Barring some completely unforeseen circumstance, the Red Sox would seem to be through building their bullpen for the start of the season. And by "building,'' we mean: "crossing their fingers and going with what they have on hand.''
It's a curious and risky strategy. The Red Sox lost set-up man Joe Kelly to free agency, and appear willing to do the same with closer Craig Kimbrel, who remains on the market as pitchers and catchers begin trickling into camp.
Boston's payroll is pushing $240 million, and for the time being, it would appear that the team wishes to remain under the final threshold to avoid the penalties that come with the luxury tax.
For now, they seem content with taking a look at some minor league free agents and hoping someone emerges from the pack, similar to the way Ryan Brasier did a year ago. Brasier was signed to a minor league deal in February, pitched in Pawtucket for the first half and, following a major league call-up in July, became one of three most trusted relievers on the Sox by the end of the year.
"Ryan opened our eyes,'' said Alex Cora recently. "There are guys out there who can do the job. You just have to identify them.''
For a rebuilding team, one which had no hope of contending in 2019, such a plan would be understandable. But the Sox have invested plenty in the rest of their roster -- they have the game's highest payroll for the second straight year -- and are intent on successfully defending their World Series title.
Having an unproven closer -- either Brasier or Matt Barnes -- is an unusual tact for a team that's otherwise all-in.
With that in mind, we surveyed a handful of evaluators -- scouts and executives -- for their take on the Sox' bullpen plans.
"The bullpen is the one area that's a little easier to fix than others,'' said a major league front office person from another club. "It's a hell of a lot easier than trying to re-make your rotation on the fly. But they're going to have to get lucky on a guy or two. The problem with hitting on Brasier is you start thinking you can do it all the time. And it's not that easy.''
Most of the evaluators surveyed had duel concerns: entrusting the ninth inning to someone who hasn't previously handled it and the domino effect of having others assume the high-leverage spot being vacated by either Barnes or Brasier.
"I have grave concerns that they don't have that experienced back-end guy,'' noted a veteran scout. "No one has that track record (in the ninth inning), and the only way to find out is 'sink-or-swim.' But on top of that, who steps up to replace whoever they move into the closer role? That's not always an easy jump.''
A year ago, Heath Hembree and Brandon Workman were options in the sixth or seventh innings. This year, with a vacancy in the set-up role, one will have to emerge as a trusted piece for the eighth inning.
Given the up-and-down nature of relievers, another evaluator understands the thought process.
"Every year, there's a guy who's sucked for the last three years who figures some things out,'' he said. "So, it's a matter of increasing your odds by signing a bunch of those guys and figuring someone will emerge from that group. Because you never know with the bullpen.''
But another executive thinks the Sox are leaving too much to chance.
"I respect the luxury tax thing and the penalties you incur (by going over the final threshold) and what it costs you,'' he said. "But you're the world champs, man.''
Meanwhile, several of those surveyed wondered what sort of problems would arise if the experiment fails early in the season.
"When you have a club this good, defending World Series champions, to lose a few games in the ninth inning won't go over well,'' noted a scout. "It can be pretty demoralizing to be up 5-3 in the eighth and lose 11-7.''
And several noted it's highly unlikely for the Sox to begin 2019 as well as they did last year, when they were 17-2, providing themselves with the early momentum and confidence such a start brings.
"If the Yankees get off to a good start and you look up in May and you're already six or seven games back...'' said one front office person. "Suddenly, that puts a lot of pressure on everyone and people start second-guessing: 'Why didn't we bring back Kimbrel?' And that could start happening every time they blow a save.''
Said another evaluator: "This would be like the Patriots not having a good kicker -- it's going to cost you. It's a big gamble. (The Red Sox) are so good everywhere else.''
"I'll be curious how this plays out,'' said one scout. "I think a lot of people will be watching.''
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- The elimination of the DH for the National League: This is overdue, frankly, since it's silly to have different rules in place when teams meet in interleague play or the World Series. Some NL traditionalists can dig in on this one, but it's clear that change is coming. Not this year, as Rob Manfred noted to the AP Friday -- but sometime soon.
- Rosters expand to 26 through the end of August, and grow to 28 for September. I'd endorse both of these, too. The former allows for an additional player at a time when some teams are playing with a four-man bench. The latter eliminates the hideous practice of unequal rosters in the final month and eliminates the endless parade of relievers in late-season games.
- A rule that mandates a pitcher faces a minimum of three batters. This would help eliminate the constant churn of relief specialists and halve the practice of using three or four relievers in an inning in an effort to get the perfect lefty-righty matchup, and would go a long way toward speeding up the pace of play.
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