Good questions this week -- topics include the 2019 draft, Patriots' cap casualties, 2020 cap space, Jakob Johnson...and more. Let's get started.
Email Question from BSJ subscriber Glenn Trost: Hi Miguel,
Do you see any June 1 cuts this year (which would push half the dead money into 2020)?
Thanks,
Glenn
Answer: No. With $18.5 million in cap space, the Patriots do not need to wait until June 2 to release the player. It is far more likely New England releases a player before June 2, a move that will help keep the 2020 salary cap clean.
Answer: I'll include UDFAs in my answer.
- QB: Tom Brady's successor needs to be found. The problem is a 2019 draft pick will end his rookie deal in 2022, the same year Brady will stop playing, provided he intends to play three more years past 2019.
- OT: The swing tackle spot needs to be filled in 2019. It would also be ideal to also find a replacement for Marcus Cannon.
- TE: Stephen Anderson is the only tight end on the Super Bowl LIII 53-man roster currently on the Patriots.
- WR: In a passing league, you can't have enough options for Brady.
- LG: If the Patriots do not feel they will be able to extend Joe Thuney before the start of the 2020 league year, it would be best to draft his replacement now.
- DT: Need to replace both Danny Shelton and Malcom Brown.
- ST: Matthew Slater, Nate Ebner, and Brandon King are all in the last year of their deals. Are the replacements currently on their roster? Or is there a UDFA standout in training camp who could take one of their roster spots?
- P: Ryan Allen's one-year deal with only $100,000 in guaranteed money means he could be cut if they find a cheaper replacement.
- S: The cap numbers and ages of the safety trio (Devin McCourty, Patrick Chung, and Duron Harmon) dictate finding a replacement or two sooner than later.
Answer: My guess is no. Gronkowski's retirement by itself created more space than needed to operate for the rest of the 2019 league year.
Answer: As the draft gets closer, I get more confident the Patriots will trade up from No. 32 as it appears Seattle (at 21) and Oakland (at either 24 or 27) are looking to trade down -- two teams that have dealt with New England frequently in the past.
Answer: I would describe the NFL cap as a soft cap that teams are not allowed to go over once the league year starts.
Answer: That they have more than enough cap space to extend several players like Julian Edelman, Adam Butler, Joe Thuney
Answer: Comparing the Patriots to the below league-wide numbers shows New England with an above-average number of players with offseason workout bonuses and a slightly above-average team total. The Patriots have a below-average per player average. The numbers for the Bengals, Packers, Bills and the Panthers stand out. I was surprised several teams do not have any players with offseason workout bonuses. (I like to thank Nick Korte of Over the Cap for providing the players by teams numbers via a database query.)
Answer: In descending order of my confidence level the player's deal will be reworked sometime before the end of the 2019 regular season.
- Tom Brady
- Kyle Van Noy
- Julian Edelman
- Teddy Karras
- Joe Thuney
- Adam Butler
- Stephen Anderson
- Jacob Hollister
- Philip Dorsett
Answer: No official word. Unless the Falcons website says something before then, we won't know for sure if the Patriots will be receiving Atlanta's seventh-round pick in the 2020 draft until the first official listing of the 2020 draft order happens in March, 2020.
Answer: After plugging the projected cap hits for the Patriots' current 12 picks into my Excel workbook, I determine New England will lose $2,233,854 in cap space after signing their draft class. I would use $1.75 million to $2.75 million as the range.
Answer: If he makes the 53-man roster, Jakob Johnson's 2019 salary will be $495,000. If he is placed on IR or on PUP, his salary will decrease to $378,000. Because Johnson is part of the NFL International Player Pathway program, he will not count against the 90-man roster limit. At the end of 2019 training camp, Johnson will be eligible for an international player practice squad exemption. The 2019 minimum weekly salary for a practice squad player is $8,000, so if Johnson is added to the Patriots' practice squad, his cap number would be $136,000 (seventeen weeks times $8,000).
Answer: It could be true. It also could not be true. It's far too soon to give an exact number for 2020 salary cap space. At this time, it's best to use a range or to use conditional words like "could" or "may have." I'm far more comfortable projecting Patriots will be in good to great cap shape for the 2020 season instead of predicting an exact number. Why the need for conditions? None of the four numbers needed to calculate the team's 2020 salary cap space number are not known at this time.
A team's 2020 salary cap space number is:
• 2020 league cap
• 2019 carryover
• Adjustments (the majority of which deals with incentives)
• Minus cap commitments
Answer: To keep this exercise simple, I'll pretend the Patriots' bye week is Week 4. If Gronk decides to unretire during the regular season, his cap number would be $9 million divided by 17 times the number of weeks remaining in the season plus $46,875 times the remaining number of games. On Sunday ESPN's Mike Reiss reported the deadline for him to unretire is Week 13.
Question: What is your current Patriots 2019 salary cap space number?