The case for more Daniel Theis for the Celtics

For a contending team like the Celtics that will be stuck above the salary cap for the foreseeable future, diamond-in-the-rough signings are a crucial element to team building. Boston’s front office is not going to be able to pay market value for most free agents so they need to find the guys who are willing to take less to play for a potential champion or simply add the guy that no one else in the league has on their radar.

Daniel Theis was the latter for the Celtics when they inked him to a two-year deal for the league minimum in the summer of 2017. His level of production compared to his salary made him one of the biggest steals of the offseason and while the focus on missing Celtics last postseason was on Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward, Theis left a pretty big hole in the frontcourt depth chart as well when he went down for the year with a torn meniscus.

After bouncing back from a meniscus tear and a scare with a torn plantar fascia that healed ahead of schedule last month, Theis has been a good soldier while spending most games watching from the sidelines. He was a DNP-CD in two of Boston’s last five games and averaged just 11 minutes per game in the month of November before injuries opened the door for a bigger role for him on Saturday night against the Bulls.

The 26-year-old made the most of that opportunity, posting career-highs almost across the board (points, assists, blocks, minutes) in the historic beatdown of the Bulls. Theis’ plus/minus (plus-50) ranked among the top-five individual game numbers in NBA history.

While it’s important not to overreact to one performance against one of the worst teams in the NBA, positive production from Theis has been far from an isolated incident this season.

In fact, the Celtics are outscoring opponents by an average of 26.3 points per 100 possessions in the 199 minutes he’s been on the floor this year. That’s easily the best number on the Celtics roster.

Still, it’s been hard for Brad Stevens to find regular minutes for the center in the wake of his new adjustment to the starting lineup with Marcus Morris starting at the 4 and Al Horford starting at the 5. Aron Baynes and Daniel Theis can’t play together off the bench against most teams and this fact forces Stevens to pick one or the other for stints on each night.

The fact remains that both guys deserve a chance to play 15-plus minutes per game right now, so something is going to need to change in order for Stevens to accomplish that when Baynes and Horford return to the lineup.

The easier route for the Celtics to achieve this is a simple switch. Cutting Baynes minutes a little bit is one option, but the better choice may be to simply play Horford less and play the All-Star at the power forward spot more. Horford can start and end games at center with the new starting five but the team should spare the wear and tear on his body in the paint with Theis and Baynes at center throughout the middle portions of both halves.

The truth is Horford should have his minutes cut anyway now due to his lingering knee issue that cropped up again over the weekend. He’s still averaging 30 minutes per game right now in his 12th NBA season and that just isn’t necessary on a team that is this deep. It’s understandable why Stevens leaned on him so much early in the year due to injuries and an inability to find consistency within the offense. Horford gives Boston the kind of spacing that Baynes and Theis can’t with his 3-point shot.

However, now that the C’s have built chemistry across their offensive units with and without Horford, his presence isn’t as pivotal to any group succeeding. Instead, long-term health should be the focus for him and the team right now and the presence of Theis (who is a perfect rim-runner for the likes of Kyrie Irving and Marcus Smart in the pick-and-roll with 78 percent shooting at the rim) will unlock another aspect of Boston’s offense and give him some additional reps. His mobility on defense and solid 3-point shot (6-of-15 from deep on year) gives Stevens the type of two-way play that Stevens craves in his bigs.

Managing Theis now is a tricky endeavor from a long-term perspective. He will be a restricted free agent after the season but the Celtics will only have early Bird Rights, so they won’t be able to match any sizable offer sheets that go above his qualifying offer unless they dip into their mid-level exception.

The conundrum that the Celtics face on handling the future of Theis is fascinating. On the one hand, keeping Theis involved in the rotation now and making him feel like he’s getting ample opportunities will seemingly only increase the odds that he wants to stay in Boston for the long haul at a team-friendly price.

However, if he plays a lot more now, the odds he gets more suitors should only increase thanks to added production. Stevens won’t be thinking about that at all when he handles the 6-foot-9 center’s minutes but you can bet the front office hopes that other general managers see a guy that’s capable of being a starting center in this league with a bigger role.

The fact remains that if the Celtics fail in their quest to land Anthony Davis in the next season or two, Theis is young enough where it’s fair to wonder whether he will be the starting center for this team a few years down the road. Baynes (age 32) doesn’t have too many years left. Horford’s value should remain strong for at least a couple more years but it’s fair to wonder how much punishment his body can take as a starting 5 as he reaches his mid-30s. The Celtics will probably need a cheap option to put in the middle (if they don’t acquire an All-Star big) down the line and Theis or Robert Williams are ideal candidates for that role.

Williams may not be ready for bigger minutes just yet but Theis has shown time and time again that the C’s can play at an elite level with him on the floor. For the present and the future, he deserves a little more run which should serve the team well in both the short and long term.