With Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Final set for later tonight, here is a look at eight matchups that could decide this best-of-seven series between the Bruins and Hurricanes, along with other predictions and preview content:
1. Bergeron Line vs. Aho/Staal Line
Until the puck is dropped on Thursday night, we likely won’t have a clear picture as to which trio will likely be matched up against Boston’s top line of Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak.
But let’s make a bold proclamation here — methinks No. 37’s primary assignment is going to be stopping one of Carolina’s top-six crews, whether that be Sebastian Aho’s line up top or the second group anchored by Jordan Staal.
Either trio would be hefty task for even the most stout two-way forwards to defend.
Carolina’s second line of Staal, Nino Niederreiter and Teuvo Teravainen have gone full scorched earth against the opposition – generating a 62.77 Corsi For Percentage, outscoring opponents by a 4-0 margin and holding a 16-8 edge in high-danger chances in just 46:04 of 5v5 TOI during the playoffs.
Those are bonkers numbers, made even more impressive by the fact that the line is only taking 35.29 percent of their faceoffs in the offensive zone. So, a shutdown line that’s also generating a Goals For Per 60 Minutes rate of 5.21 — wooof.
Aho and captain Justin Williams have had a bit of rotating door on their left for most of the postseason — but the pair have still been productive, generating a 62.11 CF% in 89:19 of 5v5 TOI together, although they have actually been outscored, 4-3, by the opposition during that stretch.
Still, Boston will have to keep tabs on Aho, who tallied a team-high 83 points for Carolina through 82 games and has had the B’s number in his short career — with the 21-year-old forward scoring eight goals and 12 total points in nine matchups against Boston.
(Breaking News: The Carolina Hurricanes are realllllllly good at keeping the puck in the O-zone and generating scoring chances. No surprises here — lines featuring both Niederreiter and Teravainen make up two of the three forward lines with the highest expected goals per 60 min. rate).
But if there was a group to shut down one of Rod Brind’Amour’s top-six trios, it’d have to be Bruce Cassidy’s go-to option up front — with Bergeron and his four Selke Trophies dictating the terms.
And even if they’re bottled up a bit offensively, Bergeron’s line has still excelled when it comes to stymieing the opposition down the other end of the ice. Together, Bergeron and Marchand have logged 164:31 of 5v5 TOI this postseason — relinquishing just three goals during that stretch.
Bergeron, in particular, has been downright absurd when it comes to locking down an opposing team’s top scorer.
The tweet below speaks for itself. That’s four total goals — for a crew of elite forwards that tallied a combined 226 goals and 519 total points during the regular season.
Lunacy. Complete and utter lunacy.
If the Hurricanes want to punch their ticket to the Cup Final, they’re going to need their top six to set the tone — and that involves landing punches when No. 37 is out there. Easier said than done.
2. Bruins' power play vs. Carolina’s active penalty killers
The Bruins didn’t exactly make things easy for themselves last round when it came to the power play — with a
surrendering shorthanded chances ad nauseam throughout the Blue Jackets series.
Over the six-game matchup against Columbus, the Bruins spent 32:09 of ice time on the power play — scoring three goals en route to a largely
meh
15.8 percent success rate (3-for-19).
But if the Blue Jackets’ PK gave the Bruins trouble thanks to their aggressive style of defending, Carolina won’t provide much of a respite.
Whether it be defensemen like
Brett Pesce
(2:30 SH TOI / game) and
Jaccob Slavin
(2:24 SH TOI) or stingy, two-way forwards like
Brock McGinn,
Staal and Aho — the Canes thrive on taking away space on the power play and forcing players to make plays under duress.
The Bruins witnessed that firsthand during their last trip to PNC Arena on Dec. 23, as the Canes tallied a pair of shorthanded goals in an eventual 5-3 win. As shown below, Teravainen is relentless on the puck even when the puck is lofted out of Carolina’s zone, leading to a chance for Aho waiting in the slot.
The Hurricanes usually operate a forward out high during the PK, giving them a potential home-run play if they have a clear lane in front of them.
(Aho splits time between hovering around
John Carlson
up high and supporting the Carolina’s PK efforts over the high slot. Sure enough, Aho received a feed from Pesce seconds later and buried a shorthanded chance against
Braden Holtby
to put Carolina on the board in Game 7.)
Cassidy and the Bruins managed to shore up their shorthanded bids in Games 5 and 6 against Columbus, but all it takes is one skittering puck for a club like Carolina to pounce.
The Bruins still lead all NHL teams this postseason with a 28.6 percent success rate, while the Canes rank 13th overall among the 16 playoff clubs with a 75.0 percent PK success rate. Boston needs to cash in — because the Hurricanes have been a force during 5v5 play with a 56.47 CF% so far this postseason.
3. Tuukka Rask vs. Carolina’s Puck Luck
Throughout the 2018-19 regular season, the Hurricanes have been one of the darlings of the hockey analytics world — due in large part to their prowess when it comes to puck possession.
So even if Carolina spends a large chunk of time peppering the opposing goalie, how then did the Canes only rank 16th in the NHL in goals per game at 2.69?
Some good ‘ole fashioned puck luck — or lack thereof.
With a shooting percentage of 7.3 percent (fourth lowest in the NHL), the Hurricanes often failed to cash in on their multiple chances, leading all teams in expected goal differential per 60 minutes.
Tuukka Rask.
Frederik Andersen
4. Carolina's netminders vs. their own puck luck
Petr Mrazek
Curtis McElhinney —
(Sergei) Bobrovsky
zero
5. Bruins PK against active blueliners on Carolina's power play
Justin Faulk
Dougie Hamilton
Seth Jones
Zdeno Chara
Brandon Carlo.
6. Jaccob Slavin vs. Bergeron Line
While both Bergeron and Marchand
were only out on the ice together for a 5v5 goal in one of Boston’s first 10 playoff matchups this spring, they’ve managed to buck the trend in two of the B’s last three games — while the 63-37-88 trio as a whole has tallied six goals and 11 total points during that stretch.
7. Boston’s breakout vs. Carolina’s forecheck
One of the main reasons why the Hurricanes are so dominant when it comes to puck-possession statistics?
With players like
Warren Foegele
able to throw their weight around but also possessing the wheels to take away time and space in a hurry, the Canes can be devastating with a 2-1-2 forechecking structure — in which two forwards are deployed down below the faceoff circles in pursuit of the puck carrier, while another forward remains hovering around the slot, ready to receive a pass or seal off a breakout attempt.
Luckily for the Bruins, they have a couple of options to combat the speed and layers that Carolina likes to deploy in the O-zone, starting with
Matt Grzelcyk.
Samuel Girard
Andy Welinski
Erik Karlsson
Ryan McDonagh
Charlie McAvoy
8. Sean Kuraly and Boston's forecheckers vs. Carolina's D corps
Sean Kuraly
Calvin de Hann
X-Factor:
Brandon Carlo
“
I think he doesn’t get enough credit for what he did in that (Columbus) series," Cassidy said of Krug on Wednesday. "There’s a lot of stuff, you watch after, he’s battling (Josh) Anderson — not letting him get to the net. (Nick) Foligno. Boone Jenner. There’s some big boys out there. But he’s really pushing them out of the way to allow Tuukka to see a puck, clear a puck.
"I think he did a really good job with that. … Again, this goes back to Torey and the discussions as he’s getting older — what do you want to be known as? Do you want to be known as a power-play quarterback? Offensive player? Yeah that can certainly be your go-to, but you want to be known as an all-around player."
Top question marks:
David Krejci
Jake DeBrusk
The schedule:
Prediction:
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