Based on Don Sweeney’s comments on Thursday, it seems as though the Bruins’ GM is content with the composition of his roster just a couple days out from Monday’s NHL trade deadline.
On paper, there’s quite a bit to like. Even without their top goal scorer in David Pastrnak, Boston has been on a roll as of late, winning seven straight contests and capturing points for 12 consecutive games.
Maybe Sweeney is being forthright and sincere about how he thinks the current iteration of Boston’s roster stacks up against some of the other big dogs in the Eastern Conference. Or perhaps he’s just keeping his cards close to his chest as he looks to pull off another deal before 3 p.m. on Monday.
But one thing is certain: Even with the addition of Charlie Coyle to stabilize the third line, Boston doesn’t have enough firepower to go toe to toe with a team like the Lightning, who are currently obliterating the competition with an 18-point cushion over the Bruins in the Atlantic Division — a Bruins team with the third-best record in the entire NHL.
Both in terms of rounding out the lineup and giving a spark to a Bruins’ offense that ranks 25th in 5v5 goals tallied (109), Boston needs to make a move to bring in a top-six winger — and even after trading Ryan Donato, the organization has plenty of pieces it can dangle over a club while looking for the proper deal.
Loaded with assets such as a first-round pick, prospects like Urho Vaakanainen and Jack Studnicka, or cost-controlled players up at the NHL level like Matt Grzelcyk, Danton Heinen and others, Sweeney has the resources to be involved in every trade whisper fluttering out on the market.
The possibilities are endless for the Bruins in terms of adding skill and scoring on the wing: Chris Kreider is an option on the rebuilding Rangers, Mike Hoffman is as consistent as they come in terms of lighting the lamp and Wayne Simmonds is the power forward every Bruins fan swoons over.
But given the window that this Bruins core has — along with the assets at Sweeney’s disposal — why not swing for the fences?
Even as a rental, Senators winger Mark Stone is going to net quite the return for the Senators if they deal him this week.
"If the Ottawa Senators do trade Mark Stone, the belief is that they’d be looking for four elements to the trade. It could be as much as two first-round picks and two very good prospects,” TSN’s Bob McKenzie said earlier this week.
Yeeesh. That’s a steep price to pay, especially for a star player in Stone who has no guarantees on returning the following season.
Still, is it worth it for the Bruins to make a run at Stone? Let’s take a look:
Is there a fit?
On paper, through deeper analytics and even with the good ‘ole eye test — yes, Mark Stone would be a game-changer up front for this Bruins team. Stone, 26, is in the midst of a career year for the lowly Senators, with the winger on pace to tally 38 goals and 84 total points.
Pairing him on a line centered by either Patrice Bergeron or David Krejci might help Stone ramp up his production even more in the offensive zone, but it seems like the forward doesn’t need much help when it comes to being a plus-player.
As you can see, Stone blows every other Bruin out of the water when it comes to Goals Above Replacement — similar to baseball’s WAR in terms of measuring the total amount of goals a player adds to his team relative to a replacement level player.
In fact, Stone leads all NHL players in GAR this season — even above stars like Sidney Crosby, Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, Erik Karlsson and others.
Why? You can chalk up most of it to Stone’s complete game, with the winger on pace to earn major Selke Trophy consideration at the end of this year. When looking at Stone’s strengths, they coincide with areas that Boston could use a lift in as it preps for another run for Lord Stanley’s Cup.
While a recent surge in scoring sans Pastrnak has seen Boston rise from the lower third of the league in goals per game to its current standing of 15th place at 2.98, the addition of Stone would give Boston a top six capable of rivaling what Tampa can roll out with players like Kucherov, Point and Steven Stamkos.
By rolling out a group such as:
Marchand-Bergeron-Pastrnak
DeBrusk-Krejci-Stone
Boston finally would have a dynamic winger to pair with Krejci in Stone — coupling him with a red-hot Jake DeBrusk — while that top line has already established itself as one of the most dominant trios in the entire NHL.
Adding a player like Stone also has a positive trickle-down effect, with a player up in a top-six spot like Danton Heinen or Karson Kuhlman getting a chance to form a strong third line with some more dependable talent on board with Coyle at the pivot.
Stone’s offensive numbers, especially during 5v5 play (22 5v5 goals), would be a major lift for the Bruins. But it’s his play away from the puck that could be the X-factor in getting over teams like Tampa Bay and Toronto.
When Bruce Cassidy has matched up Patrice Bergeron and Zdeno Chara against the opposing team’s top line or player, it’s usually worked out pretty well in the postseason — whether it be Auston Matthews (1 goal, 1 assist over 7 games) or Kucherov (1 goal, 1 assist over 5 games) last year.
However, in both 2018 playoff series, Boston usually found itself burned by the opposition's second line, with contributors like Mitch Marner (nine points over seven games) and Point (seven points over five games) serving as fatal mismatches.
Adding a top defensive player like Stone to account for that other top-six line could do wonders for the Bruins team — and Stone has the credentials to back up an assignment like that.
Even with his gaudy offensive numbers, only 49.5 percent of Stone's zone starts this year have begun in the offensive zone, a testament to Ottawa’s faith in rolling him out for lockdown shifts against some imposing lines.
The numbers speak for themselves — while most forwards win around 37 percent of their neutral-zone puck battles, Stone has hovered around 70 percent all season long. Over the last four years, no player has more takeaways that Stone with 283 — more than players like Connor McDavid (220) and Bergeron (187).
