In this week’s edition of the NFL Notebook, we bring you a classic Dante Scarnecchia story, offer up a pair of ex-Patriots who could advance through the coaching ranks sooner rather than later, break down how Tom Brady has fared against Kansas City defensive coordinator Bob Sutton over the years, and get some more thoughts from Logan Mankins on playing for Bill Belichick. But first, despite the fact the 2018 Patriots have been working for the better part of the last six months to get to this spot, their legacy is still in the balance heading into Sunday night.
“Our story is still being written, and fortunately, we have an opportunity to write it.” —Brady, 1/4/19
1. That story, which began in the spring, picked up steam in the summer and fall, is now set for a final chapter. The only question is whether the last line will be written Sunday, or in two weeks in Atlanta.
Honestly, the 2018 Patriots have been as compelling a team as I can remember. There have been moments of genuine brilliance — in hindsight, how they managed to pull it all together on the road against the Bears despite injuries to Rob Gronkowski and Sony Michel was impressive, not to mention as well as the home wins over the Chiefs and Chargers. James White, Stephen Gilmore and Trey Flowers have been a flat-out joy to watch this year. From the start of the summer workouts to their playoff performance, that group has played at a consistently high level while simultaneously lifting their teammates.
But they’ve also been bafflingly inconsistent at times, especially on the road — a potential Achilles’ heel that ultimately robbed them of home-field advantage and set up this weekend’s AFC title game at Arrowhead. Play-calling, execution, and general sloppiness in key moments have all played a role in the fact that this team has underachieved at times this season, particularly away from home. (It’s still remarkable to think if they had just found a way to knock Kenyan Drake out of bounds as he tip-toed down the sideline in Miami, the AFC title game would have been in Foxborough and not at Arrowhead.) Despite all that, they’re on the cusp of their eighth straight AFC title game, a remarkable feat considering Patrick Mahomes was still in high school when that streak started.
But the truth of the matter is that even after six months, in a region where it’s still Super Bowl or bust, the legacy of the 2018 Patriots still remains in question. On Sunday, they have a chance to bolster their championship credentials by crafting a signature playoff win on the road, which would silence their critics (#BetAgainstUs) and put them in line for a sixth Super Bowl title. Despite the drama the franchise has endured over the last year, vindication remains possible … and given the past playoff struggles of the Chiefs at home, at times, it’s looked inevitable.
So how does the story end? Another memorable final chapter, a la 2014 and 2016? Or a near miss, followed by (almost certainly) another offseason of uncertainty? We’ll know more come Sunday night. But if history is any indication, the one thing we know for sure is that it won’t boring.
2. Miguel had a note on this earlier in the week, but it’s remarkable the Patriots have four veterans who have been in every AFC championship game since 2011: Devin McCourty, Stephen Gostkowski, Matthew Slater and Brady. For McCourty and Slater, they both acknowledged this week just how special the achievement really is, with Slater saying the bond that’s been built in Foxborough the last several years is a large reason for their success.
“I tell you, we’ve been extremely blessed to be in the situation that we’ve been in over the last eight years,” Slater said. “There’s so many things that really factor in when you talk about being able to have this kind of success but I think you hit on it. The brotherhood is a big part of it. I think what I’ve found is when you take the time to invest in people and what makes them tick, take the time to try to go out of your way to show them love and show them that you care about them beyond the game of football, it creates something special in the locker room. And I think we have a lot of men in this locker room that understand that.”
“You don’t know if this will happen every year — and it kind of seems crazy because we say it every time we get this opportunity, but it’s a special thing to be able to play in this game,” McCourty said. “Especially because it’s the one game back in April that every team wants to be playing in. Every team in the AFC wants to be in this game and it comes down to us and Kansas City. Bill said it all week, ‘We won’t regret putting a lot into this.’”
3. I’ve written in the past about how a lot of these high-profile games are won or lost in the week leading up to the game in practice — specifically, it can come down to the work of the scout team, which is charged with giving the starters as good a look as possible over the course of the week. Frequently, the scout team can often help provide the difference in what to anticipate come game-time. (After the 2003 AFC title game, backup quarterback Damon Huard was given a game ball for the job he did mimicking Peyton Manning that week in practice. The scout teamers were also credited with prepping the offense in the days leading up to Super Bowl XLIX.) With the understanding the New England secondary faces a massive test this week with the speedy Kansas City offense, I asked Devin McCourty about the job that group has done this year.
“I think when you see us go out there and play well, it’s probably because we had good moments in practice,” he said. “But sometimes, it’s because we had bad moments because the scout team gave us a good look to go back there and review and get ready for the game.
“You get to this time of the year (and) every man in that locker room counts. Every man has a role on the team. And that’s why when you win, every guy’s excited, every guy has fun. I don’t care if you played every snap or if you played one or if you didn’t play on Sunday. Every guy embraces that and enjoys that moment because you’re truly a part of it.”
4. Lots of talk this week about weather games, and while the Patriots-Chiefs showdown isn’t going to be as cold as we thought it might be, one thing I found this week in my research was that there’s still something to be said for being an all-weather team. Recent history says those clubs have fared much better in the postseason than southern or dome teams. The last dome team to win it all was the 2009 Saints, who were lucky enough to either stay indoors or down south on their road to a title. There were the 2006 Colts. And before that, the last Southern-based team to win it all? The 2002 Bucs. In all, the last 18 playoff seasons, outdoor/cold-weather teams won 15 Super Bowls. The one team who could break that trend this year? The Saints, who will host the NFC championship game, and with the Super Bowl set for Atlanta, could finish off their season without an outdoor game. (In fact, the Saints could set a new record when it comes to climate-controlled comfort — they could have just one game this year where it’s 40 degrees or colder. Their coldest game was Nov. 11 against the Bengals in Cincinnati.) Compare that to the Patriots and Rams, two true all-weather teams (the Chiefs have yet. If it gets cold enough in Kansas City this weekend, they’ll be the only two clubs this year who have played in games 85 degrees or more and 25 degrees or less (Chiefs haven't done either yet).
