Across the NBA, free agency in the summer of 2019 is expected to be even more of a free for all than usual. Not only are there going to be a number of superstars (Kevin Durant, Kawhi Leonard, Jimmy Butler) on the open market with uncertainty about their futures, but the pure volume of free agents will also be higher than ever. Nearly half of the players who signed contracts last summer opted for short-term deals in anticipation of a market that is expected to be flush with cash this summer as the salary cap rises and bloated deals come off the books.
The Celtics won’t be one of those teams with significant cap room. They already have $67 million in salary commitments, and that’s even before including Kyrie Irving’s projected max contract or Al Horford's $30 million player option. No matter what route Danny Ainge decides to take this offseason, the Celtics won’t have the ability to add to their roster from the open market beyond the taxpayer mid-level exception and minimum contracts. That fact makes the Celtics’ own free agents more important than ever if the team wants to a build on a contending core in 2019. Boston won’t have the ability to keep their entire roster intact, but as we pass the halfway point of the regular season, it’s a good time to check in on the stock of all these free agents-to-be and their projected price tags to get a better sense of the team’s planning as we approach the trade deadline.
Unrestricted free agents
Marcus Morris
Age: 29
Remaining contract: One year, $5.4 million (Bird Rights)
2018-19 stats: 15.4 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 1.4 apg
Overview: The veteran forward is in the midst of a career year while playing one of the most sought-after positions on the open market (stretch forward). His defense has dropped off a little bit (the Celtics play better D when he’s off the floor) due to reduced quickness, but he has more than made up for it with his outside shooting (43 percent from 3) and defensive rebounding (highest rebounding rate of career). His insertion into the starting five helped the C’s get back on track this year, and he has rightfully entered the All-Star conversation.
Potential next contract: The market is going to be full of stretch 4s, but Morris has placed himself just below the top tier of talent out there, alongside the likes of Thaddeus Young and Nikola Mirotic, while just below Tobias Harris. He’s on track to at least
triple his salary ($15 million per year) if he continues this pace for the second half of the season. Whether or not a team wants to gamble on handing the aging forward a long-term deal for that type of money remains to be seen, but the Celtics are going to have to fend off a competitive market to retain him.
Stock: Way up
Restricted free agents
Terry Rozier
Age: 24
Contract situation: One year remaining at $3.05 million (RFA in 2019)
2018-19 stats: 8.8 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 2.8 apg
Overview: After a breakout postseason, it’s easy to see that Rozier has regressed in his fourth season. His shot selection has been poor, the Celtics are playing better on both ends when he’s off the floor and there has not been growth in other areas of his game (free throw rate, rebounding, etc.) It’s evident he can do more when handed a bigger role, but it’s not clear whether he will be much better than a top-20 starting point guard in the league right now given the depth at the position.
Potential next contract: The 24-year-old turned down a similar extension to what Marcus Smart ultimately signed for last offseason, and while it’s safe to say that he won’t dip much lower than that next summer, the fact that he is a restricted free agent could be a challenge in a very crowded market for guards. The Celtics will not let him walk away with no compensation since he could be useful as a potential sign-and-trade for Anthony Davis and they have no direct means to replace him. Smart is looking like the more valuable piece to this team over the long-term, so it’s hard to see the C’s picking Rozier over him over the long term, unless Smart is needed in a trade. For now, Rozier’s range would be somewhere in the $12-15 million range per year and could fall if his slow season continues.
Stock: Trending down
Daniel Theis
Age: 26
Contract situation: One year remaining at $1.4 million. Early Bird Rights
2018-19 stats: 6.8 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 1.1 apg
Overview: It’s been a rollercoaster ride of a season for the German, who has battled injuries for the second straight year. After a strong start to the year (in which he was playing fewer minutes than he should have), Theis has struggled in a bigger role off the bench over the past couple of weeks, as Aron Baynes (broken hand) and Al Horford (minutes limit) absences have created a hole at center. Theis’ rebounding is down and he’s struggling to play defense without fouling (highest foul rate on the team) as officials have given him the rookie treatment in his second NBA season. His 3-point shooting (42 percent) has been a nice surprise though, and his overall offensive production has increased in limited minutes.
Potential next contract: This is one of the more uncertain situations for the future and a lot will depend on Theis’ shooting. If he can sustain his strong perimeter start, it may be a challenge for the Celtics to retain him without dipping into their mid-level exception. Boston can offer 175 percent of his current deal in their next offer (via early Bird Rights) but a team surpassing that offer if Theis remains solid at the reserve center spot remains a smart bet. The next month with Baynes out will go a long way toward determining his value. A $5 million salary per year seems like a fair guess for now, and that would probably be too pricey for Boston with Robert Williams waiting for an opportunity.
Stock: Slightly up
Player Options
Al Horford
Age: 32
Contract situation: Player option at $30.1 million for 2019-20
2018-19 stats: 12.2 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 3.7 apg
Overview: He will opt in for that money unless the Celtics negotiate some type of sweetheart extension with him, that tack on a couple more years to the deal for a significant annual pay cut. Otherwise, Horford won’t get anything close to $30 million on the open market due to his age and dropoff in production. He’s a valuable piece to this team but is not worthy of a max deal at age 33.
Potential next contract: 3 years/$60 million
Stock: Down
Kyrie Irving
Age: 26
2018-19 stats: 23.1 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 6.6 apg
Contract situation: Player option at $21 million for 2019-20
Overview: Nothing has changed with Irving. He was going to command a max deal before the season started, and he has only strengthened his case with the best all-around season of his career thus far. He’ll be able to demand the terms he wants (whether it’s a short- or long-term contract), and the Celtics will cater to those needs with no viable alternatives.
Potential next contract: Five years at the max
Stock: Up
NBA News and Notes
- In hopes of conveying their draft pick to the Celtics this spring, the Grizzlies made a veteran upgrade to their bench this week by adding Bulls swingman Justin Holiday to the mix in exchange for Wayne Selden, MarShon Brooks and a couple of second-round picks. The good news for Boston? This isn’t a trade that should move the needle much. Holiday is a solid 3-point shooter but he’s not an efficient player overall and his shooting has fallen off in a big way since November. Memphis has lost four straight overall.
- LeBron James will miss at least three more games with a groin strain, and it’s putting the Lakers comfortable spot in the playoff picture into some flux. LA has lost three straight and now sit at the No. 8 spot, just a couple games ahead of the Kings and Jazz. With Kyle Kuzma also battling a back injury, look out for the Jazz to challenge for that playoff spot the rest of the way.
- Tough blow for the Wizards with veteran forward Markieff Morris being ruled out for the next six weeks with a neck injury. As an expiring contract, he looked like a prime candidate to be dealt by the deadline, but it’s hard to see any team gambling on an injured player making over $8 million this year. Even if they do, the Wizards won’t fetch more than a second round pick for him.
- A little bit surprising to see the honeymoon is over so soon in Philadelphia for Jimmy Butler after Adrian Wojnarowski reported the swingman is challenging Brett Brown already about his role in the offense. This is a potentially volatile situation for that front office given the fact Butler is an unrestricted free agent this summer. He will have suitors elsewhere, so they need to keep him happy in the interim since losing him for nothing would be disastrous for the long-term.