Hitting the reset button after a disappointing season is not an appealing option for the Celtics franchise, largely based on the lack of a clear path towards contending while going down that road. The Celtics have built themselves up for the past five years towards a championship core and even if Kyrie Irving walks out the door in July, there will be a backup plan to stay as competitive as possible in the interim (even if the team doesn't execute it). While it’s unclear yet what the top alternatives for the Celtics are if they go down that path, one name that is sure to come up at the point guard spot is Mike Conley Jr.
The 31-year-old guard is coming off a career season for Memphis, averaging a team-high 21.1 points and 6.4 assists per game after missing nearly the entire 2017-18 campaign with a heel injury (he played just 12 games). Despite suiting up for a Memphis team that floundered in the second half of the year, falling from a potential playoff berth to the eighth worst record in the league, Conley was not one of the reasons for those struggles. He carried a heavy load on offense for an undermanned Memphis squad that was plagued by injuries and a lack of reliable talent in a loaded Western Conference.
Conley was shopped heavily ahead of the trade deadline once the Grizzlies fell out of the playoff race but with Memphis landing the No. 2 overall pick at the NBA Lottery, he seems certain to be shown the door this offseason with Ja Morant looking like the top option in that spot. If Memphis wants to go into full rebuild mode, moving on from Conley now before he gets hurt or falls off (with two years remaining on his deal) seems to be the wise path for the new management group in Memphis.
While there is no doubt to be a long list of Conley suitors this summer, the question is whether the Celtics should be one of them if Irving leaves Boston high and dry once free agency hits. A closer look at the specifics involved in such a move and whether it is a realistic option for Boston in an alternative path towards contending.
Q: What’s Conley’s contract situation?
He’s still one of the highest paid players in the league after signing a five-year extension with Memphis in 2016. Currently, he’s got two years remaining on his deal, with the final year in 2020-21 being a player option. Next season, he’s set to make $32.5 million and that number jumps up to $34.5 million in 2020-21. Conley seems very likely to pick up that option year at age 34 unless he negotiates some type of extension in which he opts out for some long-term security, in what could be a similar situation to Al Horford this offseason.
Q: What are the Celtics’ options to potentially acquire Conley?
The Celtics and Grizzlies will both be over the cap this offseason, so it’s going to take some salary matching to get any deal done. Since Conley makes so much money, there are only a couple potential realistic paths for the Celtics to acquire him via trade.
1) Trade Horford to match salaries: This won’t happen since there is no way Horford would want to go to a rebuilding squad after opting in this offseason. Additionally, keeping Horford would be essential to contending now for Boston and that's what the team would want to do if they go after Conley if Irving walks.
2) Trade younger players for Conley: This is a not good option as well, primarily due to salaries involved. Even if Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart were included that’s not enough money to match up with Conley’s $32.7 million. Additionally, that’s far too much talent to give up for a guy like Conley at this stage of his career. Giving up one of those guys (with their favorable contracts factored in) is probably too much from Boston's perspective.
3) Trade Gordon Hayward for Conley: This is the only conceivable scenario for a transaction like this involving players. Hayward’s contract is almost identical to Conley ($32.7 million) so the money works here. There’s no chance that the Grizzlies would make this type of deal straight up given how Hayward looked last season, but the Celtics could conceivably sweeten the pot with draft picks to convince the Grizzlies to make the deal.
4) Create a trade exception with a Kyrie sign-and-trade and take Conley into it:
This is worth bringing up since the Celtics have some sign-and-trade options with free agents (Irving potentially being the best possibility if the C’s can convince the team he is signing with them to take part). This would clearly only happen if Irving decides he wants to leave Boston and sign with another team.
A sign-and-trade with Irving leaving town would give the C’s a big trade exception ($32.7 million) that Conley would fit into (if the team acquiring Irving was simply taking him into cap space and not send back another player), but the C’s would probably have to include a useful asset into the deal to make it worth that team’s while. Such a scenario would look like Irving going to Team X with a draft pick. From there, a separate deal for Conley could occur with the point guard being taken into the $32.7 million trade exception by the Celtics in exchange for draft picks (with no salary matching needed).
What’s the case for trading Hayward and pick(s) for Conley?