5. In big games, we’ll usually make a lot about Brady’s stat line against a specific defensive coordinator, but there wasn’t a lot of talk (at least from a New England perspective) about Kansas City defensive coordinator Bob Sutton, a guy who has been occasionally under fire for the performance of the Chiefs this season. All in all, Brady has done (relatively) well against Sutton over the course of his career: he’s 5-3 in games he’s started against teams where Sutton is the opposing DC, and is 155-for-255 (61 percent) with 1,850 passing yards, 10 touchdowns, five INTs and 12 sacks. As opposing DCs, go, not bad. It’s not quite Jack Del Rio, but not Mike Pettine either. One thing that should encourage New England fans? Brady has better per game numbers against Sutton’s D when it comes to the playoffs. In the two contests (small sample size, I know, but hear me out), Brady is 2-0, 50-for-76 (67 percent) for 514 yards, four touchdowns, no interceptions and only one sack. Not bad. As expected, Brady was complimentary of Sutton this week, saying he’s a “hell of a coordinator,” while Sutton returned the nice words.
“I don’t think you really ever are going to trick him in the sense that you can completely fool him,” Sutton said. “You might get lucky once in a while, but I don’t think you can go in planning on that. I think what you try to do is what we always say is try like the dickens not to give him the answers to the test before the ball’s snapped. You try, but this guy, like I said, he’s seen every defense. He has the answers to the test. He knows what the coverages are and he understands that. He can process so fast. That makes him an extremely difficult guy to defend."
6. More from Logan Mankins after our conversation about the Patriots offensive line earlier in the week:
a. In many ways, you set the standard for mental and physical toughness when you were here in New England. What’s your take on the toughness level of this team? “I don’t know how mentally tough this team is quite yet, but it’s easy to get into that mindset as a player because you just get into the season and it's completely rigid. All you do is focus on football. Bill does such a good job of keeping the players focused, you just forget about everything else that’s going on in the outside world. At least that was the case with me. You’re just wired into football. You don’t think of the season being over, and the bumps and bruises are just wrapped into one thing. You don’t even think about the season being over until it’s over. That was one of the reasons I enjoyed playing there — they just focus on one thing: football.”
b. Looking back now, what sort of impact did Dante Scarnecchia have on your carer? “Dante was great — I learned so much from him where I was there. I can’t give him enough credit for my career. He’s been so influential for a big group of New England offensive linemen. I know not everyone liked him, but to all the guys who football was important to, they loved him. He was a great guy to play for and be around, and I was very lucky to have him as a coach.”
c. There was a lot of talk this past offseason about how playing in New England wasn’t for everyone. What was your take on those stories? “I don’t think it’s for everyone. I mean, I loved it — I loved the structure and the work and going to the stadium every day knowing exactly what’s expected of you. There’s no wavering at all because every day is the same. That’s just how I thought. A lot of guys aren’t wired like that. They can’t take the criticism. There are tough days. But if you care about winning — I mean, really care about winning — it’s where you should want to be.”
7. As another follow-up to the Friday story on the offensive line, I asked Rich Ohrnberger for his favorite Scarnecchia story: “We go to rookie minicamp — this is Day One. It’s just rookies and some select veterans. Dante is putting us through our paces, and we’re working on snapping the ball to the quarterback — he’s playing quarterback receiving the snaps. My first snap, I misfire, and turn around to see what happened and pick up the ball. He shoves me in my chest plate and he’s immediately inside my face mask. ‘WHAT ARE YOU DOING? IF THAT’S A GAME AGAINST THE RAVENS, WHY WOULD YOU TURN AROUND TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS? YOU’RE GOING TO GET YOUR QUARTERBACK KILLED.’ He was doing chin-ups on my facemask, and just took the ball and fired it into my belly and told me to do it again. It was baptism by fire, this tongue-lashing I got from this tiny man who I came respect immensely. You work your tail off for the guy, because you love him, and you want to make him proud by playing the best ball you can. But that was a rough way to start.”
8. This stretch is not only a key time for coordinators who are becoming head coaches, but assistant coaches who could be positioning themselves for bigger things down the road. Two former New England defenders who probably won’t be climbing the coaching ladder this year but could be down the road include Steve Gregory and Tyrone McKenzie. Gregory, a well-regarded defensive back who spent the 2012 and 2013 seasons with the Patriots, is part of Matt Patricia’s staff in Detroit as a defensive assistant. Meanwhile, McKenzie is already at his second coaching stop as the linebackers coach under Mike Vrabel in Tennessee. Again, I wouldn’t expect these guys to become coordinators quite yet, but both are two guys worth keeping an eye on moving forward.
9. Three numbers that caught our eye this week:
a. 2 - Dont’a Hightower is one of two players in NFL history with multiple national titles and Super Bowl titles. Russell Maryland is the other. (Maryland won two with Miami as a collegian and three with Dallas in the NFL.)
b. 228 - Brady has thrown an NFL-record 228 consecutive postseason passes without an interception, dating back to Super Bowl LI.
c. 997 - With 3 receiving yards, Rob Gronkowski (997) will become the first tight end in NFL history with 1,000 receiving yards in the playoffs.
10. My picks for the week? I’ll go New England and Los Angeles. They were the two teams I picked to make the Super Bowl at the start of the year, and in the name of consistency, that's who I'm sticking with. Enjoy the games, everyone.