No matter what area of the game you want to focus on — the result remains the same, Stone would be a huge coup for this Bruins team.
But at what cost?
Here’s where things get interesting — despite how great Stone might be, is it worth giving up say: a first-round pick, a 2020 second-rounder, Danton Heinen and a prospect like Jack Studnicka for a rental in Stone? Perhaps you can offload more prospects to offset having to part ways with a Grade-A talent like Studnicka or Urho Vaakanainen, but you have to figure that Ottawa’s going to have a high asking price.
Now, Boston has the assets to pull off a deal like this, it has a win-now window with guys like Bergeron and Krejci not getting any younger — so why not go for it? Given the cost, however, it’d be a tough pill to swallow if Boston can only keep Stone around for a couple of months before he cashes in during free agency.
That’s where things get tricky. Sure, Stone would help this team tremendously both this season and years to come, but does Boston have the cap flexibility to absorb a contract that could see Stone earn close to $10 million annually?
Accordingly to CapFriendly, the Bruins are currently expected to have about $13.5 million in cap space for the 2019-20 season, more than enough to handle a huge deal for Stone. But Boston has other financial obligations this offseason, with Charlie McAvoy due for a pay raise as a restricted free agent — alongside other RFAs in Heinen, Cehlarik and Brandon Carlo.
Boston does have some cash freed up with Zdeno Chara set to become a free agent and $866,6667 off the books from Jimmy Hayes’ buyout — but Boston will still be paying $1,166,667 off of Dennis Seidenberg’s buyout.
Other cap-crunch moves would likely have to involve Boston parting ways with a prospect or picks in order to offload David Backes’ contract ($6 million yearly cap hit), while Torey Krug could be on the way out, considering he’s set for a huge raise after he becomes a free agent in 2020.
So could Boston retain Stone? It’s certainly possible — and might be necessary if the Bruins really want to contend for a Cup this season and beyond. But the cost to bring aboard the franchise winger clearly goes far beyond what Sweeney would have to part with over the next couple of days.
B’s aren’t sweating trade deadline
Even if Sweeney noted that the Bruins might be standing pat for the next couple of days, the looming deadline can cast a shadow over a locker room — especially with a Bruins team with plenty of promising trade capital.
So far, it doesn’t seem like any potential trades are causing players to grip their sticks a little tighter, given that Boston has failed to lose in regulation this entire month. Cassidy noted on Friday that Boston’s coaching staff really hasn’t made the next couple of days much of a topic when addressing the room.
“I don't think so,” Cassidy said of the deadline throwing off his players. “I think, the guys that get worried are on teams that are maybe sellers, not as much buyers, I would think. As a player here, they'd be comfortable with that part of it, but I guess they can only answer that. We have not addressed it internally. It's out there, everyone knows the deadline, it's coming.
“There's nothing I can tell them that's going to make them feel better or worse. That's Donny who's going to make those decisions going forward, who's in, who's out. But deep down, I don't think there's a lot of nerves in our room right now."
Nice start for Donato
Heading to a team that was set to hand him plenty more minutes and shifts, it seemed like a certainty a volume shooter like Ryan Donato was going to start contributing right away with the Wild.
The headlining piece sent to Minnesota in the Coyle deal, Donato has had a strong start so far with his new team, notching three assists in two games played — while averaging 15:39 TOI, almost two minutes over his regular rate with Boston this season.
After his debut on Thursday, a game in which he tied a season-high with 22 shifts, Donato hinted that perhaps Boston’s coaching staff had lost confidence in him during his final stint up with the Bruins before returning to Providence.
“They just said, ‘Go and play,’ and that’s when I think I’m at my best when (coaches) have the confidence in me and they let me play,” Donato told Michael Russo of The Athletic Minnesota. “It’s been a while since the coaches have had a lot of confidence in me to play me in all situations."
At this point, it looks as though the trade satisfies all parties — Boston desperately needed to bring aboard a third-line center to drive a portion of the roster that has largely failed to pull its weight all season long, while Donato is now expected to get a chance to showcase his offensive skills with heavier minutes, looking to find the success that Frank Vatrano (20 goals, 33 points) has achieved in his first full season with Florida.
As for Cassidy’s response to Donato’s comments?
"Listen, he had a good game. Good for him. I wish him well,” Cassidy said. “He's a good kid, Ryan. Good player. Just didn't work — I shouldn't say it didn't work out. I thought he was developing well from what I heard in Providence from what I've heard. But Donny decided — that's the player they wanted I guess, I'm out of that stuff. I wish him well."
Is Joel Ward what the Leafs need to get over the hump against Boston?
Longtime NHL veteran Joel Ward hasn’t played so far in the 2018-19 season, but could the winger be what a team like Toronto needs to get past the Bruins in a potential playoff series?
Ward broke the Bruins’ hearts during the 2012 Stanley Cup Playoffs, putting an end to Boston’s hopes of a repeat after scoring the game-winning goal in overtime during the first round of the playoffs.
Given the Leafs’ struggles with getting past Boston over their last few postseason meetings, Ward volunteered for a spot on Toronto's roster after a Sportsnet segment discussed what additions Toronto needs to make to punch their ticket to the next round.
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— Joel Ward (@JRandalWard42) February 19, 2019