The NHL trade deadline is now less than a month away, and as expected, the Bruins are going to be active in search of key cogs up front. Boston’s search for a reliable top-six wing and a third-line center has been an ongoing saga for most of the 2018-19 season, but thankfully for Don Sweeney and Co., there looks to be plenty of worthy candidates out on the trade market.
Let’s take a look at a few potential trade targets for Boston, especially in terms of what they can bring to the Bruins when it comes to solving the club’s 5v5 scoring woes.
(All stats are courtesy of Corsica and Sean Tierney of @ChartingHockey.)
Brayden Schenn
Height: 6-foot-1
Weight: 201 lbs
Age: 27
Current Team: St. Louis Blues
Contract Status: $5.125 million AAV / Under contract through 2020
Stats: 45 games played, 9 goals, 18 assists
Is he a fit? The search for a viable third-line center has been an ongoing issue all season long for the Bruins in wake of Riley Nash’s departure via free agency this summer. A number of players have earned reps at the pivot so far this year — including Sean Kuraly, David Backes, Colby Cave and Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson.
While the “Kid Line” of Forsbacka Karlsson, Danton Heinen and Ryan Donato has shown some progress together, you’d have to think another playoff club with plenty of forward depth such as Tampa Bay would feast against a trio that has been relatively sheltered in terms of minutes and starts outside of the defensive zone.
If Boston indeed makes upgrading its third line a priority over say, another top-six winger, you certainly can’t go wrong with Schenn. While he’s having a bit of a down year on a struggling St. Louis squad, the skilled playmaker is coming off of a 70-point campaign in 2017-18 — and has averaged 26 goals and 61 points over the past three seasons. Along with giving a club versatility as both a center and a wing, Schenn offers some security, with the 27-year-old skater under contract for another season at a fair value of $5.125 million.
If you’re looking to give Boston’s third line a shot in the arm — and hopefully get someone like Danton Heinen going as a result, you can’t go wrong with Schenn, who’d give the Bruins three pretty great centers to work with.
Deeper Dive: While Schenn may be slumping a bit in terms of production in his second year with the Blues, the case could be made that Schenn has been horribly unlucky, especially when looking at his shot preferences and expected goals calculated.
(Expected goals are essentially shot attempts that have been weighed for shot quality — which include the type of shot taken, angle, distance and situation. While it’s not a perfect tool when it comes to evaluating a player — it can shed some light on a skater that’s a bit snakebit despite generating quality looks, while also predicting better play down the road.)
Schenn certainly loves his wrister, but the pivot does a great job of saving his shots for high-quality chances — averaging much closer than the league average for shot distance at around 24 feet. When you look at the quality of his shot attempts, plus the amount of attempts he has coming off of rebounds (16), you’d have to think that Schenn has been a bit unlucky in the scoring department.
In fact, Schenn’s individual expected goals totals out to 15.07 — meaning that the center should have at least seven more goals that he currently has, given the amount of quality chances he generates in the offensive zone. Not too shabby, especially for a player that has generated 20 of his 27 points this season at even strength, something that Boston would especially value.
What will it cost?
You’d have to think that a deal for Schenn would be similar what Pittsburgh had to give up to pry another center with term away from his club in Derick Brassard last season — a first, third and fourth-round draft pick, goalie prospect Filip Gustavsson, Ian Cole and Ryan Reaves (sent to Vegas in the three-team deal).
A first-rounder and likely another draft pick or two would likely have to be on the table in a deal for Schenn, while an NHL-level talent like Ryan Donato or JFK could also go. While you’d have to think a prospect like Urho Vaakanainen and Jack Studnicka would only go for a substantial trade target, perhaps prospects like Trent Frederic or Zach Senyshyn could be in play.
Kevin Hayes
Height: 6-foot-5
Weight: 216 lbs
Age: 26
Current Team: New York Rangers
Contract Status: $5.175 million AAV / Unrestricted free agent this offseason
Stats: 39 games played, 10 goals, 23 assists
Is he a fit? With the Rangers in full rebuild mode, it looks as though Hayes’ tenure in the Big Apple is going to be coming to end within the next month. While the Blueshirts would love to retain the pivot for the foreseeable future, the Dorchester native is set for a big payday this summer — especially given how he’s on pace to shatter his previous career high in scoring, with the current estimate tabbed at 62 points.
