The Celtics won’t get a taste of the NBA postseason for two more weeks, but they couldn’t ask for a better tuneup for the playoffs over the final seven games of the regular season. Brad Stevens has already put his roster on notice by going into starting lineup by committee mode after a four-game losing streak and he’s also primed to have a fully healthy roster for the first time in weeks with Kyrie Irving and Robert Williams set to return to the lineup on Friday night in a crucial matchup with the Pacers.
Currently, the Celtics remain just one game behind the Pacers in the race for the No. 4 seed, one of the only playoff teams in either conference that have struggled as much as Boston since the All-Star Break. The question now is whether the Celtics can prevent themselves from having to start the postseason on the road against one of the best home teams in the league (Pacers are 28-9 at Bankers Life Fieldhouse).
Friday’s game against the Pacers at the Garden isn’t a must-win on paper to secure the No. 4 seed, but it’s about as close as the Celtics will get on that front. Falling two games behind the Pacers with six games to play amid the C’s remaining schedule (four road games, planned rest days for Kyrie and Horford) will leave Boston with essentially no room for error while playing a host of teams fighting for their playoff lives. Winning on Friday night puts the Celtics in control of their own destiny, tying them up in the standings with Indy while guaranteeing themselves the head-to-head tiebreaker advantage at the end of the season.
So what are the odds the Celtics can finish the job over the final two weeks of the regular season if they take care of business tonight? Let’s take a closer look at the closing schedules and tiebreakers to figure out what we can reasonably expect from both squads over the next two weeks.
Tiebreakers:
- Season series tied 1-1 (two games remaining)
- Conference record tied at 30-15. Celtics will win tiebreaker if season series is at 2-2 since they are one game behind Pacers right now in standings. They are guaranteed to finish with a better conference record if the two teams are tied after 82 games.
Pacers: (45-30)
Games remaining: 7 (Home: 4 Away: 3)
Games vs. teams ‘fighting’ for playoff spots or positioning: 6
Games against ‘tanking’ opponents: 1
Opponents’ winning percentage: .505 (12th-toughest in NBA)
Remaining Schedule:
Analysis:
A brutal west coast trip (0-4) prevented them from putting some distance between them and Boston amid the Green’s recent struggles.
They are just 13-15 since Victor Oladipo went down for the season with a knee injury, yet the worst of their schedule is over. They will be playing primarily hungry teams fighting for their playoff lives but Orlando, Detroit and Brooklyn are still all .500 teams by and large. A trip to Atlanta in the regular season finale won’t be easy but if they manage to pull off a split against Boston. A 4-3 split is a very reasonable expectation. Anything worse than that would eliminate realistic expectations of snagging the No. 4 seed
Celtics: (44-31)
Games remaining: 7 (Home: 3 Away: 4)
Games vs. teams ‘fighting’ for playoff spots or positioning: 6
Games against ‘tanking’ opponents: 1
Opponents’ winning percentage: .511 (9th-toughest in NBA)
Remaining schedule:
Analysis:
A far tougher slate than the Pacers when it comes to travel and road games. A rested Nets team fighting for their playoff lives will be waiting for Boston on the second half of a back-to-back on Saturday night and the Heat have given the Celtics fits in Miami for much of the past two seasons. Given Boston’s poor road record (18-19), expecting anything better than a 5-2 record would be wishful thinking, particularly if Al Horford and Kyrie Irving plan to get another day or two off. The one plus? The Wizards should be tanking on the final night of the regular season, making that one less of a challenge. A split with the Pacers doesn’t guarantee anything though, so the Celtics are really going to have to focus in on a nightly basis over the final seven games since consistent basketball is going to be required to beat teams fighting for their playoff lives (Brooklyn, Miami x 2, Orlando).
Final Thoughts
For all of the ugliness that has made up this season, the Celtics honestly couldn’t ask for a better first round setup if they end up securing the No. 4 seed. No playoff team in the East has had a worse record than the Pacers over the past two months and they also have less talent on paper than the likes of the Pistons, Heat and company after Oladipo went down.
The Bucks have always been the preferred opponent for the Celtics in the second round compared to the Raptors as well, given that Boston simply has better matchups with them in all sections of the floor, including a specialist in Semi Ojeleye to help slow down Giannis Antetokounmpo.
The ugly regular season could quickly turn into a meaningless afterthought if the Celtics finish strong here and set themselves up for a short and successful series against the undermanned Pacers. Yet, the time for talking about putting things together must come to an end starting on Friday night. The Celtics have a next-to-no margin for error when it comes to securing homecourt advantage and that’s a hole they have put themselves in with such an underwhelming first 75 games of the regular season.
The team’s inability to move past tough games and sequences have haunted them all year and these final two weeks are one final chance to do that and seize a best case scenario. They were going to have to go through the Bucks or Raptors in the second round this season no matter how things played out over the course of 82 games. That path still remains in place. This team should have humbled over the past couple of months and what we see over the next two weeks should be a big indicator of how much fight we can expect from this group in the postseason. They’ve lost the benefit of the doubt from most Celtics fans at this point, so any chance of them earning that back begins Friday night at the Garden.
