McAdam: Another big payday coming for Mookie Betts in arbitration

For the last few years, the Red Sox have attempted to sign Mookie Betts to a long-term contract extension. Every time, Betts and his representatives have politely declined the Sox' entreaties.

Instead, Betts has elected to go year-by-year through baseball's salary arbitration process. It's a path that has paid off handsomely, and beginning Friday, will undoubtedly do so again.

Last winter, the Sox filed at $7.5 million while Betts requested a figure of $10.5 million. Under a policy that has become standard f0r the Red Sox in all of their arbitration cases ("file-and-trial'' -- the team won't negotiate with players further once salary filings are exchanged, and instead will prepare for a hearing in front of a panel of three arbiters), the Sox went to arbitration, where they lost.

(Under baseball rules, either the team's figure or the player's is chosen; no middle ground is permissible).

On Friday, as teams throughout baseball exchange arbitration figures, Betts could well become the first player to request a one-season salary in excess of $20 million. MLBTradeRumors.com, which has predicted arbitration figures with great accuracy, projects Betts to be awarded a salary of $18.7 million, but it's virtually a given that a player would ask for more than the expected "settle'' point.

(Josh Donaldson holds the record for highest single-season salary for an arbitration-eligible player at $23 million in 2018, but that was the result of a settlement between Donaldson and his then-employers, the Toronto Blue Jays, before salary figures were officially exchanged. Similarly, Bryce Harper was paid $21.65 million by the Washington Nationals for 2018, but that, too, was agreed upon ahead of time).

Regardless of the numbers, Betts will have a formidable case to present later this month or early next. He was voted AL MVP in November after a season in which he led all of baseball in runs scored (129), batting average (346) and slugging percentage (.640). He also had a .438 on-base percentage, hit 32 homers, won both a Gold Glove and Silver Slugger and saved 19 defensive runs in the outfield.

His 10.9 WAR was the highest for a Red Sox player since Carl Yastrzemski's legendary Triple Crown season of 1967.

If Betts sets a record this winter, it's frightening to think what he might command a year from now during his final year of arbitration-eligibility. Should Betts again have the kind of season he enjoyed in 2018, he could well blow past this year's figures and go for $30 million -- or more -- annually.

Assuming he remains healthy, the strategy chosen by Betts and his representatives has, quite literally, paid off. He'll make upwards of $30 million for 2018-2019 combined and his 2020 salary could well push that total to $60 million over a three-year span.

(It's unknown what the last offer presented by the Red Sox was worth -- other than it included, naturally, some buyout of his free agent seasons and the total was a nine-figure amount -- but it's doubtful Betts would have topped $60 million in his final three years with the Sox as part of any extension.)

Then, things get really interesting as Betts qualifies for free agency after the 2020 season.

Baseball sources confirmed earlier this offseason that part of the strategy of going year-to-year was to wait and see what sort of megadeals were signed by Harper and fellow free agent Manny Machado.

Last fall, the expectation was that both players would command long-term deals worth $300 million or more. To date, it would seem that each could fall short, although neither player seems in a rush to sign.

And if Harper and Machado, both 26, can't garner that sort of commitment, what does that say about the chances for Betts, who will be two years older when it comes time for his crack at free agency?

Then again, Betts hasn't been plagued by the inconsistency shown by Harper, nor been saddled with questions about effort or dirty play, as Machado has.

As the free agent market undergoes an evolution and teams recoil at the thought of giving out eight- and 10-year contracts, two years can be a lifetime. Who knows what the labor picture will be like in 46 months?

But for now, Betts needn't worry. Following a plan in which he has astutely bet on himself, he continues to win big, one year at a time.