In this week’s edition of the NFL Notebook, we look at a record that will (likely) be broken against the Patriots later this month, examine Tom Brady’s season when stacked against other 41-year-old QBs, break down the least productive offensive lineups New England has put on the field this year, and peek ahead to the Patriots’ backup quarterback situation come 2019. But first, we try and get a sense of what the rest of the league thinks of New England’s two-game December swoon as they try and ascertain what to make of the 2018 Patriots.
1. Talking to a handful of people around the league this week, and while they are fascinated by what is playing out in Foxborough — and wondering if the Patriots are suddenly more vulnerable when it comes to the stretch drive and postseason — none of them wanted to put dirt on New England’s Super Bowl chances just yet. The belief? Yes, they might be more vulnerable, but Bill Belichick and the Patriots have built up too much currency around the league for folks to declare them dead at this point. “I think as long as they have a run game, they'll be fine,” said one opposing personnel man. The consensus is that there’s too much talent on both sides of the ball and the brain power is too great among the coaching staff to see them as a one-and-done type in the postseason, with some pointing to the fact the Patriots remain a safe bet at home against anyone in the AFC and others noting the fact they might be the healthiest team in the league at this point on the calendar. Ultimately, while a lot will become clearer this weekend — especially if the Eagles do New England a solid and upend the Texans — it seems evident that no one in the NFL is writing off the Patriots just yet.
2. Greg hit on an excellent point in his column here on the lineup the Patriots should have on the field going forward. It’s one that emphasizes the speed of likes of James White, Phillip Dorsett, Julian Edelman and Chris Hogan, identifying that personnel grouping as the most successful New England has had this year in terms of best per-yard average (among those used 10 times or more) at a 9.09 yards per play clip. That got us to thinking: What has been the Patriots’ least successful personnel grouping of the year on offense? Using the same parameters — and understand all stats have to be put in some sort of game context — here are the three least productive personnel groupings, per totals from the NFL’s GSIS program:
10 plays - 9 pass, 1 rush
Average yards per play - 2.1
Tom Brady, James White, Chris Hogan, Josh Gordon, Julian Edelman, Dwayne Allen, LaAdrian Waddle, Marcus Cannon, Joe Thuney, David Andrews, Ted Karras
14 plays - 2 pass, 12 rush
Average yards per play - 3.07
Tom Brady, Sony Michel, James Develin, Phillip Dorsett, Chris Hogan, Rob Gronkowski, Trent Brown, Marcus Cannon, Joe Thuney, Shaq Mason, David Andrews
12 plays - 2 pass, 10 rush
Average yards per play - 4.42
Tom Brady, Sony Michel, James Develin, Phillip Dorsett, Julian Edelman, Rob Gronkowski, Trent Brown, Marcus Cannon, Joe Thuney, Shaq Mason, David Andrews
3. This weekend, Josh Allen will become one of the youngest quarterbacks to ever face-off against Tom Brady. Allen will be 22 years and 216 days old when Buffalo takes the field Sunday at Gillette — if you want another way to look at it, he was five years old when Brady and the Patriots beat the Rams in Super Bowl XXXVI. "To play at the level that he’s played at through his span and his career and to still be going at that age…” Allen said this week. "He was a big part in my development, watching quarterbacks and who I wanted to be.” While Allen isn’t quite the youngest quarterback to face Belichick (Deshaun Watson was 22 years and 10 days when he first faced New England in 2017), New York’s Sam Darnold will set a new mark regular-season finale on Dec. 30. Darnold was born on June 5, 1997, which will make him 21 years and 207 days old when the Patriots and Jets meet later this month. (For the record, he was four years old when Brady won his first ring.) According to the Elias Sports Bureau, if Darnold ends up squaring off against Brady, it’ll mark the largest age gap (19 years, 306 days) between two starting quarterbacks facing one another since the 1970 merger.
