Marcus Smart is a key trade chip for Celtics, but giving him up won't be an easy choice

When Marcus Smart inked a four-year deal last July with the Celtics, his agent Happy Walters made no secret about the potential end game for the point guard.

“I think it’s a good contract for both parties. It’s certainly a tradeable contract if it ever needs to be,” Walters told BSJ last summer. “Hopefully, it won’t be. Marcus feels really good about it and is excited.”

Nearly one year later, Smart’s contract is one of the few things about the 2018-19 season that went well for the Celtics. The $52 million pact turned from a potential overpay last summer to one of the best value contracts in the NBA for a player that’s not on a rookie contract. It looks even better today in the wake of Smart earned All-Defensive honors for the first time in his career on Wednesday, a well-deserved honor which was certainly helped by his insertion into the starting five last November.

For a Celtics team that will be in need of some change for the 2019-20 season, Smart has the potential to be a crucial part of the roster. Beyond his defensive excellence, he made huge strides on the offensive end last season, shooting a career-high 36.4 percent from 3-point range, lowering his turnover rate and showing off much better shot selection with reduced usage. The only true pitfall of his campaign was an ill-timed oblique injury in game No. 81, which made him miss seven postseason games and look very rusty (1-of-11 from field) in Games 4 and 5 against Milwaukee. The team clearly missed his grit against the Bucks as the inability to slow down guards like George Hill and Pat Connaughton ultimately led to an ugly defeat and potentially big changes to the roster for next year.

The tricky part now for Danny Ainge and company is figuring out the best way to proceed and upgrade a roster with a star. Any trade for a high salaried player (over $20 million) is going to involve tough choices and they begin with Smart, Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum.

There’s no question that Tatum clearly has the most value around the league among all three prospects after BSJ polled multiple league executives. That's no surprise when you factor in his age, salary and potential upside. After that? The second most valuable young piece on the C’s roster gets a little hazy.

Before the season started, Brown was the slam dunk choice for No. 2 after a breakout 2017-18 campaign. He made a huge impact on both ends during a run to the Eastern Conference Finals, silencing concerns about his 3-point shooting (39 percent) while excelling in an expanded role.

Last year was a different story for the 22-year-old. Brown lost his starting job to Smart 25 games into the season after an injury and never got it back until the postseason. Smart became a favorite of Kyrie Irving for his willingness to do the dirty work and take off some of the ballhandling onus off the All-Star and it was evident great chemistry formed between the duo in the backcourt.

While Brown’s shooting averages (34 percent from 3) fell back to earth, Smart surpassed Brown as a shooter for at least one year. Smart’s defense and passing ability made him a better all-around player last year than the third-year guard, at least from a Celtics perspective. Brown played far better in the final four months of the season and into the postseason as he admirably accepted his supporting role (to a far better degree than a lot of his younger teammates) but he still wasn’t as important to Smart to this group's success. That became incredibly evident during the second-round loss to the Bucks, especially on the defensive end.

All of this now serves as a crucial backdrop to a challenging choice for the Celtics front office this summer. Assuming that Tatum is on the table for an Anthony Davis trade (or another highly paid All-Star), one of Brown or Smart will need to be included for salary matching purposes. Smart was always a logical choice to include due to his contract but his play this season and bargain deal should give the C’s pause. Here’s a look at the two contracts along with stats for Smart and Brown for the foreseeable future

Marcus Smart:



2019-20: $12.6 million (Age 25 season)
2020-21: $13.4 million (Age 26 season)
2021-22: $14.3 million (Age 27 season)

Jaylen Brown



2019-20: $6.5 million (Age 23 season)
2020-21: ??? (Age 24 season)
2021-22: ??? (Age 25 season)

2018-19 Smart net rating: +5.6
2018-19 Brown net rating: +3.0

The Celtics have the ability to offer Brown a contract extension starting on July 1st, but it’s important to note that they have not reached an extension with any player on a rookie deal since Rajon Rondo in 2009. Based on recent extensions (Gary Harris four years/$74 million extension in 2017 is probably the closest comparison based on player type), any offer that Brown is willing to accept probably will have to start around the $18-20 million mark when you factor in the rising salary cap and even that might be low guess.

Assuming the Celtics are bringing back Irving on a max deal for this exercise (a big if), they are going to have to wisely plan out their spending for the foreseeable future as the luxury tax continues to come into play. Paying Brown up to $20 million per year starting in 2020 to be a fourth or fifth option on the roster may not be as appealing to Ainge as sticking with Smart for $13 million per year. With limited shots to go around on the roster, Smart may be the better fit anyway for a group that’s built around Irving, Davis and Gordon Hayward.

With that said, there’s no denying the potential upside of Brown still remains greater than Smart at age 22. He played well this postseason with strong shooting averages (50% FG, 35% 3-pt) that helped keep the C’s in games while Irving struggled. His rebounding numbers and defense were strong as well, despite a reduced offensive rule. With more of a leading role moving forward, the case can be made that Brown will only blossom more and return to the guy we saw during his sophomore campaign

Whether or not that chance for Brown will come in Boston remains to be seen. If Irving departs, the odds are higher that Brown will stay put as the team will surely need his scoring to stay competitive in the interim (barring a huge gamble on trading for Davis). If Irving agrees to come back though (perhaps in conjunction with a trade for AD), the choice will need to be made to make the trade legal: Smart or Brown or Hayward? One will almost certainly have to go to make the money work. Hayward’s specific situation (low value currently, a contract that will cost additional assets to move, the politics of trading him) makes it more likely the choice will come down to Smart and Brown if the C’s go this route.

Smart's strong play in 2018-19 will make that a tougher call than previously anticipated. In a summer that's going to be filled with challenging decisions, this one will be at the top of the list.