Bruce Cassidy downplayed the term “measuring stick” when discussing Boston’s most daunting test to date in the 2018-19 campaign — a home matchup against the top team in the entire NHL in the Tampa Bay Lightning.
After all, both clubs won’t be operating at full strength when they meet at TD Garden on Thursday. David Pastrnak — Boston’s top goal scorer — is still out for at least another 10 days while recovering from thumb surgery, while Kevan Miller is doubtful due to an upper-body injury.
The Lightning, while relatively healthy, will likely be a bit gassed going into the matchup, with their first matchup with Boston in almost three months standing as the team’s third game in four days — and representing the second leg of a back-to-back slate.
“I always thought measuring stick was equal footing,” Cassidy said. “So equal lineups, I don’t know who they’ll have in or out. I know we're missing one of our regulars, who knows after that. I don't know which goalie we'll see. Now, having said that — I don't think it's just like a regular game. We haven't seen Tampa in a long time. They're the cream of the crop in the NHL.”
If Boston has any aspirations of hoisting Lord Stanley’s Cup come June, it will most likely have to topple Tampa — a team that has only dropped 11 games in regulation all season long.
To put in perspective, the sustained stretch of dominance that the Lightning have orchestrated this season, perhaps it best to dissect this Bruins club — which has won eight out of its last nine games in regulation and have collected points in 14 straight outings.
That’s an impressive run, but it hasn’t meant much in the standings, with the Lightning still holding on to a commanding 19-point cushion over the Bruins in the Atlantic Division. Winners of 10 straight games entering Thursday’s bout, the Lightning tied the 1971-72 Bruins for the second-fewest games needed (63) to reach the 100-point mark.
Lifted by three players on tap to reach notch 100-point campaigns in Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point and Steven Stamkos, a stout blue line anchored by Victor Hedman and Ryan McDonagh and a stout presence in net in Andrei Vasilevskiy (.930 save percentage), the Lightning are on pace for 130 points this season — a mark that only the 1976-77 Canadiens (132 points) and 1995-96 Detroit Red Wings (131) have reached.
Add in the fact that Tampa Bay is also tops in the league in goals per game (3.84), power-play percentage (29.7) and penalty-kill rate (86.1), and Cassidy was frank when discussing the challenge in front of Boston — both on Thursday for potentially in the postseason.
"I guess I'm surprised there's not another team ... what are they, (19) points ahead of us? And ahead of Calgary? Like double digits ahead of everybody,” Cassidy said. “That's impressive. So is it that the rest of us that need to get our ass in gear or just that they're doing so well?
“But it is impressive, whatever side of the coin you want to put that on. We saw it last year first hand. We know how good they can be, certainly no weaknesses. The fact that they're No. 1 on the power play and penalty kill —goals for, top of the league. That's special. Usually, you have a deficiency somewhere, but it doesn't look like they do, and we're going to find out tomorrow."
Boston hasn’t had much luck as of late against the Lightning, dropping five games in a row to Tampa Bay, dating back to last year’s postseason exit in the second round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
But are there lessons learned from the Bruins’ recent stretch of games against the Lightning? Let’s take a look at some recurring trends from the recent meetings between the two clubs.
1. Clamping down on 5v5 play
When you have two bonafide stars patrolling the blue line in Hedman and McDonagh and a top-tier netminder anchoring your defense in Vasilevskiy, 5v5 scoring chances are going to be hard to come by, especially with Tampa bench boss Jon Cooper having the luxury of splitting up his top defensemen on different pairings.
Boston has already struggled most of this season when it comes to generating offense at even strength —ranking 26th in the league in terms of 5v5 goals scored (112), with the five teams below the B’s all currently out of the playoff picture (Los Angeles, Edmonton, Dallas, Arizona and Anaheim).
But even last year, when they ranked 10th in 5v5 goals scored, the Bruins labored against a beefed-up Tampa defense in the postseason. After Torey Krug lit the lamp at even strength in the closing minutes of Game 2, the Bruins did not score another goal during 5-on-5 play for the remainder of the playoffs. Add in the lone 5v5 goal scored by Pastrnak during both teams’ last regular-season meeting back on Dec. 6, 2018 and Boston has only tallied one 5v5 goal in its last 247:20 of ice time against the Lightning.
(Boston's last 5v5 scored against Tampa - off an ugly turnover by McDonagh.)
Not having Pastrnak in the lineup is going to hurt, but Thursday will serve as a great opportunity for new additions in Charlie Coyle (22 even-strength points) and Marcus Johansson (27 5v5 zone entries per 60 minutes) to show what they can offer to a B’s forward corps in need of a spark up front, especially away from the man advantage, which has largely served a crutch for the B’s all season long.
2. Tampa shored up its major flaw
If there was one area that the Lightning were lacking in last season, it was on the penalty kill, where they ranked 28th in the NHL with a success rate of 76.1 percent. Boston made good on exploiting that weakness during the postseason, cashing in on five of its 12 chances on the man advantage.
That same mismatch won’t present itself this season, even as Boston’s power play has continued to operate as one of the top units in the league. But, while the personnel has remained the same, Tampa’s PK has turned the corner in a major way during the 2018-19 season, leading all NHL clubs with an 86.1 percent kill rate — to go along with six shorthanded tallies.
Having a full year in incorporate a defenseman like McDonagh (200:49 PK TOI) into Tampa’s system has clearly paid dividends, while Anthony Cirelli (168:37) stands as the Lightning’s go-to man up front — something that Boston knows all too well from its last meeting.
This is one of those shortys that makes you go ?. pic.twitter.com/iLzw4lrArD
— NHL (@NHL) December 7, 2018
Bruins turn it over in the neutral zone, Brayden Point burns Chara & Rask pic.twitter.com/Z0lTMGiWd3
— Pete Blackburn (@PeteBlackburn) May 4, 2018