A closer look at five meaningful stats from the Celtics’ start to the postseason and how they could impact a likely upcoming series with the Bucks in Round 2.
84.5: Celtics defensive rating when Terry Rozier is on the floor: Marcus Smart’s oblique tear in the second-to-last game of the regular season changed the equation for Rozier this postseason. Instead of being on the fringes of the rotation with a short leash, Brad Stevens has been forced to play him steady bench minutes to help combat a Pacers team with plenty of ballhandling guards. While Rozier’s offensive struggles have continued through the first three games of the series (27.8 percent shooting), the fourth-year guard has made up for it with his defensive presence. He’s been effective with his ball pressure all series, bugging the likes of Darren Collison and Cory Joseph in the pick-and-roll, preventing both from getting any kind of consistent rhythm this postseason. Rozier’s defensive imprint has been very visible with Boston’s elite defensive rating with him on the court, the fifth-best number in the NBA this postseason among players averaging 15 or more minutes per game.
While Rozier’s offensive usage (third on the team) remains too high for his subpar shooting, his defensive contributions have outweighed those struggles so far. He’s rebounding like a mad man, fighting through screens and helping to ensure the Pacers haven’t been able to break down Boston’s offense in the paint consistently. If he keeps up this type of defense, it should give the Celtics a fighting chance against the Bucks, even if Smart isn’t healthy enough to suit up.
3.43: Kyrie Irving’s assist to turnover ratio: The All-Star has been stellar so far during his first postseason in Boston, shooting a scorching hot 50 percent from 3-point range while chipping in far more on the glass than any other postseason in his career to help lead Boston to a 3-0 series lead entering Sunday.
However, the most impressive work by Irving so far this postseason might be with his distribution and ballhandling skills. He’s piled up 24 assists and just seven turnovers through three games, giving him an assist-to-turnover ratio that’s easily the best of his career in the postseason. Given how much trouble Indiana has given the Celtics with their ball pressure all series, Irving has remained composed in the face of double teams, finding the open man with ease all series long. He’s assisted on 44.7 percent of his teammates’ shots when he’s been on the floor, a number that would have easily led the NBA in the regular season. That type of balance between his high usage scoring and distribution has helped the Celtics maneuver their way through three subpar offensive games thanks to Irving’s heroics. He’s getting the ball to the right players at the right times and that’s leading to winning basketball for Boston this postseason.
9.9 rebounds per 36 minutes for Al Horford: The 32-year-old may be in his 12th NBA season but he’s done the best rebounding work of his postseason career thus far against Indiana. The Pacers have plenty of length to give Boston trouble in Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner, but Horford has had his way against those guys by nearly averaging a double-double every game. He’s grabbing a defensive rebound on nearly 25 percent of all available misses (seven percentage points above his season average) and has also been a pest for Boston on the offensive glass, creating second-chance opportunities for the offense while it’s been struggling. The presence of Aron Baynes at center has certainly breathed some life into Horford on the glass but he’s spent about half of this series at the five, outworking Turner and Sabonis in the middle for good rebounding position. He may not be as athletic as his Atlanta days but his positioning has been great all series long. Boston has been the best rebounding team in the NBA this postseason and Horford is the main reason why. A far tougher task awaits next round against Milwaukee but Brad Stevens couldn’t have asked for a better start in this department.
15.7 field goal attempts per game for Jayson Tatum: The high volume of attempts for the 21-year-old isn’t just a positive due to his superb shooting (53 percent from the field, 58 percent from 3-point range). Instead, the fact that Tatum is taking two more attempts per game than his season average is a sign a hierarchy is forming within the Celtics offense at the proper time. Irving (20.7 attempts per game) and Tatum are the only two players on the roster that are averaging in double-digits for shot attempts this postseason. That stands in contrast to five players averaging double-digit attempts (Irving, Tatum, Horford, Morris, Brown) in the regular season. Tatum’s shot-making ability on the postseason stage has been evident since last year’s run to the Eastern Conference Finals and it was evident in some of those losses that he was underutilized. Now, he’s turning into more of a go-to option, especially when Irving is not on the floor. His shot selection remains questionable at times but he has shown that he is a capable ‘bad’ shot maker throughout his career. When defenses clamp down, the options aren’t always appealing in the postseason but Tatum is an appealing No. 2 option on this roster.
3.7 free throw attempts per game for Marcus Morris: The veteran forward is averaging just 24 minutes per game during the postseason, yet he is leading the Celtics roster through three wins on trips to the charity stripe. Boston’s production at the free throw line continues to be underwhelming as a team (the Pacers don’t foul much), so getting a surprise contribution from any place on the roster can help win games at times, especially on poor shooting nights. Morris has been up-and-down during three games but he has managed to attack Pacer bigs with penetration when they try to close out on him. These type of smart decisions are going to be critical heading into round two as Milwaukee has a ton of rim protectors at their disposal to keep teams from getting easy baskets in the paint. Morris isn’t great at drawing contact, but he’s picking his spot well.
Other NBA News and Notes
- Very big lost opportunity for the Nets on Saturday afternoon, dropping their third straight game to the Sixers after stealing Game 1 in Philadelphia. With Joel Embiid hobbled, I really felt like this was a nightmare matchup for the Sixers given how much firepower the Nets had in their backcourt but D’Angelo Russell has been brutal all series long, shooting just 39 percent from the field while taking over 21 shots per game. That type of volume is only worthy for guards like Irving or Steph Curry. The Nets would have been far better off with him sharing the rock more, instead, they are likely letting him squander away their chance at an upset.
- I can’t tell whether it’s a good or bad thing for the Celtics that the Bucks aren’t being tested at all by the Pistons in Round 1. On the one hand, playing in limited high leverage situations against inferior talent will perhaps come back to bite Milwaukee when said situations arise against the Celtics. On the other hand, one league executive pointed out that the Bucks really haven’t had to show anything noteworthy on tape in this series, allowing them to hold all of their tricks up their sleeve for Boston. There should be plenty of time for both teams to prepare for each other with a week off (assuming both teams finish in five) but the chess match between Budenholtzer and Stevens will be fascinating to watch.
- Really fun series out west between the Nuggets and Spurs. Did not expect Denver with their youth to respond with a win in San Antonio given their horrific track record there but Mike Malone made the necessary adjustments (going defense over offense at the wing with Torrey Craig) to tie things up at 2-2. Look for this one to go seven.
- I don’t expect the Warriors to lose more than one game in each series before the NBA Finals after their wakeup call against the Clippers on Monday night.