First of all, before we get going here, I just wanted to take a moment to wish all of you a Merry Christmas to those who observe, and happy holidays to all of our members. Hope you get to spend some quality time with loved ones and recharge a little bit. We here at BSJ are very thankful for your support. If I've said it once I've said it a thousand times and it's 1000 percent true: we couldn't do this without you. And many thanks to those who have purchased gift subscriptions (some multiple). It's a hugely important part of our business.
Enough with the pleasantries ... you're here for the unvarnished truth about your Patriots every single day of the year. Let's goooo...
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Unless you're a total Patriots homer, the headline coming out of Sunday's 24-12 victory against the wretched Bills (at least their offense) was the almost total ineptness of the Patriots' passing game and Tom Brady.
We all know what we saw and, while a viewing of the game film didn't make anyone feel better about it — especially the potentially effective screen pass to James Develin that Brady flat-out quit on, or that on New England's four scoring drives, Brady was a passenger with just six pass attempts (four on the Julian Edelman touchdown drive) in 27 plays — we're not going to belabor the point because we don't write about the obvious here at BSJ. We all watched the game. Everyone knows Brady isn't right, despite what he says, and his health/effectiveness is looming over this franchise heading into the postseason. But we've been there and written that.
We'll get to picking apart Brady in due course, but the other thing that really popped on film in this game was Cordarrelle Patterson. Namely, that besides Brady, I think Patterson is the biggest key to whether or not this offense can do anything in the postseason.
As of this moment — and we'll have to see how he emerges from the left leg injury that knocked him out of the game early in the third quarter — Patterson is the Patriots' most dangerous weapon, and it's not even close.
Sure, Edelman will be the key cog that keeps the chains moving, but when it comes to making game-changing plays, Patterson is about it at the moment. Some will say this is only a result of Josh Gordon's departure but I think that's just given us (and perhaps the coaches) clarity on what should have been apparent all along — Patterson is the only Patriots player capable of taking it to the house on a consistent basis, the kind of explosiveness that will garner the attention of defensive coordinator. Are Sony Michel and James White capable of huge plays? Sure, but they're almost wholly dependent on blocking. Patterson doesn't carry those caveats. He has special speed and athleticism.
There's a difference between being fast and being special. That latter is the kind that takes opponents by surprise, the kind they can't appreciate or comprehend until they see it on the field. Michel is fast, but he never causes an opponent to take a bad angle to the ball. When people attempt to tackle Patterson they come up empty because they've never encountered someone that fast and big who can adjust his body like that.
Look at these plays against the Bills.
Patterson has also come very far in his abilities as a route runner. He should have had a chance at a third-and-4 conversion but Brady reacted and spun out against pressure that wasn't there.
I expect the coaches, partially off of what he showed against the Bills, to incorporate Patterson even more in the postseason (they might keep it largely hidden against the Jets). He needs to be around 15 touches per game for this offense to be successful. Patterson can obviously carry the ball, and his hooks are now adequate. Add in more go's and posts, and they could be cooking with gas.
I mean, if you really needed one big play from the Patriots at this point, what are you dialing up? For me, it's a jet sweep to Patterson — it's not even close — and there is plenty the Patriots can gameplan off that play.
Brady's obviously the biggest worry at this point, but Patterson has become someone to be really excited about and the Patriots might be boom or bust with his production in the postseason.
Here are the positional ratings against the Bills:
Quarterback (1.5 out of 5)
Wasn't even close to being good enough for Brady in this one. Again. All told, had him for four plus plays (all throws to Edelman) and nine minus plays, including half of the interception to Rex Burkhead and half Trent Brown's sack where if Brady wasn't so locked on Edelman, he had both Patterson and Rob Gronkowski as options. ... Look, Brady was under a lot of pressure in this game, but there were plays to be made if he wanted to stand in. ... An early bad sign was the first play of the game where Brady faced pressure but delivered a ball behind Edelman. ... Late in the first quarter, Josh McDaniels had a perfect Cover 2 beater called to either Edelman across the middle or Gronkowski on a corner route, but Brady quickly threw incomplete to White, who was covered.
The most egregious error was Brady just giving up on a screen pass to James Develin that had the potential to be a huge play if Brady (who wasn't under duress) just held the ball for one more beat.
And then there was the third-down dump off to White that understandably sent Chris Hogan, who was open at the sticks, away frustrated and to pout on the bench.
