record in that area is spotty. The Pistons have routinely been better without him on the floor during his last three years in Detroit and he has always been known for his questionable shot selection and spotty defense. There’s not much upside here compared to Rozier so it’s hard to see the C’s going this route even if they get some sweetener for taking him on.

Worth mentioning but a long shot 

D'Angelo Russell
Age: 23
Contract: Restricted free agent
Overview: The only way the Celtics could land Russell would be in a sign-and-trade with Brooklyn but that scenario only is possible if the Nets are moving on from him in order to make room to sign two max free agents. Even in that case, they might just make Russell an unrestricted free agent (giving him a chance to sign anywhere) or try to seek out other assets for him in a sign-and-trade for a team with cap room. If the Celtics offer enough, they could be in the mix for him (i.e. Irving and pick(s) for Russell) but the odds are that Brooklyn will try to send their young point guard elsewhere rather than helping out a division rival that just lost an All-Star.