It's likely that this week's Winter Meetings will see the Red Sox focus mostly on the back end of their bullpen.
Closer Craig Kimbrel is a free agent is said to be seeking a six-year deal, which almost certainly means the end of his stay in Boston. At minimum, the Red Sox will need to find his replacement to handle the ninth inning. Additionally, should Joe Kelly not return, the Sox will be in the market for another experienced high-leveraged option to work with Matt Barnes and Ryan Brasier.
There's no shortage of accomplished relievers on the free agent market, which means the Sox should be able to fill their needs without sacrificing anyone from their prospect pool.
Filling the bullpen openings will essentially complete the Red Sox roster for 2019, with the rotation and position player holes already accomplished.
However, there will remain another issue on the team's to-do list: moving one of their catchers.
Last year, largely because Blake Swihart was out of options, the Red Sox carried three catchers for most of the season, not wanting to expose Swihart to waivers, where he could be lost for nothing.
They could follow the same roster model and retain all three, a scenario that Dave Dombrowski termed "unlikely but not impossible,'' back in November.
Retaining all three for another season would seem problematic and not sustainable. Roster flexibility is more important than ever in the modern game, and while three catchers, in theory, offers in-game maneuverability for pinch-hitting or pinch-running for a catcher, it's far from optimum.
But if the Red Sox are going move a catcher, which one should go?
Here's a look at the trio of receivers and their respective strengths and weaknesses:
CHRISTIAN VAZQUEZ
Positives: Cost control; arm strength; ability to make contact.
Negatives: General inconsistency; lack of power.
Skinny: The Red Sox were hoping that last year would represent a breakout season for Vazquez. At 27, he seemed poised to enter his prime, especially after he posted a slash line of .314/.359/.453 in the second half of 2017. That led them to give him a four-year contract during spring training. But the offense never materialized until the postseason and he essentially played himself out of the No. 1 catcher's spot by midseason. Worse, manager Alex Cora hinted that part of his first-half struggles behind the plate came from poor focus. Vazquez is signed for $13.3 million over the next three seasons, but that won't preclude him from being dealt, as that's highly affordable. Of the three catchers the Sox have, he may the most well-rounded. The fact that he hasn't claimed the spot, however, is worrisome.
SANDY LEON
Positives: Game-calling and preparation; pitch blocking; has confidence of pitching staff.
Negatives: Inability to make consistent contact; body type.
Skinny: For a time last season, it appeared as though Leon might seize the No. 1 catcher's role and not relinquish it. After a brutally slow start with the bat, Leon got hot (relatively speaking) and sported a .726 OPS on July 1. But what followed was, frankly, an abysmal offensive showing the rest of the way. From Aug. 1 through the end of the regular season, he slashed .098/.162/.174, a line so inept it would make a woeful NL pitcher seem like an offensive threat by comparison. Leon will be 30 before the season begins and his body isn't about to get any more athletic as he ages. (Then again, the entire Molina clan had similar body types and managed to catch regularly into their late 30's). Putting aside his offensive ineptitude, there could be a revolt among Sox pitchers if Leon is dealt, especially from Chris Sale, with whom Leon has built a strong bond over the last two seasons.
BLAKE SWIHART
Positives: Athleticism; versatility; upside.
Negatives: Lack of major league catching experience; general receiving skills.
Skinny: The Red Sox jealously guarded Swihart in 2018, shoe-horning him onto the roster when he wasn't a particularly good fit (especially early in the season), then ignoring his agent's midseason request to trade him elsewhere. And yet, oddly enough, he earned only 198 at-bats for the entire season. Over the course of the year, Cora's confidence in him as a catcher seemed to grow, but he got as many starts (16) combined at first and the outfield as he did behind the plate. Swihart will turn 24 a month into the season and this year will be pivotal to him. After all the Sox went through last year to protect him, it would seem a longshot that they would give up on him now, especially with his value still not fully established. They risk dealing him, then watching him develop into a solid, two-way catcher elsewhere.
PREDICTION
Despite the intangibles and the support he has from the veteran starters, the best move for the Red Sox would be to deal Leon. That would make Vazquez the clear No. 1 catcher, with Swihart as the backup, and potentially, the No. 1 in-waiting, should he be further developed. Leon may not fetch a whole lot in return given his struggles with the bat. Then again, there are plenty of catchers who have enjoyed long careers in the big leagues based solely on their ability to call a game, handle a staff and provide leadership, so teams will value someone who brings those skills.
For now, the Red Sox don't have any projectable catching in the minor leagues. Currently, their most highly-regarded catching prospect in their system is Kole Cottam, last year's fourth-round pick. At minimum, it would appear that Cottam, 21, is three years away from contributing at the big league level.
That makes it incumbent upon the organization to make the right call here, since there's no immediate help on the horizon without the Sox signing or dealing for a catcher.
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