If you're looking for reason to believe in the Patriots, look to the strength of schedule

At the start of every season, there's a lot of debate about the strength of schedule for each team. So now that the 2018 regular season is (almost) in the rearview mirror, how did the Patriots stack up when it came to measuring which teams had the toughest slate this past year?


Short answer to the question? Despite the AFC East narrative, it wasn’t all tomato cans for New England this year. Going into the last week of the regular season, the Patriots’ have a winning percentage of .714 against teams with winning records — the best mark in the AFC, and the third-best in the league, trailing only the Saints (5-1, .833) and Bears (3-1, .750).

Overall, New England, which holds a 5-2 record against teams with winning records, is tied with New Orleans and the Los Angeles Rams for tops in the league when it comes to victories against teams with a winning record. The Patriots have wins over the Vikings, Bears, Chiefs, Colts, and Texans, while the losses have come against the Steelers and Titans, the latter of which was their worst defeat of the year.

When stacked against the teams who remain in the AFC playoff chase using the same metric, the Patriots also compared pretty favorably. The Chargers (4-3) and Titans (4-4) have won four games against teams with winning records, while the Ravens (3-3), Colts (3-3), and Chiefs (3-4) are all a step behind.

Leaguewide, with a week left to go in the regular season, it appears you could make a good case for the Jaguars finishing the year with the toughest schedule. Jacksonville ended up playing the most games against teams with winning records — 10. (That’ll reach 11 by the end of the year, as they have the Texans in this weekend’s regular-season finale.) Jacksonville has a 2-8 mark in those games. The Bills (2-7), Lions (1-7), Raiders (1-7), Giants (2-6), Broncos (3-5), Eagles (3-5), Titans (4-4) and Rams (5-3) have all played at least eight games against teams with winning records. And the Cardinals have lost all seven games they’ve played this year against teams with winning records.

On a similar front, it’s important to note the regular-season picture isn’t fully complete just yet, but this story from Chase Stuart takes a look at the fact Kansas City will likely enter the playoffs 10-0 against non-playoff teams and 2-4 against teams that will have reached the postseason. Does it matter when it comes to the Chiefs’ Super Bowl chances? The truth of the matter is that it can go either way. Stuart says many eventual Super Bowl champs performed poorly against playoff teams during the regular season: the 1980 Raiders, the 1999 Rams, 2005 Steelers, 2007 Giants, 2008 Steelers and 2011 Giants all struggled in the regular season against teams that made the tournament but ended up winning it all in the end.

Viewed through a New England prism, there are two takeaways here: One, the Patriots’ last three Super Bowl appearances have coincided with a good regular-season mark against eventual playoff teams. Last year, New England was 5-2 in the regular season against teams that made the playoffs. In 2016 and 2014, they were 4-1 in similar situations.

And two, while it’s not directly related, the Patriots’ 3-5 road record also has to be included within the context of this conversation. If New England is able to win it all this year, the Patriots will join the 2010 Packers (3-5) as the only Super Bowl champions to finish with a losing record on the road. Four other teams (1979 Steelers, 1997 Broncos, 2006 Colts and 2012 Ravens) finished exactly .500 on the road (4-4).

Regardless of what happens in the playoffs, you certainly can’t deny the fact the 2018 Patriots rose to the challenge better than most when confronted with the iron of their regular-season schedule. Only time will tell if they’ll be able to use that regular-season performance as a springboard to playoff glory.