With just seven players currently under contract for the Celtics heading into the 2019-20 season, there will be plenty of opportunity for change this offseason as Danny Ainge attempts to build a contender yet again.
To sort through it all, let’s take a closer look at the players under team control in our second part of the 2019 Celtics trade value power rankings. We’ll continue to count down the list in the coming weeks, working up to top assets on the roster, highlighting the type of talent they could fetch (if anything) and the likelihood of said players being moved. Since the Celtics also have three first-round draft picks, we will include those picks in the rankings as a reference point.
Criteria: This isn’t simply ranking the best-to-worst players on the roster. There is significantly more that goes into a player’s trade value around the league than just talent (although that’s important). A player’s age, contract situation and injury history are all vital factors. Multiple scouts from around the league were consulted as this list was put together.
Part 1
7. Gordon Hayward
Age: 29
2019-20 salary: $32.7 million
Remaining contract: Two years, $67 million (player option for final season)
2018-19 stats: 25.9 mpg, 11.5 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 3.4 apg, 46.6% FG (72 games)
Overview: It’s highly unlikely that Hayward will stay in this spot for more than this offseason but after a up-and-down regular season and tough close to the postseason, he currently looks like one of the most overpaid players in the NBA. Most of that is beyond his control given the nature of his ankle injury but it’s a label that he is going to have to shed with improved play next year. A clean bill of health heading into the offseason should help a lot on that front. Hayward already talked about how eager he is to focus strictly on improving his game rather than rehab for an offseason and he will surely be a motivated piece for the Celtics over the next few months.
In the meantime, he will be taking up a sizable chunk of the Celtics payroll, which will make him a challenge to move in any situation. Given that his contract value is very low (due to his high salary and performance dropoff), it’s highly unlikely the C’s even explore moving him this offseason since it probably would cost them an additional asset in order to do so. There’s plenty of confidence within the organization that Hayward will have a bounce back year and the signals the Celtics would send around the league by trading a free agent just halfway into his max deal (after a horrific injury) would not be ideal for future pursuits. If Hayward’s money is needed as part of a deal to match money for a star (Anthony Davis, Kevin Durant in a long shot sign-and-trade), the C’s won’t hesitate to pull the trigger. Otherwise, the smart money is on them standing pat.
Still, it’s a bit shocking to see Hayward this low on the list. There’s no question that some teams
(i.e. smaller markets with max cap room) may be willing to take a shot on him as a low-risk, high-reward acquisition. It would be far easier for a team to trade for Robert Williams (making under $2 million) than Hayward, but the upside would be far greater with Hayward in the right situation. For that reason, he gets the nod above Williams in the rankings, even though there is little doubt that some teams would prefer Timelord due to the smaller salary involved. With just two years remaining, Hayward's contract shouldn’t be a major burden on the Celtics or any other franchise over the long haul. He showed promising stretches in the second half of the year and was an all-around net positive after the All-Star Break, before a brutal series against the Bucks. The outside shooting (33 percent from 3-point range) will need to improve, as will his aggressiveness on the offensive end. More confidence and a new set of teammates next year should help him plenty on that front.
What could Celtics get for him? Salary relief (if a team with cap room likes him).
6. No. 20 (via LA Clippers) and No. 22 picks
Overview: I’m going to bunch these two picks together given how close they are to each other. There has been quite the mix of studs (Caris LaVert, Jarrett Allen) and duds (Malachi Richardson) found in these slots over the last few seasons, which is par for the course with any selection in the 20s during an NBA Draft. The allure of the mystery box or unknown usually takes precedence for teams in the draft, which would make picks in this range more valuable than a player with potential and flaws who was selected a year earlier in a similar range. Most teams, when given the choice, will believe in their ability to identify young talent rather than try to turn around a player with question marks with one less year on his deal.
Given the unspectacular nature of the talent pool in the 2019 draft according to scouts, this will be a tough spot for the C’s to gain value. The odds are in favor of these selections being included in a trade in any potential blockbuster deal as sweetener, but their value in such a form will be limited. While the cost control is always welcome (starting salary of under $2 million for each), the value of said pieces on a team that is trying to contend is limited. There is always the draft-and-stash route but that has been a relative dead end for the C’s in this range (Zizic, Yabusele) in recent years. Barring a commitment to a youth movement (something that is unlikely to be determined in full on draft night) it would not surprise me to see the Celtics eventually taking these picks for someone else on June 20, even if that deal does not come to fruition until later in the summer.
5. No. 14 pick (via Sacramento)
Overview: This has not been a kind spot in the draft since 2001 as no All-Star talent has been drafted in this position. That’s not to say those type of players haven’t been available at No. 14 (Giannis Antetokounmpo was taken at No. 15 in 2013) but a long list of franchises have come up empty in recent years. Denzel Valentine and Cameron Payne highlight the list of recent busts while Marcus Morris and Bam Adebayo have been solid role contributors taken in this range. Michael Porter Jr. is a big unknown after being taken at No. 14 for the Nuggets last year.
The general consensus for the 2019 draft class after talking with scouts is that there is not a whole lot of separation in talent level in the teens, which again makes this pick a likely one to move for Boston, if only to add additional assets for another deal. The cost of moving up one spot in this range is generally a pair of second-round picks, while the Suns coughed up an unprotected first from Miami (2021) in order to get up from No. 16 to No. 10 in 2018. It’s unlikely the Celtics will be able to get that kind of haul for moving down a few spots this year but it’s still a lottery pick and teams can fall in love with a guy at this spot. If the C’s aren’t pulling the trigger on a blockbuster deal on draft night with this asset, I’d expect Danny Ainge to get creative with this Kings pick that many were anticipating would be in the top-5 for 2019 before the season began.
Part 3 of the trade value rankings coming later this week
Other NBA News and Notes
- The Clippers are surely happy to pay Doc Rivers’ $50,000 fine for comparing Kawhi Leonard to Michael Jordan during some NBA Finals analysis this week. It must be scary times in LA to a degree with their No. 1 target looking more likely to consider staying in Toronto by the day.
- The meeting with Anthony Davis this week for the Pelicans went, reportedly, as expected. The Pelicans side of things continues to insist they haven’t given up on keeping him. The Davis camp is telling a different tune. Don’t let David Griffin’s posturing fool you: If Davis doesn’t sign an extension this summer, he’s going to be dealt. The risks are just too high for New Orleans to do otherwise.
- A lot of noise on Friday after a tweet from Steve Kyler about the C’s pursuing other options besides Kyrie/AD in the offseason. I wouldn’t put much credibility behind this report. Of course the Celtics are going to explore alternative scenarios but you can bet their top priority right now is pursuing this type of Plan A scenario. If and when Irving tells them he’s planning on going elsewhere is when they will pivot. From what I’ve been told, that has not happened.
- There will be 88 underclassmen in this year’s draft for 60 draft slots after the NCAA deadline past. It remains incredibly silly to me that guys can’t go back to the NCAA after going undrafted. A lot of these youngsters will be heading to pro leagues overseas but one of many things that need to be addressed by this system.
- Likely top lottery picks Ja Morant and Cam Reddish will be undergoing minor surgeries this week. Hopefully both will be back in time for Summer League in July.