Five initial thoughts on the Bucks-Celtics showdown

The Bucks' win over the Pistons on Monday night clinched a second-round showdown with the Celtics (schedule TBA). We'll be diving into the Bucks extensively this week to prepare for one of the most anticipated series of the postseason, but let's start looking at some important thoughts about where the Celtics stand and how they will match up with the NBA's top regular-season teams in the Eastern Conference Semifinals 

1. Al Horford remains as pivotal as ever: It wasn't a banner series for the 32-year-old on the offensive end of the floor against the Pacers. He shot a team-low 34 percent after putting up a 4-of-19 line in Game 4 and his 3-point shooting (31 percent) wasn't as reliable as it had been in postseasons past. Still, the most important stat in Horford's mind has always been the win column and that's exactly where he thrived in this series. Despite his poor shooting numbers, the Celtics as a team were a ridiculous 28 points per 100 possessions better on offense when he was on the court. The impact of his gravity as a center or power forward in pulling defenders out of the paint is the main influencer of that divide and it continues to make him the most important Celtic for this postseason run moving forward. Horford also surprised everyone against Indiana with his dominance on the glass (11 per game), turning himself into a factor on the offensive glass against the weak rebounding of Myles Turner and Domantas Sabonis.

The task will be much tougher on that front next round against Giannis Antetokounmpo, but the Bucks rebounding bigs are vulnerable once you get past the Greek Freak on the depth chart. Brook Lopez and Ersan Ilyasova are weak defensive rebounders for their size so it would not surprise me one bit to see Horford target the offensive glass for some easy points again versus the Bucks, something he did with surprising success in Round 1.

2. The opening night starting five is back, but it won't always be the crunch time closing five: We covered on Friday how little Stevens had used this group during the regular season before their re-emergence in Games 2 and 3 against the Pacers. The coach gave them one more shot in the first half of Game 4, but after watching some leaky defense to close out the second quarter by that group, Stevens decided to stick with Marcus Morris over Jaylen Brown in crunch time in Game 4. The decision paid dividends immediately as Morris drilled a pair of corner 3s to help the C's clinch a 110-106 win.

Through four postseason games, the numbers were actually better (+30 net rating) for the Irving/Hayward/Tatum/Morris/Horford unit over the original starting five (+14.8 net rating) in very limited sample sizes. Against the Bucks, both will be needed in some form and it's going to come down to Stevens to decide what hot hand he wants to ride on a particular night (Morris or Brown). Morris is the better pure shooter and rebounder but Brown's athleticism and versatility could be just as important against Milwaukee. The guess here is that Brown gets the nod more often against Milwaukee when it counts but Stevens is approaching this platoon the right way so far.

3. The Aron Baynes/Al Horford frontline might be put on hold: Stevens will have a full week to figure out how he wants to match up against the Bucks' top-5 offense and defense but the guess here is that he stays away from the Horford/Baynes frontline. Stevens pulled the plug on it after Game 4 in last year's first-round showdown and with Antetokounmpo playing at an MVP level, it's going to be a tall task to ask Baynes to match up with him for several minutes at the start of each half. With Lopez firing up over six 3s per game, there are no non-shooters Baynes can cover in the Bucks starting five except for Antetokounmpo. Baynes will play each half and likely spend some time on Antetokounmpo off the bench but the better bet here is that a more versatile defender gets the call for offensive performances. Celtics lineups against the Pacers scored just 89.3 points per 100 possessions with Baynes on the floor thanks to a slew of turnovers and moving picks from the big man. The Celtics will need to do far better to match up with Milwaukee's offensive firepower, so that likely means a reduced role for Baynes. Look for Semi Ojeleye, Marcus Morris or Gordon Hayward to slide into that starting power forward spot in his place.

4. The Celtics are going to need to clean up their turnovers to get out of the next round: Perhaps the biggest weakness the Celtics showed off in Round 1 was an inability to take care of the ball. Boston turned the ball over on 20 percent of their possessions, a seven percent jump from their regular season average and easily the worst mark out of any team this postseason. Indiana was one of the best regular season teams in forcing turnovers, which put the C's out of their comfort zone for most of the series when it comes to ballhandling (countless offensive fouls added up as well).

The good news on this front? While Milwaukee may have the best defense in the NBA, they were one of the worst in forcing turnovers. Instead, they rely on elite rebounding, rim protection and not fouling to keep points off the board. Eric Bledsoe is a strong defender (at least he was during this season) but there isn't much in the way of perimeter stoppers with the Bucks. That should take some pressure off the likes of Brown, Tatum and Hayward, all of whom had turnover issues against Indiana. If the Celtics can clean things up in this department, they should be able to put pressure on Milwaukee's perimeter defense with their shooting at all five positions.

5. Boston's improved rebounding by the wings will open up lineup possibilities against the Bucks: The Celtics were a subpar defensive rebounding team in the regular season but that changed in a hurry this postseason. Indiana isn't a great team on the offensive glass but their length gave Boston problems through regular season matchups. However, a true team effort on the boards turned the Celtics into the best rebounding team in the postseason during Round 1. Second chance points were hard to come by all series long as Horford averaged 11 boards per game but the bigger story was the steady rebounding contributions of guards and wings like Jaylen Brown, Terry Rozier and even Irving. Everyone was committed to being physical with their boxouts and gang rebounding, especially when the Celtics went small with Horford at center.

That mindset is going to be more important against the Bucks as the C's are likely to trend towards smaller lineups to help combat the Bucks perimeter shooting. Antetokounmpo and Ilyasova are pesky offensive rebounders so the C's will need to stay attached to their bodies to ensure they don't get beat up on the glass while rotating defenders on the perimeter. However, an ability to hold their own on the glass with Hayward or Tatum manning the power forward spot will open the door for the Celtics to play their best offensive lineups more often, something that will be pivotal for them to keep pace with the Bucks' firepower.