Projecting whether the Celtics receive the Grizzlies pick in 2019

With 10 games remaining in the regular season, the Celtics already essentially know their first-round opponent (over 95 percent chance it is Indiana). Still, that doesn't mean there won't be plenty of drama down the stretch of the regular season when it comes to the future of this franchise. The surging Grizzlies (winners of six of their last 10 games) keep making gains in the lottery standings, pushing them closer towards the fateful No. 9 slot in the lottery, at which point Boston would receive the first round pick this year, instead of having it roll over.

The Memphis pick is one selection the Celtics would prefer to land later than 2019, according to team sources, due to the potential higher upside down the line. Here’s a reminder at the protections on that pick.

2019: Top-8 protected
2020: Top-6 protected
2021: No protection

Needless to say, a case can be made that the Celtics (or whatever team acquires this selection from them this offseason) would love this pick to arrive in 2021 given the lack of young building block-type players on the Grizzlies roster under contract for the future. Memphis has the potential to be a bottom-5 team for a couple of years going forward with limited young prospects and no major cap room.

Here's a look at the current lottery standings with five teams with plenty of tanking motivation squeezed between the 6-10 seeds.



So where exactly can we expect Memphis to land in this race? And how will that impact the odds of the C's landing a fourth first round pick for 2019? Let's breakdown the schedules and motivation (tanking incentive) of the teams remaining in this race to figure out what lies ahead.

6. Mavericks (28-44)
Games remaining: 10 (Home: 5 Away: 5)
Games vs. teams “fighting” for playoff spots or positioning: 5
Games against .500+ teams: 5
Remaining key tank games: vs. MEM, @ MEM, @ PHX
Injuries of note: Tim Hardaway Jr. ruled out for season
Analysis: It’s been quite the tank job by Rick Carlisle and company, winning just three of 19 games since the All-Star Break to plummet down to the NBA’s sixth-worst record after hanging around the West playoff picture in the first half of the year. Dallas does have a lot of incentive to tank here since they can keep their pick if they manage to stay in the top-4 of this draft (37.2 percent chance). Barring a late surprise surge, they look likely to be locked into No. 6 spot. C’s fans should be rooting hard for them in two head-to-head matchups with Memphis next month, since that could swing the Memphis pick towards in 2020 if the Grizz lose both, flip-flopping the teams in the standings.
Tank Motivation Meter: 9
Projected record: 30-52

7. Memphis (29-42)
Games remaining: 11 (Home: 5 Away: 6)
Games vs. teams “fighting” for playoff spots or positioning: 7
Games against .500+ teams: 6
Remaining key games: vs. MIN, @ PHX, @ DAL, vs. DAL
Injuries of note: Kyle Anderson (shoulder), Avery Bradley (wrist, out for a week at least), Mike Conley (doubtful for weekend)
Analysis: The hottest team in the lottery continues to make the Celtics front office sweat with their surprisingly strong play. Another impressive home victory over a playoff team (Houston) on Wednesday gave them six wins in their last ten games, inching them closer towards conveying the No. 9 pick, which is a goal for the franchise (to get rid of the pick obligation now). The schedule is not easy the rest of the way, but there are several chances to take games against tanking teams that could leave the C’s with four first-round picks in 2019, a less than ideal scenario for Boston. A couple of big swing games loom this weekend against the Magic and Wolves. If Memphis takes both of those, it’s hard to see the C’s getting to wait on this pick one more year without some lottery luck. The Grizzlies are motivated and are playing well so they won’t be taking any nights off down the stretch, unlike their opponents. However, with some injuries starting to crop up in the backcourt (Bradley, Conley) their momentum could be stopped.
Tank Motivation Meter: 0
Projected record: 33-49

8. Washington (30-43)
Games remaining: 9 (Home: 4 Away: 5)
Games vs. teams “fighting” for playoff spots or positioning: 5
Games against .500+ teams: 4
Injuries of note: Trevor Ariza (strained left groin)
Remaining key tank swing games: @ LAL, @ PHX, @ NYK, vs. BOS
Analysis:

