Measuring fullback James Develin's impact on Patriots' surging ground game

After pulling together this story on the Patriots’ recent surge in the running game earlier this week, a BSJ subscriber asked me for the splits when it came to the usage of fullback James Develin. So we ran the numbers, and found a few interesting things.

First, looking at plays where Develin strictly lined up as a blocker in the backfield, over the course of the season (including the two playoff games), the yards per carry with him in there as opposed to not having him in there are exactly the same. In their 18 games, the Patriots have averaged 4.557 yards per carry with him in the backfield as a blocker, and 4.557 yards per carry without him. The numbers have gone up and down over the course of the year, but to have them so even at this stage of the season is pretty remarkable.

At the same time, it’s undeniable Develin has been a big part of the recent running-game renaissance for this team. Against the Chargers, the Patriots averaged 6.4 yards per carry when he was part of a two-back set, and 2.7 yards per carry when he wasn’t out there. The same was true against the Chiefs, and while the splits in the AFC title game aren’t nearly as dramatic (4 yards per carry with him out there vs. 3.9 yards per carry without), it’s worth noting he was on the field consistently in crunch time, including the final drive in overtime, where he helped clear a path for Rex Burkhead to score the game-winner.