A solid, two-way forward who ranks fourth among Rangers forwards in power-play minutes (91:43) and second in penalty-kill minutes (80:15), Hayes might just be a rental, but he’s the kind of piece that can put a team over the top, especially if he’s slotted into a role such as third-line center.
Deeper Dive: Unlike Schenn, Hayes is more or less in line with his individual expected goals totals (11.52), just one off of his actual total. Despite his size (6-foot-5), Hayes doesn’t just limit himself to banging bodies down low in the slot — with his average shot distance measuring out to about 30 feet.
Still, Hayes has found plenty of success when he does camp out near the crease or in the slot, with three of his 10 tallies coming by way of a tip or a deflection.
He may not be in line for as big of an offensive rebound as someone like Schenn is, but Hayes value as a 200-foot-player that’s certainly no slouch in the O-zone certainty makes him a big target this February.
When looking at goals above replacement — similar to Baseball’s WAR in terms of how skaters are contributing to a team’s overall performance, Hayes GAR of 9.40 would actually place him third overall among Bruins forwards in that category, behind only David Pastrnak and Brad Marchand.
What will it cost?
Given that Hayes will essentially be a rental for a contending team, you’d have to think that the cost to pry Hayes from New York would be less than what you’d have to give up to acquire a player with term, like Schenn. Still, with Hayes production and versatility on special teams, it will still cost quite a bit, with New York likely in pursuit of at least a first rounder and a prospect or two, similar to what they acquired last year in the Rick Nash deal.
Wayne Simmonds
Height: 6-foot-2
Weight: 185 lbs
Age: 30
Current Team: Philadelphia Flyers
Contract Status: $3.975 million AAV / Unrestricted free agent this offseason
Stats: 48 games played, 15 goals, 8 assists
Is he a fit? Much like Hayes, it seems as though Simmonds could be on his way out thanks to a bigger contract on the horizon. After dealing with injuries last season, Simmonds has rebounded in 2018-19, with the winger on pace to tally 25-plus goals for the sixth time in his career.
A power forward that’s a menace down low, Simmonds will be in high demand this February, with contending teams looking to add a top-six presence that can also add plenty of grit to a roster. As evidenced last postseason when a loaded Lightning squad was manhandled by the Capitals, sometimes you need a big man down low to make things uncomfortable for the opposition. Simmonds fits that billing, while also potting a few goals of his own as well.
A player like David Krejci has always excelled when paired with larger wingers with a nose for the goal (such as Nathan Horton and Milan Lucic). You’d have to think that production would continue if Boston was able to acquire a guy like Simmonds for the stretch run.
Deeper Dive: One thing’s for sure when it comes to Simmonds in the offensive zone — he knows where the bread and butter of his game is, and it’s right in and around the crease.
With an average shot distance of just under 24 feet, Simmonds limits his chances to in close, with only two of his 15 goals this season coming off of attempts outside of the low slot or crease. His propensity for taking shots in Grade-A areas of the ice has led to an individual expected goals calculation of 20.25 — five off of his actual total.
When looking at goals above replacement, Simmonds actually falls into the lower portion of Boston’s current forward corps, due in large part to a poor showing on the power play. Still, Simmonds’ tried-and-true offensive game is effective at even strength, with his GAR in those situations calculating out at 2.30 — good for sixth on the club and in a tie with a fellow top-six winger in Jake DeBrusk. With Boston in desperate need of some 5v5 production, adding a big body like Simmonds can go a long way.
What will it cost?
He might be another rental, but Simmonds will likely cost quite a bit — due both to his steady level of production and the fact that plenty of contenders will be vying for his services. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Flyers get a team to bite on a package similar to the Rick Nash deal last season. Another first rounder, prospect and NHL body have to be on the table.
Jakob Silfverberg
Height: 6-foot-1
Weight: 204 lbs
Age: 28
Current Team: Anaheim Ducks
Contract Status: $3.75 million AAV / Unrestricted free agent this offseason
Stats: 42 games played, 12 goals, 7 assists
Is he a fit? The Ducks are in a bit of a tough spot, with the team still hovering around playoff contention but as a whole hamstrung due to albatross contracts and a lack of production in the offensive zone. This team would be in reaaaaaaal rough shape if John Gibson wasn’t standing on his head for most of this season.
