The Kings pick is finally trending the right way for Celtics

Heading into this season, the top-1 protected first-round pick the Kings owed Boston in 2019 looked like the most valuable draft pick in the NBA that wasn’t owned by a team’s original franchise. Boston’s front office had bet on the Kings’ ineptitude while making the Markelle Fultz/Jayson Tatum trade back in June 2017, declining the opportunity of landing a mid-lottery pick with unique protections in 2018 (from the Lakers via Philly) in order to get a shot at the upside of a largely unprotected Kings pick in 2019.

That looked like a savvy bet this past offseason as the Kings were routinely projected to be one of the five worst teams in the NBA, but the likes of De’Aaron Fox, Buddy Hield and company have defied expectations all year long. Behind a fast-paced offense and timely contributions from role pieces, they have firmly planted themselves in a tough West playoff race for the first 60 games of the year to the surprise of the NBA world.

This development was one of a long list of things that have gone wrong for the Celtics all year when it comes to their team-building assets. Not only have their young players lost trade value in the midst of an uneven 2018-19 campaign, but the Kings pick also looked to be firmly in danger of sliding into the late teens after Sacramento made a couple of meaningful additions (Harrison Barnes, Alec Burks) at the trade deadline to boost their own playoff prospects. As of two weeks ago, the Kings were just one game out of a playoff spot, knocking at the door of the party for the first time in 13 years as a franchise.

“Very confident. I’d bet my house on it,” Hield said on February 20th on the Kings’ prospects of making the postseason, “I make a lot of money to buy the next one.”

The implications of the Kings making the playoffs would have turned a bad situation into a worse one for Boston, simply due to the swing in the draft slot.

All 14 teams that don’t make the playoffs get the top 14 slots in the NBA Draft after the lottery, even if playoff teams have a better record than squads that don’t make the cut in another conference. With three(!) squads at the bottom of the East swirling around the .500 mark, the swing for a lottery vs. playoff team would be significant in the draft order. Making the playoffs would likely slide the Kings into the No. 18 slot, while missing would guarantee them to be no higher than No. 14, with the potential upside (2.4 percent chance) of them moving up into the top-4 with a little lottery luck.

Projected Draft Order