Breaking down the Celtics offense vs. Pacers defense, plus a series prediction

Ever since Victor Oladipo went down with a season-ending leg injury on January 23rd, no playoff team in the NBA has a worse record (17-19) than the Pacers. It’s with this backdrop that the Celtics walked into the ideal matchup for themselves in the first round of the postseason — despite the injury to Marcus Smart. The Pacers are a group of scrappy overachievers with grit and that's apparent on the defensive end of the floor where they were a top-3 team this regular season and still a top-1o group without Oladipo.

With that mind, let’s take a closer look at what exactly the Pacers do well on defense, where they will try to attack Boston and what the x-factors will be in the first round matchup when the Celtics have the ball before diving into a series prediction:

The Basics (Post Oladipo Injury — 39 games)
Pace: 99.89 (27th in NBA)
OffRtg: 107.0 (21st)
DefRtg: 106.8 (10th)
NetRtg: +0.2 (15th)

STRENGTHS

Forcing turnovers: The surprise top-3 defense in the NBA does a lot of damage thanks to its pressure schemes in the pick-and-roll defense. It has allowed them to rank in the top-5 of turnovers forced in the NBA on the year, a number that has still persisted at a high mark despite the absence of backcourt stopper Victor Oladipo. Indiana has plenty of long bigs in Myles Turner, Thaddeus Young and Domantas Sabonis that make it tough for smaller guards to pass over and they run a disciplined scheme under Nate McMillan. Luckily for Boston, they are one of the better teams in the league when it comes to ballhandling, but Irving, Hayward and Rozier will be put to the test here. Guys with weaker handles like Tatum and Brown will need to be vigilant to ensure they don’t sacrifice possessions as well.

Not fouling: The Celtics have been allergic to the free throw line for much of the season and the Pacers won’t give them consistent help in turning the tide on that front this postseason. Indiana ranks fourth in the league among free throws allowed, thanks to a collection of savvy mobile bigs and smart gameplanning by MacMillan. They don’t pile up fouls early in quarters and their lineup is pretty versatile on the whole with good length among the starting wings with Matthews and Bogdanovic. There will be plenty of mismatches here for the Celtics to target from a speed standpoint (Bogdanovic) but Indiana will put up a good fight in all of those and won’t give fouls easily. The Celtics will need to be smart with their aggression in order to counteract this and create easy scoring chances at the free throw line.

Myles Turner: The Pacers starting center led the NBA in blocks per game (2.7), making him one of the best rim protectors in the NBA in his fourth NBA season. The Celtics will try to mix in some Al Horford at the five in order to drag Turner out of the paint but when Aron Baynes is in the game, he’s going to have to try to punish Turner for his propensity to help in the paint. Knocking down an early 3 could help open things up for the Celtics drivers because otherwise they are going to have to deal with the impressive length and recovery ability of Turner all night. He doesn’t get a lot of acclaim in this department leaguewide but he should be a lock for an All-Defensive team this year.

WEAKNESSES

Defensive rebounding: It’s strange that this would be considered a weakness for a team that plays traditionally big upfront, but their rebounding really drops off in a hurry beyond their top two centers in Turner and Sabonis. Thaddeus Young is grabbing just 14 percent of all defensive rebounds, a number that looks more like a small forward than a power forward. TJ Leaf is subpar for his position as well and no one in the backcourt rebounds at an above-average rate. This setup should make it tempting for the Celtics to go with two bigs a lot up front to try to take advantage of these weak spots on defensive glass. If the Celtics can pull Sabonis or Turner out of the paint, they should be able to get good position down low for putbacks.

Bench wings defense: While Indiana’s starting wings are nothing to write home about, their reserves provide plenty of ways for Boston’s offense to attack them. Cory Joseph is rock solid at backup point guard but Tyreke Evans and Doug McDermott are both minus defenders. Evans lacks discipline and can be picked off on the ball or while chasing his man around screens. Meanwhile, McDermott lacks the athleticism and strength to handle potent scorers and the Celtics will surely go after him plenty in the next few weeks with Tatum and Brown. The Celtics won’t focus all their game planning around targeting these two guys, but look for them to maximize plays in their direction whenever either is in the game.

No one to contain Kyrie: This is a problem for pretty much every time in the NBA but it looms large with an undersized point guard (Darren Collison) scheduled to handle the bulk of Irving’s minutes. Irving has feasted against the Pacers all year long (50 percent shooting, 45 percent from 3) as the Pacers have struggled to stop the two-man pick-and-roll game between him and Horford. Trapping is a potential option in this series but that will leave the Pacers vulnerable to open shots from the perimeter thanks to Irving’s improved passing ability. There is going to be no easy answer for the Pacers staff to corral Irving, particularly since their best backcourt defender (Joseph) is in the midst of a horrific shooting slump, limiting his effectiveness on offense.

Final Thoughts and the Pick

The first day of the NBA playoffs that was ripe with upsets (three of four road teams won) should be a nice warning signal to Boston ahead of the first round matchup. The Pacers will play hard and execute a gameplan well, as evidenced by them taking the Cavs to seven games in the first round last year.

I’m tempted to give them more of a chance in this series thanks to the absence of Marcus Smart but I just think the C’s have enough talent on the wing in this series to make up for that. The Pacers don’t have a lot of dangerous wings beyond Bogdanovic and the Celtics will be able to gameplan for him in this matchup. If Stevens remains committed to a big frontline to held their defense stand strong, the Pacers should not be able to contain Irving and his running mates. There are just too many individual matchups that come out in Boston’s favor in this one.

The Pick: Celtics in 5.