Still, with Silfverberg in line for a raise this summer, it wouldn’t come as much of a surprise if the Ducks part ways with the winger, who brings plenty of value for a team in search of a versatile forward.
A good defensive forward who's on pace to hover around 20 goals this season, Silfverberg can be a nice pickup for a contender that could turn out to be a steal come spring. Since the start of the 2014-15 season, Silfverberg has tallied 39 points over 44 postseason games.
Deeper Dive: While Silfverberg has some size on the wing and is a reliable penalty killer, you might be concerned in what the winger could offer the Bruins when it comes to 5v5 play. While he may have 12 goals this year, only six of them have come during 5v5 situations — not a good sign for a Bruins club that needs more production in that area.
Unlike some of the other trade targets we’ve mentioned earlier, Silfverberg’s individual expected goal total is actually less than what his actual goal total is, a sign that the winger has had some fortuitous bounces go his way. A big part of that could be the attempts he takes in the offensive zone, with his average shot distance tabbed as under the league average at 36 feet.
Add in a GAR situated at -3.30 — which would be last on the Bruins among forwards — and the case could be made that Silfverberg may not totally clear up Boston’s scoring woes at 5v5 play. However, you could also say that a change of scenery could do him some good, considering the doldrums that most of the Ducks have been in this season in the O-zone.
What will it cost?
It may not take a first rounder to get Silfverberg out of Anaheim, but you’d have to think the Ducks will be in search of some draft capital, as well as a prospect or two in a potential deal. If Boston wants to swing for a bigger trade target at center, it likely will still have chips to play if it wanted to take a look at Silfverberg.
Micheal Ferland
Height: 6-foot-1
Weight: 217 lbs
Age: 26
Current Team: Carolina Hurricanes
Contract Status: $1.75 million AAV / Unrestricted free agent this offseason
Stats: 41 games played, 13 goals, 12 assists
Is he a fit? Same old song & dance when it comes to Ferland and his current club, the Hurricanes. Strong, physical winger with scoring pop that’s due for a big pay raise this summer. With Carolina on the rise but wanting to keep its cap commitments in check for now, look for Ferland to be on the move at some point within the next month.
Ferland is a great plug-and-play option for a team in search of a scoring boost on the wing, with the 26-year-old bruiser on pace for 23 goals this season — which would be a career high. Along with adding some size to a team’s forward corps, Ferland can play both at right or left wing, and is also a valuable weapon on a power-play unit.
Deeper Dive: Another bruising winger who's at his best when he has the puck down low, Ferland is right in line with his individual expected goals total (13.86). In total, 10 of his goals have come in the low slot, while his average shot distance clocks in at about 25 feet.
While Ferland’s GAR of 3.40 would place him fifth among Bruins forwards, you’d have to wonder how much the winger would lift the Bruins at 5v5 play. Ferland has been huge on Carolina’s power play, with five of his 13 goals coming during the man advantage, to go along with four helpers in those same situations.
Still, he’s productive enough during 5v5 play that he’d still be a solid pickup for a Bruins team in desperate need of secondary scoring.
What will it cost?
Given how much a player that fits the mold of Ferland is in high demand, you’d have to think that Carolina will wait for a club to finally bite and offer up a first rounder for the winger. If that cost drops a bit, look for the Bruins to keep tabs on the winger. Given how desperate Boston was to re-acquire a first rounder last year after parting with its own in the Nash deal, I don’t expect Don Sweeney and his staff to part with another valuable draft pick unless it’s absolutely necessary.
Jesse Puljujarvi
Height: 6-foot-4
Weight: 201 lbs
Age: 20
Current Team: Edmonton Oilers
Contract Status: $925,000 AAV / Restricted free agent this offseason
Stats: 39 games played, four goals, five assists
Is he a fit?
In a perfect world, the Oilers would not want to part ways with a 20-year-old winger like Puljujarvi, whom Edmonton drafted with the fourth overall pick in the 2016 NHL Draft.
Still, with the Oilers in a bit of a crossroads when it comes to fully rebuilding or attempting to right the ship in wake of Peter Chiarelli’s firing, Puljujarvi seems to be in play, with Edmonton looking to acquire some more young talent that might stand to be a better fit with players like Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl.
