With the Anthony Davis trade demand emerging late last month, the Celtics' 2019 stash of draft picks is worth watching closer than ever. Every single pick that the Celtics get and (don’t get) this June could have an underlying impact on their position in the Davis chase and what kind of player assets they may be required to put on the table if they want to land the All-Star.
It’s been a month since we checked in on the status of these selections but a lot has changed for the three teams (Grizzlies, Clippers, Kings) that could owe the Celtics a pick in June after a busy trade deadline for the entire group. Where are all three teams trending in the wake of those maneuvers? Let’s examine what’s at stake over the next two months for each of these squads, what their motives are and how each potential selection may impact the C’s plans.
Clippers
The pick protections: Top-14 in 2019, Top-14 in 2020. If not conveyed in 2020, will turn into 2021 second-round pick.
Overview: One of the toughest teams to figure out in the wake of a very eventful trade deadline. They moved their best player, Tobias Harris, to the Sixers for a terrific package of draft picks and young talent (Landry Shamet) and proceeded to strengthen their depth chart with some nice role pieces (JaMychal Green, Garrett Temple, Ivica Zubac) by the time the dust has settled on February 7th.
The end result? They have held onto the eighth spot in the West so far with a 3-1 record since their new-look group has come together and that’s terrific news for the Celtics. While it’s entirely possible this pick would end up conveying next season (top-14 protected in 2020 as well), the odds, that it will fall in as favorable (late teens) as it’s projected to this year, are low. The Clippers have enough cap room for two max players this offseason and have been linked to some pretty big names (Kawhi Leonard) already. Adding a star to this mix turns this group in a top-4 West team and pushes a first-round pick into the late first round. On the flip side, striking out in free agency next year could send this group back into the lottery, giving Boston the worst-case scenario (a second-round pick) if the selection doesn’t convey this year.
The bottom line? The Celtics could use the certainty of this pick now, both to ensure they get a first rounder and to have another valuable pick to throw into the mix for Davis trade talks. Having another first-round pick in 2019 could also be valuable for potential salary matching needs in a Davis deal since the C’s can trade a player 30 days after he signs his rookie deal (like they did with Ante Zizic in 2017).
The good news for the Celtics is that Clippers owner Steve Ballmer wants this team to make a postseason run despite the fact they would lose their pick, according to Sam Amick of the Athletic. The closing schedule (13 of final 22 games come at home) is favorable as well, giving them a realistic shot of them holding off the Lakers, Kings and Spurs for a final spot in West.
Odds C’s receive pick: 55 percent
Possible pick range for 2019: 17-19
Kings
Pick protections: Top-1 protected. If it lands at No. 1, Celtics will receive Sixers' first-round pick in 2019
Overview: With nothing to lose at the trade deadline and plenty of additional cap room to put to use, an up and coming Kings squad made a big splash by bringing aboard Harrison Barnes into the mix, a move that was effectively a future salary dump by the Mavericks. Barnes is overpaid at $25 million per year, but he gave Sacramento a legitimate presence at small forward to go with their dynamic backcourt in De’Aaron Fox and Buddy Hield. Alec Burks was also added as a depth piece off the bench.
While the Kings currently sit 1.5 games back of the Clippers and Spurs for the seven and eight spot in the West, they have the benefit of facing the fourth easiest schedule remaining in the league over the final 22 games. Whether that’s enough of an edge to pass those squads (and hold off the Lakers two games back) remains to be seen, but the early signs out of the All-Star Break are promising for Sacramento fans. The Kings took Golden State down to the wire at Oracle Arena in a tight loss and they followed up that performance with an impressive road win in Oklahoma City on Saturday night. They can play with anyone on any given night and the young pieces on this roster are hungry for a sniff of the postseason.
All of this is bad news for Boston, who hoped they would be receiving a high lottery pick from the Kings this year. Instead, a pick in the early teens is suddenly only a best-case scenario. Boston will have some say in this pick though over the next month with two head-to-head matchups with the Kings looming. However, one of the most promising assets in the team’s treasure chest looks more and more like a run of the mill draft pick and that will hurt them when including it in trade offers this summer.
Odds C’s receive pick: 100 percent
Pick range: 12-14, 17-20
Grizzlies
Pick protections: 2019: (top-8), 2020: (top-6), 2021: Unprotected
Overview: After spending much of the season doing their best to convey a top-eight protected pick to Boston in order to get that obligation out of the way, a miserable middle two months of the season have caused them to change course. They shopped Mike Conley Jr. and Marc Gasol at the trade deadline, before ultimately deciding to move on from their veteran center for an underwhelming return from the Raptors. They also dealt away role pieces in JaMychal Green and Garrett Temple for Avery Bradley, in what serves as a curious cost-cutting move.
The end result is a team with Conley and a bunch of underwhelming role players that is intent on maximizing their own draft position for this June. They currently hold the sixth-worst record in the NBA but are within range of the Hawks (2.5 games ahead) to get to the five spot in the lottery by the time the lottery rolls around. With rookie power forward Jaren Jackson sidelined with a thigh bruise for the foreseeable future, it will not be a surprise to see them continuing to fall down the standings out West in hopes of nabbing another elite prospect.
So what are the odds the C’s get this pick? If the Grizzlies current position holds, the C’s have just under a four percent chance at getting No. 9 overall from Memphis this year if three teams manage to jump them on lottery nights. Barring a jump up in the standings over the Wizards or Mavericks, Boston can write off getting this pick this season and that’s good news for Danny Ainge when it comes to dealing.
The Grizzlies long-term outlook is as bleak as ever with very few building blocks on the roster outside of an aging Conley and Jackson. With loosened draft protections for the next two seasons, the odds that this pick will ultimately fall in the top-10 is extremely high and that makes it Boston’s most valuable draft trade chip.
Odds C’s receive the pick in 2019: Four percent
Where will it fall if C's do receive the pick in 2019: 9-10
Other NBA News and Notes
- The NBA did submit a proposal to the players union this week that would lower the NBA draft age from 19 to 18. However, this current proposal would not go into effect until the 2022 NBA Draft, limiting the impact on Boston’s current draft assets (i.e. the Grizzlies pick, would be unprotected in 2021).
- Keep an eye on the tug of war between the league and Pelicans management over the status of Anthony Davis playing games for the rest of the year. He’s agreed to sit out the second half of back-to-backs, but given the risks involved for the Pelicans and their improved play when he sits, I wouldn’t be surprised if the league ultimately lets the team shut down the All-Star.
- A couple potential buyout additions were taken off the board this week as Michael Beasley agreed to a deal in China while Milos Tedosoic announced he planned on sitting out the season after being waived by the Clippers. It remains very slim pickings on the free agent front with less than a week to go before the buyout waiver deadline. A player must be a free agent before March 1 for that player to be eligible to play in the postseason for a new team.
- The Celtics aren’t the only team dealing with teammates questioning each other’s motives. LeBron James called his Lakers teammates out for a ‘lack of urgency’ following a blowout loss to a Pelicans team that didn’t suit up Davis on Saturday night. The Lakers are 3.5 games out a playoff spot with 23 games to play.