A lot has been made in the aftermath of Super Bowl LIII about the adjustment Josh McDaniels made on the Patriots' touchdown drive that eventually won the game.
Bill Belichick raved about it in his postgame press conference. Peter King and others wrote about it. This tends to happen in these types of games and with this Patriots team in particular: there had to be some genius at play, and the mundane gets overpraised.
This isn't really about McDaniels. As usual, he had another great gameplan, the Rams were just up for the challenge and their team speed and physicality was unlike just about anything the Patriots have seen probably since the Vikings game.
I just think the oversimplification of the final sequence doesn't give enough credence to two more important things on that drive: miscues by the Rams, and flat-out great plays by the Patriots' players.
The Rams didn't adjust properly. It's not like the Patriots' decision to go with "22" personnel (two backs, two tight ends and one receiver) and then spread them out with the empty formation caused the Rams to put their goal-line package in. Just the opposite: they stuck with their base defense, which is already a nickel defense. The Rams had more than enough personnel on the field to defend this sequence, they just failed to do it properly. In addition, the Rams' coaches probably should have called a timeout to make sure they had the right matchups with the game on the line. They didn't, and there was some confusion that aided the Patriots.
The other — and more important — factor on that drive was that the Patriots' best players just made great plays. Tom Brady, who was unsettled throughout the game, threw two dimes to Rob Gronkowski, who made a pair of stellar catches. And Julian Edelman continued to wear out the Rams' coverage with his precise and explosive route running (health is a good thing, isn't it?).
Did McDaniels' decision aid the Patriots? Sure. But the truth of the matter is that the Rams' matchup decisions and the Patriots' execution were way more important. In fact, if the Rams had been matched up properly, the Patriots very well could have been screwed and the drive would have stalled.
Here are two videos that explain what I'm talking about:
Gronkowski's 18-yard reception
The touchdown drive
Let's go through the plays.
1ST & 10 AT NE 31 — (9:49) T.Brady pass short right to R.Gronkowski to NE 49 for 18 yards (S.Ebukam).
Patriots are in 21 personnel. I've never seen the Patriots run this type of play — a deep run fake with Gronkowski going on a wheel route instead of a flare — but I could be wrong. I think this was game-plan specific for this game and McDaniels waited for the right time to use it.
It was a great route by Gronkowski, but it appeared that safety Josh Johnson busted the over-the-top coverage.
If Gronk isn't open, Brady really doesn't have any other options.
1ST & 10 AT NE 49 — (8:50) (Shotgun) T.Brady pass short middle to J.Edelman to LA 38 for 13 yards (C.Littleton).
The Patriots go to 22 personnel. Instead of the Rams matching personnel — they have five defensive backs on the field against only one receiver — they stay with their normal zone coverage, meaning Aqib Talib and Marcus Peters are matched up against Rex Burkhead and James Develin. That leaves linebacker Cory Littleton on Edelman. Yeah, good luck with that.
1ST & 10 AT LA 38 (8:16) — (Shotgun) T.Brady pass short left to R.Burkhead pushed ob at LA 31 for 7 yards (M.Peters).
So the Patriots snuck one by the Rams on the previous play. It happens. Adjust when it happens again. The Rams do not. Still, they vice Edelman and hit Gronkowski off the line. That makes Brady take the easy money to Burkhead.
2ND & 3 AT LA 31 (7:43) — (Shotgun) T.Brady pass deep left to R.Gronkowski to LA 2 for 29 yards (C.Littleton).
The offensive play of the game. The Patriots stick with the same personnel and the same formation. Have the Rams adjusted? No. Do they take a timeout to make sure they have the matchups they want at a critical juncture? No. In fact, they're more confused than ever with several Rams players not sure of where to line up. This reminds me of the Zach Ertz touchdown in last year's Super Bowl. I said then the Patriots should have called timeout. They did not. The Rams make the same mistake.
Gronkowski runs the same route as the last play and has Littleton (not a safety or corner, despite there being just one receiver on the field) in coverage. To his credit, Littleton has really good coverage down the field through the catch. It's just Brady makes an all-time throw and Gronkowski an all-time catch.
The bottom line is even though the Rams made some miscues on this sequence, they still covered really well. It's not like McDaniels' decision led to a personnel mismatch or a coverage bust by the Rams — the coverage was right there throughout.
The difference? Brady and Gronkowski grabbing, perhaps, one last moment of glory together.
Give those players their due.
Here are the positional ratings against the Rams:
Quarterback (3.5 out of 5)
Outside a few big ones (the interception against trap coverage; the sack/fumble after 5.38 seconds), Brady didn't make many mistakes in this game. He was just uncomfortable throughout and part of that had to do with a 30 percent pressure rate. ... His first three passes: interception on the type of mistake an inexperienced player makes, incomplete on a rushed swing pass to Sony Michel, third was an easy speed out, and then a minus-4 screen that was negated on a bad personal foul call. Then they had to take two timeouts and Brady was nearly picked off again when he stared down Hogan. Not exactly Brady in control early. ... This looked more like Brady in the middle of the season. He was very cognizant of the rush and reacted to it. The Rams were swarming up front. ... That being said, if the Patriots needed more in this game, I'm sure Brady would have gotten it for them. It's just the score and game flow dictated that he merely manage the game, circa 2001. ... His positive plays (seven plus throws) still outweighed his negative (four) if you don't put extra weight on the turnover and near-turnover.
Running backs (3 out of 5)
Besides a couple of broken tackles by Michel (who also had a drop) this was all about the blocking when the Patriots did manage to pop a couple of runs. ... The Patriots running wham on Ndamukong Suh on the first play of the game was such an obvious call that I said it would happen in the pre-game chat. ... Give most of the credit to Trent Brown on Michel's touchdown and a little to James Develin. Michel wasn't touched until he was in the end zone. ... Develin met his match against the Rams linebackers. Those guys played really well. ... Patriots used their backs a lot to chip. Combine that with Brady not wanting to hold the ball explains why they weren't involved much in the pass game.
Receivers (4 out of 5)
Edelman was superb and a deserving MVP. He had a drop but his route running has never been finer. He just could not be covered one-on-one. Mistake by the Rams not to have a better plan. ... Gronkowski had a very good all-around game despite two penalties (he was guilty of illegal motion and his hold could have been catastrophic on the final drive). ... Chris Hogan had a drop (for a whole 1 yard) and he also seemed to run a poor route on a dig over the middle. Brady's pass came up about a yard short but that's because Hogan faded the route by 3 yards.
Offensive line (4 out of 5)
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That Rams defensive line was legit. They were fast, strong and physical. They gave the Patriots all they could handle. A 30 percent pressure rate might be high compared to the Chargers and Chiefs games, but that's about the norm against a good front. ... Patriots only single-blocked Aaron Donald seven times. They wanted to avoid him at all costs and they largely did. Most of the time they ran away from him — and the Patriots were wise to cut off his backside support on those plays — but there were some doubles at the point of attack. ... Dante Fowler was immense in this game as he won his share of battles against Brown and Marcus Cannon. Except when Brown worked him in the video below. Ouch... Brown and Shaq Mason were the most physical in this game. In order of effectiveness: Mason, David Andrews, Thuney, Brown, Cannon.