Acquiring a player like Puljujarvi might be a bit of a risk, with that team essentially hoping that the young power forward turns the corner after a change in scenery. So far, he’s been a bit of a disappointment — tallying 17 goals over 132 games after getting rushed up to the NHL ranks far too soon.
Still, there’s always a chance that Puljujarvi rewards a team by becoming the physical, top-six forward that can be a mainstay in a lineup for years to come. Given what seems like a lengthy retooling ahead for the Oilers, it will be interesting to see if the club looks to cut bait with Puljujarvi.
Deeper Dive: If anything, Puljujarvi’s pitch is much more about potential than it is actual production so far in his young career. With a shot percentage of just 5.9% and an expected goal total right in line with his current rate of four tallies on the year, it’s clear that Puljujarvi has plenty of seasoning to do when it comes to rounding out his overall game. The winger could have really benefited for a year or two down in the AHL, rather than flip-flop between the leagues as he did in his first two seasons.
Could Puljujarvi round into form with a new club? It certainly seems like he has the potential to rebound. However, you have to be a bit concerned with how Puljujarvi has fared when even earning a promotion up to a line with Connor McDavid and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.
In 25 minutes of 5v5 TOI together, that line has an expected goal total of 1.09 — and an expected goals against of 4.29. Yikes.
What will it cost?
The Oilers would likely want to a fellow young prospect in a deal for Puljujarvi, perhaps someone like Ryan Donato or some blue-line talent down in Providence. At this point though, Boston would have to take a deep look to see if Puljujarvi is worth the risk.
Mark Stone
Height: 6-foot-4
Weight: 219 lbs
Age: 26
Current Team: Ottawa Senators
Contract Status: $7.35 million AAV / Unrestricted free agent this offseason
Stats: 50 games played, 22 goals, 28 assists
Is he a fit?
Just about every team in the NHL would love to add a guy like Stone, who’s one of the best two-way players in the league — and on pace for 36 goals and 82 total points this season.
While the rebuilding Senators would love to retain pending UFAs in both Stone and Matt Duchene, Ottawa will likely not be able to keep both — with the club opting to get something in a deal for them if they’re not able to strike a deal.
Stone’s due to get a paid this summer and will likely be viewed as a rental this season in any potential deal, but he is far more than just an upgrade to put a team over the top. He can be a game-changer for teams looking for a deep postseason run. Given how Stone is already earning mentions as a Selke Trophy finalist as a winger, he’d form a devastating addition to a Bruins lineup that already has Patrice Bergeron in tow. It’d take a lot to get him out of Ottawa, but Boston’s top six would be absolutely loaded if Stone came to town.
Deeper Dive: Yep, just take a look at Stone’s goals above replacement. When you add in how good he is away from the puck and out of the offensive zone, his numbers are off the chart — with his 15.20 GAR higher than anyone else on the Bruins roster.
Stone has especially been very productive at even strength and 5v5 play, with only three of his 22 goals this season coming off the man advantage. That’s a positive sign for the Bruins, who really need a dependable skater not named Bergeron, Marchand, Pastrnak or Krejci to produce in even-strength situations.
However, you can also make the case that Stone has been a bit lucky with his offensive production this season, boasting an individual expected goal total of 14.62 — eight fewer than his actual goal total. Still, even if he’s performing beyond expectations form an offensive standpoint, Stone is a huge addition for any club thanks to his two-way game.
What will it cost?
Even if he’s a rental, you’d have to think Ottawa will hold out for a first rounder and a blue-chip prospect or two in return for a player like Stone. If he’s available, the Senators will certainly get that, and likely more.
Ryan Dzingel
Height: 6-foot-0
Weight: 190 lbs
Age: 26
Current Team: Ottawa Senators
Contract Status: $1.8 million AAV / Unrestricted free agent this offseason
Stats: 48 games played, 20 goals, 18 assists
Is he a fit? Another Senator likely on his way out due to a big payday on tap this summer, Dzingel picked an awfully good time for his breakout season. After setting a career high with 41 points over 79 games last season, Dzingel is currently on pace to bury 33 goals and post 63 points over 80 games in the 2018-19 campaign.