The Wizards have kept their foot on the gas towards the postseason run but that hasn’t stopped them from spiraling down the East standings. Three straight losses have effectively sealed their playoff fate, putting them six back of Miami with just eight to play. The smart move from here would be to start tanking the rest of the way but this franchise has never really been savvy on that front. They also have been plenty of winnable games against fellow tanking squads down the stretch, even though they won’t be playing for much themselves. A few wins will keep them out of the bottom eight in all likelihood and I expect them to be in the mix with Memphis to the very end. An interesting final wildcard? The Celtics play them on the last night of the regular season in a game Boston should probably throw if they are locked into a playoff seed. The Grizzlies pick could depend on it.
Tank Motivation Meter: 6
Projected record:33-49

9. New Orleans (31-43)
Games remaining: 8 (Home: 6 Away: 2)
Games vs. teams “fighting” for playoff spots or positioning: 3
Games against .500+ teams: 2
Key injuries: Jrue Holiday (out for another week), E’Twaun Moore (out for another week)
Remaining key swing tank games: vs. ATL, vs. LAL, @ PHX
Analysis: The Pelicans have nosedived in the standings over the past couple of weeks (losing seven of eight) but that largely has been due to the quality of opponents. Alvin Gentry still has this group playing pretty hard, even when they blow games by calling timeouts they don’t have in the closing seconds (vs. Phoenix last weekend). On paper, they are a threat to drop below the Grizzlies in the standings but their schedule is very favorable down the stretch. Only two quality opponents remain with a handful of tankers on the docket. They should squeak out a couple more wins and that will help keep them out of the bottom eight. Still, I would be surprised to see Holiday or Moore suit up for the rest of the year so this should be a tight race if the Grizzlies remain hot.
Tank Motivation Meter: 7
Projected record: 33-49

10. LA Lakers (31-40)
Games remaining: 11 (Home: 7 Away: 4)
Games vs. teams “fighting” for playoff spots or positioning: 8
Games against .500+ teams: 7
Remaining key swing tank games: vs. SAC, vs. WASH, @ NOP
Key injuries: Ingram, Ball out for season. LeBron James remains on a minutes limit
Analysis: Not sure if we should call it tanking or the Lakers should not being a good basketball team but the wheels have fallen off in LA LA land with nine losses in their last 10 games. Full tank mode arrived a couple of weeks ago with a minutes limit for James along with playing the young end of bench talent (Mo Wagner) on a nightly basis. The losses will continue to pile up but with seven games coming at home, would expect LeBron James squeaks out a couple of wins at Staples, where the Lakers are above .500 this year. A matchup with the Pelicans (someone has to win!) should also help them one of these squads from dropping below Memphis. If the Lakers are going to win games though, it’s probably coming in the next two weeks. They close out the regular season against five playoff teams amid a high probability James gets shut down. If they want to land Anthony Davis this summer, the higher the draft pick they can secure now via losing, the better for their negotiation purposes.
Tank Motivation Meter: 9
Projected record: 34-48

Projected final standings

6. Dallas (30-52)
7. Memphis/New Orleans/Washington (33-49).
10. LA Lakers (34-48)

Note: In any tiebreaker situation, a coin flip is held before the lottery to determine who gets the higher pick in the lottery in the event two or more teams are tied and no one moves higher than their original spot in the lottery.

Odds the Celtics receive the Grizzlies pick based on where Memphis finishes in final lottery standings (worst-to-best record)

No. 6: 3.8 percent
No. 7: 14.2 percent
No. 8: 39.2 percent
No. 9: 79.7 percent
No. 10: 86.1 percent

Final Thoughts: Every game is going to count here for Boston. They still will be able to land Davis if they want, even if they do get the Memphis pick now, but the number of assets they will be able to retain will certainly shift if they are forced to use it or trade in 2019. The Celtics performance in the postseason remains the biggest subplot heading into the offseason but the future of this Grizzlies pick remains a close second. It's worth watching closely as the season draws to a close.