What's the best-case scenario for Celtics when it comes to playoff seeding?

LOS ANGELES -- Even after a horrific 1-5 start to the after the All-Star Break, the Celtics suddenly find themselves within striking distance of a likely destination since their 10-10 start: the third seed in the Eastern Conference. The Sixers defeated the Pacers on Sunday afternoon in Philadelphia, pulling the two squads into a tie for the No. 3 spot, with the Celtics lurking just one game behind with 15 games to play.

Boston has three head-to-head games remaining against Indy (twice) and Philly (once), putting them very much in control of their own destiny when it comes to playoff positioning in the East. A quick look at the dynamics remaining for all three squads in what should be a race that goes down to the wire for the 3-5 seeds in the East.

Tiebreakers

BOS-IND (1-1, two games remaining)
BOS over PHI (3-0, one game remaining)
PHI over IND (3-1)

Remaining schedules

Sixers (42-25)
Games remaining: 15 (Home: 6 Away: 9)
Games vs. teams ‘fighting’ for playoff spots or positioning: 9
Games against ‘tanking’ opponents: 6
Opponents’ winning percentage: .458 (27th toughest in NBA)

Pacers: (42-25)
Games remaining: 15 (Home: 7; Away: 8)
Games vs. teams ‘fighting’ for playoff spots or positioning: 13
Games against ‘tanking’ opponents: 2
Opponents’ winning percentage: .544 (6th toughest in NBA)

Celtics (41-26)
Games remaining: 15 (Home: 7; Away: 8)
Games vs. teams ‘fighting’ for playoff spots or positioning: 12
Games against ‘tanking’ opponents: 3
Opponents’ winning percentage: .502 (14th toughest in NBA)

So what exactly should Celtics fans be rooting as the final month of the regular season plays out in order to maximize the team’s chances of advancing deep into the postseason? Let’s examine a few notable factors that will loom large with seeding as the playoffs approach.

1. The Bucks are highly likely to win the No. 1 seed: It’s not set in stone just yet, but the Bucks have a 2.5-game lead over the Raptors with 16 games to play and hold the tiebreaker over Toronto with no head-to-head matchups remaining for the Raptors to pick up ground. Toronto has an incredibly easy schedule to close out the year (28th in SOS) but the Bucks path is extremely favorable as well (22th in SOS). Assuming the Bucks maintain good health down the stretch, it’s going to be very tough for Toronto to catch them if Milwaukee is motivated to lock down the top spot (they should be).

2. The Celtics still match up better with the Bucks than the Raptors: Either team would be a very tough second-round foe but the last couple seasons of matchups show that the Celtics are more consistently able to hang tough with the Bucks, particularly on the road. Toronto has been a house of horrors for Boston during the Brad Stevens era (have not won up there since 2015) and the Raptors athleticism on the wings and their overall defensive versatility has given Boston headaches all year long despite the 2-2 season series matchup. They also made bigger upgrades at the trade deadline with Marc Gasol and Jeremy Lin than the Bucks did with Nikola Mirotic. The Bucks defeated the C’s 2-1 in the head-to-head matchups this year but one of those wins came without three Boston starters active and the other occurred during Boston’s worst shooting night of the year. The Celtics can play with either team when they are at their best, but over the course of a seven-game series without home court advantage, I like their odds of stealing (at least) a win in Milwaukee more than Toronto.

3. The Pacers might be the most ideal first-round matchup for Boston among Philadelphia, Detroit and Brooklyn: The Celtics should not be worrying about their first-round opponent by any means if they have serious aspirations about getting to the NBA Finals. Still, a less daunting first-round series is never a bad thing for a team that will need to preserve plenty of energy to defeat the two best teams (record-wise) in the NBA in the final two rounds of the East playoffs.

Given the Pacers brutal schedule down the stretch and the absence of Victor Oladipo (out for the year) from the lineup, this team arguably has the least amount of pure talent left on its roster among the four teams mentioned. The Pistons are just 35-31 but they have played tremendously in the past 15 games and present tough matchups (Andre Drummond, Blake Griffin) that could give the C’s problems. The Nets should be getting fully healthy as well in the next few weeks and have the kind of quick guards (D'Angelo Russell, Spencer Dinwiddie) that have given Boston headaches all year. The Pacers play hard and are well coached, but there really isn’t a single guy on that roster who is scary in a seven-game series. Boston slotting into the fourth spot to take on the fifth-seeded Pacers in a first-round matchup may very well be the best case scenario for this group, setting themselves up for a showdown with the Bucks in the second round, instead of the Raptors.

From the players’ perspective, they won’t be sweating the seeding too much either way. It’s obviously not going to matter where they stand if they aren’t playing good basketball over the final 15 games of the year.

"It’s the only thing that matters … hitting your stride at the right time,” said Kyrie Irving. "I think we’re all waiting for the stride to be hit for us, especially going on the road, playing against high-level teams, and being successful. We just gotta take care of that and just continue to build the continuity that we need, and the trust. Around this time … we want to get going and just feel good about your team and going into the playoffs.”

There will be some element of control with the seeding from the coaching staff though, in terms of when they elect to rest some veterans. If the Celtics are able to lock in home court advantage in the next few weeks here with a strong run, they can take their foot off the gas late and potentially slide into the ideal seeding position for themselves in the No. 4 spot, assuming the Bucks stick in the top seed. The company line from the team though will be letting the chips fall where they will.

"I think the bottom line is we want to focus on playing as well as we can and competing together as well as we can. Where that stuff sorts itself out, it will,” said Brad Stevens. "There will be times, obviously, in the next 15 games where we will choose to rest Al, choose to do some of that stuff. But that’s no different than we would have planned five months ago regardless of seeding and circumstance. Ultimately, it doesn’t change our approach at all, the standings being what they are.”

However things turn out, the team should probably just take a cue from Marcus Morris about his attitude as postseason approaches.

"Right now I think it’s prime time for us to get our shit together,” said Morris. “Keep playing together, the energy has been really great.”