At this point, Dzingel’s value may never be higher — and it makes sense for the Senators to get something for the winger before he departs in free agency. Dzingel is a versatile forward, capable of playing on both the wing and at center. If he’s up for grabs, look for plenty of teams, including the Bruins, to be interested.
Deeper Dive: So far, Dzingel has far exceeded expectations when looking at his career progression, although he has lucked out quite a bit in terms of his scoring this season — posting an individual expected goals calculation of 11.1, nine less than the 20 goals he actually has.
Still, Dzingel shoots much closer than the league average when it comes to a shot distance at 26.6, with just four of his goals coming outside of the slot. He might be a bit lucky, but he’s putting himself in good position to continue to rack up points down the stretch.
In terms of goals above replacement, Dzingel would be in the middle of the pack among Bruins forwards, but his value at 5v5 play would make him a valuable piece for the B’s.
Currently, Dzingel’s GAR at even strength is 3.200, which would be good for fourth on Boston’s forward corps — even ahead of Marchand. A lot of that has to do with the fact that just seven of Dzingel’s 38 points this season have come on the power play.
What will it cost?
If the Senators are somehow able to hold onto guys like Stone and Duchene, Dzingel’s trade value will likely skyrocket. However, if the Senators are able to get strong returns for some of their top forwards and still want to part ways with Dzingel, you’d have to think that they could still find a deal involving a prospect and a couple of draft picks.
Charlie Coyle
Height: 6-foot-3
Weight: 220 lbs
Age: 26
Current Team: Minnesota Wild
Contract Status: $3.2 million AAV / Signed through 2020 season
Stats: 50 games played, 9 goals, 17 assists
Is he a fit? The Weymouth native and BU product has been tied to the Bruins for the last couple of months, with the big pivot standing as a natural fit for Boston’s vacant spot at third-line center. The Wild might currently be in the playoff picture, but given the long-term potential of this current group of players, you’d have to wonder if Minnesota opts for a bit of a reset — as evidenced by the team’s trade of Nino Niederreiter last week.
Coyle is a bit of an odd spot right now, earning top-line minutes on a group with Eric Staal and Jordan Greenway, but also playing out of his natural position at center. With the addition of Victor Rask as part of the Niederreiter deal, Coyle has largely been playing on the wing — something that Coyle has mentioned as being a bit of an adjustment.
“Anything can be frustrating if I let it,” Coyle told the Twin Cities Pioneer Press. “We got a good player in Rask, and think he’s going to fit nicely. He’s a good player down that middle. As far as me going back to wing, I think what I do best is getting in on the forecheck and winning wall battles. That’s going to be big for our line. That’s what I’m trying to do.”
While Coyle’s viability is a top-six center might be a bit uneven, he’d certainly make for a great solution for a contender looking to shore up some secondary scoring on its third line.
Deeper Dive: Coyle’s expected goals for (10.38) is largely in line with his actual scoring output of nine, but the center has the potential to a big addition at 5v5, with Coyle often generating offense thanks to an average shot distance of 25 feet while creating 10 rebounds along the way.
When looking at his goals above replacement, Coyle is no slouch — with his 6.50 GAR ranking him fourth among all Bruins forwards, while his 5.100 GAR at even strength is tied with Krejci, one of the few B’s skaters that has been better than advertised away from the man advantage.
He may not have the ceiling of a center like Schenn, but Coyle has been a bit better than his numbers indicate in terms of serving as an effective pivot that isn’t a liability in any three zones.
What will it cost?
He might not be as costly as Schenn, but you’d have to think that the Wild will hold out for a good deal when it comes to Coyle, who is under contract for another season with a great AAV of $3.2 million. Considering the fact that Minnesota very well could just hold onto Coyle, it seems unlikely that the club will pull the trigger on a trade unless its knocked over by a great offer.
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.@pastrnak96 wasted no time making his presence felt at his first career #NHLAllStar Weekend.
? Re-live his impressive victory in last night's Accuracy Shooting competition: pic.twitter.com/lH81jT2YlV
— Boston Bruins (@NHLBruins) January 26, 2019
History was made and barriers were broke. It was such an honor to be the first woman to compete in the @nhl All Star Skills Competition last night. I can’t wait to see what the future holds! #NHLAllStar pic.twitter.com/Sc125oBGCx
— Kendall Coyne Schofield (@KendallCoyne) January 26, 2019