While there is no doubt that Hayward has a higher upside (if he returns to his Utah form) for the next couple seasons, Conley feels like the more sure bet at this point given the limitations that Hayward showed in his first season back from a brutal ankle injury. The Celtics have weapons at the wing even without Hayward (Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum) and clearly saw plenty of success with that core in 2017-18. Conley isn’t a No. 1 scoring option on a contender but he is playoff proven and has the right mix of scoring and passing ability that would make him a great fit in the Celtics offense as the top guard.
Additionally, Conley provides solid defense at the point guard spot and would potentially leave the door open for the Celtics to go after Anthony Davis as well with their other assets (Tatum, leftover picks, etc.). The price for Conley shouldn’t be that high either even if Hayward is included in a deal. A mid first-round pick or two might be enough to outbid Conley’s suitors if the Grizzlies want to gamble on Hayward bouncing back (and trading him off for another asset eventually).
What’s the case against trading Hayward and pick(s) for Conley?
It’s never a great idea to sell low on an asset and that is what the Celtics would be doing here with Hayward. He sounds more motivated than ever to bounce back with a clean bill of health and while that is no guarantee to happen, there were enough promising signs during the 2018-19 campaign where some improved play can be reasonably hoped for. At age 29, Hayward also gives a couple more potential years in his prime than Conley does at age 32 if he does bounce back.
From a talent standpoint, if Irving walks, the case can be made that the Celtics are going to need both Conley and Hayward (or similar type talent) to have a chance to contend anyway with Irving out of the picture. Moving on from Hayward for Conley could be more of a step sideways than a step forward in regards to team success next year and giving up future assets (draft picks) to make that kind of move for an aging point guard has the potential to be short-sighted.
There’s also the internal politics of dealing Hayward that would need to be considered. Moving a max free agent just two years after he signed with the franchise is not a great look (even in the wake of a catastrophic injury). Additionally, I can’t imagine Brad Stevens would be in favor of moving on from one of his favorites after recruiting him to Boston just two years ago. Stevens isn’t the ultimate decision maker here but his voice in the organization is getting louder, particularly after the mess he was left with on the roster last year from a chemistry standpoint.
Q: What’s the odds of this happening?
All things considered, if the Celtics are dead set on competing next year even if Irving departs, I expect the front office to be in the mix on Conley trade talks. The most ideal possibility would be to bring him aboard without giving up Hayward (if Irving creates a trade exception when he leaves), which would allow the Celtics to simply give up picks or non-core talent upon his departure. That would maximize the veteran talent that Stevens has to work with on this roster while also leaving the door open for a deal for Davis if the C’s want to make further win-now upgrades.
Bringing aboard a guy like Conley as a Plan B could also help convince Horford to view the C’s as a contender even without Davis, which would increase the odds of him sticking around instead of jumping ship for a better chance at a ring elsewhere.
It’s hard to envision ownership letting this group go into full teardown mode already even if Irving walks. Barring that unlikely scenario, bringing aboard Conley is a realistic alternative that carries less risk (and less upside) than a blockbuster move like Davis.
Other NBA News and Notes
- Kudos to the league office for moving up the official start of NBA free agency to 6 p.m. on June 30th instead of midnight on July 1st according to reports, a move that will allow both fans and writers to analyze the first day of movement this summer without sacrificing a night of sleep.
- Some shocking news across the league on Friday as Pacers reserve guard Tyreke Evans was suspended for two years from the league for violating the league's anti-drug program. He will be eligible to apply for reinstatement in two years. Evans was set to become a free agent after signing a one-year deal with Indiana in the past year. He struggled for much of the season in 2018-19. OJ Mayo and Chris 'Birdman' Andersen are the only other players in the past decade to receive this ban.
- The Sixers elected to stay put with Brett Brown as their head coach in the wake of a tough Game 7 loss against Toronto last weekend. Given the fact that he really wasn't given a usable bench to work with this postseason, it's good he wasn't used as a scapegoat for the disappointing playoff exit.
- I'm very excited to see the kind of offense John Beilein runs with the Cavs after he was hired away from the University of Michigan this past week. Dating back to his time at West Virginia, Beilein has been ahead of the curve in college with uptempo offenses that use plenty of ball movement. I'd expect a healthy Kevin Love to have a great bounce-back year in his system. The Cavs won't be very good but they will be fun to watch next year.
- The Wizards have reportedly offered their president of basketball operations gig to Nuggets president Tim Connelly. Would imagine he'd have to get a sizable raise from his current job to take what should be a massive rebuilding job in the wake of John Wall being sidelined for next season.