These were just a few of the miscues that we'd like to say have been uncharacteristic of Brady, but they have been this season, especially of late. Since the touchdown to Gronkowski in the first half of the Miami game, Brady is 49 of 84 (58.3 percent) for 551 yards, two touchdowns, three interceptions (71.08 passer rating). Take out the Hogan uncovered touchdown against the Steelers and his passer rating has been 63.73. Just look at his spray chart from this game to see the state of the passing offense: Brady completed five passes at or behind the line of scrimmage and just three beyond 5 yards. 
The other concerning aspect in all of this is that teams seem to reading from a book that says, "Thall Shall Not Be Afraid to Blitz Brady." The Dolphins blitzed Brady on 26.5 percent of snaps. The Steelers went after him on the first four plays to speed him up. The Bills blitzed on 44.44 percent of snaps. Teams see on film that Brady is not reacting well to pressure and doesn't want to be hit. Blood will be in the water until Brady makes them pay like he used to.
Running backs (3.5 out of 5)
Would have been much higher without Burkhead's interception and fumble. Everyone ran the ball well thanks to the gaping holes opened by the line, tight ends and receivers. Michel continues to make strides but, no, I wasn't overly wowed by his performance outside the four big broken tackles he had. ... I was just as impressed with Burkhead gaining a total of 11 yards on four carries where he was met at or behind the line. That's why statistics never tell the tale of a player's performance in a game, at least to me.
Receivers (3 out of 5)
Edelman (outside of his hold) and Patterson were just complete beasts in everything they did. Edelman is back to running the passing game and Patterson, as we already covered, is just special with the ball in his hands. It's been a long, strange trip with him, but it seems to be finally paying off. ... Gronkowski had another poor game along the same lines as the Vikings with a drop for a pick and five more poor plays (3.5 run stuffs allowed). Dwayne Allen wasn't a whole lot better.
Offensive line (3.5 out of 5)
[table id=216 /]
The good news is David Andrews, Shaq Mason and Marcus Cannon (off his worst-ever game) were largely stellar in this game and most of the run game went through them. The bad news is Brown had another rough outing (Jerry Hughes and his quickness were too much) and Joe Thuney joined him as they combined to allow seven of the 11 QB pressures and three of the 11 stuffed runs. In order of effectiveness: Andrews, Mason, Cannon ... Brown and Thuney tied with eight minus plays each).
DEFENSE
[table id=217 /]
Defensive line (5 out of 5)
Only counted three miscues for this whole group — and they were fairly minor — so a job very well done. Trey Flowers was far and away the most impactful player (nine). Flowers and Deatrich Wise, who started and played his most snaps since Week 5, were basically the whole pass rush with nine of the 14 total QB pressures. ... Probably the biggest breaking news is that none of the interior players had a minus play, and that's great news for Malcom Brown and Danny Shelton. Their technique was so much better two-gapping that it's obvious the coaches have been on them. Lawrence Guy was his usual standout self and did a great job of not staying blocked. The new guy, Ufomba Kamalu, had a couple nice plays in his 14 snaps but it's pretty obvious he's limited to being a tough physical matchup.
Linebackers (4 out of 5)
Solid if unspectacular outing for the trio of Elandon Roberts, Dont'a Hightower and Kyle Van Noy — only two plus plays each. Roberts and Hightower each were a bit sloppy in their zone drops.
Secondary (3.5 out of 5)
If it wasn't for the three turnovers this might have been a little worse in the grade department as it seemed like Stephon Gilmore went through the motions in this one, as he is prone to doing a few times a year. ... Not exactly a challenging game for the defense and the secondary in particular. Had the Bills' offense for 12 unforced errors, including seven from Josh Allen. ... Before Jason McCourty stripped Jason Croom, he was responsible for the 24-yard reception because Patrick Chung took his player in jet sweep motion and passed off Croom to McCourty. ... The Bills should have been called for pass interference on their touchdown as Robert Foster intentionally clipped McCourty. Still, J.C. Jackson should be a little more heads up on the play. ... Jonathan Jones had a rough outing.
THREE UP
Trey Flowers: Seemed to be everywhere as he owned the Bills' offensive line and harassed Allen all game long.
Right side of offensive line: Those guys, including Andrews, did most of the heavy lifting in the run game and only allowed three QB pressures.
Cordarrelle Patterson: He was the playmaker for the Patriots in the first half before his injury, and that needs to continue.
THREE DOWN
Trent Brown/Joe Thuney: Almost off the negative plays on the offensive line came from those two players. They allowed 64 percent of the pressure on Brady.
Tom Brady: On some plays, he didn't even give the Patriots a chance. Haven't seen that before.
Rob Gronkowski: Had a drop for an interception, a holding penalty and did not shine in run blocking.