Tracking Patriots' incentives after Week 13 - How close are some players to cashing in?

In an attempt to give you the most accurate projections of the Patriots 2019 adjusted cap number and 2019 salary cap space number -- as well as who could be in line for a big payday -- I'll track the Patriots 2018 incentives.



BACKGROUND

LTBE incentives count against the team’s salary cap in the year, they're scheduled to be earned. All but one (46-man active roster) NLTBE bonuses do not. Whether or not the player accomplished the feat in the prior year determines if the incentive will be considered LTBE (Likely to Be Earned) or NLTBE (Not Likely to Be Earned). By way of example, since Julian Edelman he was not active for any games in 2017 all of his 46-man active roster bonuses are considered NLTBE for this year.

Earned LTBE incentives: Since they already count against the current year's cap, earning LTBE incentives will not change the player's cap number.
Unearned LTBE incentives: When a player does not earn an LTBE incentive, his team will then receive a credit on next years' cap.
Earned NTLBE incentives: Forty-six man active roster bonuses count against current year's cap. All other earned NLBTE incentives count as a debit against next year's cap.
Unearned NLTBE incentives: When a player does not earn an NLTBE incentive, it has no impact on current year's cap or on next year's cap since the incentive was not counting against the team's salary cap.

With that in mind, let's look at each player:

* Tom Brady has five LTBE $1,000,000 incentives. They are for:

• Finishing in the Top 5 in passer rating -- Unlikely, since Brady with a passer rating of 96.8 is currently 16th


• Finishing in the Top 5 in completion percentage -- Unlikely, since Brady -- who is completing 65.9 percent of his passes -- is currently 21st.


• Finishing in the Top 5 in yards per attempt -- Unlikely, since Brady is currently 11th with a YPA of 7.70.


• Finishing in the Top 5 in touchdown passes -- Unlikely, since Brady is tied for 14th with 20 touchdown passes and is eight touchdown passes behind Philip Rivers who is currently in fifth place.


• Finishing in the Top 5 in passing yards -- Possible, since Brady is currently in 9th place with 3,342 passing yards. Aaron Rodgers, who is currently in fifth place, has thrown for 3,504 yards.

• Scoring nine touchdowns incentive -- Possible, since Gronkowski, who has scored two touchdowns, would have to score at least six touchdowns over a four-game span. He has done that six times over his career.


• Catching 70 passes -- Unlikely. Gronkowski has 35 receptions and would have to catch at least 35 passes over a four-game span. He has never done that in his career.


• Having 1,085 receiving yards -- Unlikely. Gronkowski has 530 receiving yards and would have to have 555 receiving yards over a four-game span. He has never done that during his career.


• Playing in 80 percent of the snaps -- Impossible. If the Patriots offense continues to average 70 snaps a game and if he were to play in 100 percent of them going forward, his play-time percentage for the year would be 77.72 percent.

• 40 percent -- Earned. If the Patriots defense continues to average 68 snaps a game and McCourty does not play a snap the rest of the season, his playing-time percentage will be 62.71 percent.


• 50 percent -- Earned for the above reason.


• 60 percent -- Earned for the above reason.


• 70 percent -- Probable since he has played in 83.7 percent of the snaps so far this year.


• 80 percent -- Probable since he has played in 83.7 percent of the snaps so far this year.

• 20 percent -- Earned. If the Patriots offense continues to average 69 snaps a game and Waddle does not play a snap the rest of the season, his play-time percentage will be 29.6 percent.


• 40 percent -- Probable. Waddle has played in 40.2 percent of the offensive snaps so far this season.


• 60 percent -- Possible. If either Marcus Cannon or Trent Brown miss a game, he would fill in.


• 80 percent -- Impossible. If the Patriots offense continues to average 70 snaps a game and if Waddle were to play in 100 percent of the remaining snaps, his play-time percentage for the year would end up being 55.3 percent.

• 55 percent worth $300,000 -- Impossible. If the Patriots defense continues to average 68 snaps a game and even if Clayborn were to play in 100 percent of them going forward, his playing-time percentage for the year would be 52.39 percent


• 60 percent worth $300,000 -- Impossible for the same reason.


• 65 percent worth $400,000 -- Impossible for the same reason.


• 75 percent worth $500,000 -- Impossible for the same reason.

• A $500,000 Pro Bowl incentive -- Unlikely, given that one can make the case that Kyle Van Noy has played better this season.


• A $500,000 All-Pro incentive -- Unlikely, given the performance of other linebackers such as Khalil Mack, Bobby Wagner, and Luke Kuechly.


• A 65 percent $375,000 playing-time incentive -- Probable since even after being inactive for one game, Hightower has played in 70 percent of the Patriots' defensive snaps.


• A 70 percent $250,000 playing-time incentive -- Possible for the same reason.


• A 75 percent $250,000 playing-time incentive -- Possible for the same reason.


• An 80 percent $125,000 playing-time incentive -- Impossible. If the Patriots defense continues to average 70 snaps a game and even if Hightower were to play in 100 percent of them going forward, his play-time percentage for the year would be 78.14 percent.

• A 50 percent play-time incentive -- Probable, since White has played in 58.46 percent of the offensive snaps in 2018.


• A 60 percent playing-time incentive -- Probable for the same reason.


• 1,000 total yards from scrimmage -- Probable. White has 988 yards from scrimmage and is on pace to total 1,317.


• 1,200 total yards from scrimmage -- Probable for the same reason.

• A 40 percent play-time incentive -- Impossible. If the Patriots offense continues to average 70 snaps a game and even if Burkhead were to play in 100 percent of them going forward, his playing-time percentage for the year would be 31.81 percent.


• A 50 percent playing-time incentive -- Impossible for the same reason.


• A 60 percent playing-time incentive -- Impossible for the same reason.


• 1,000 total yards from scrimmage -- Impossible, since Burkhead would have to average over 210.5 scrimmage yards a game over a four-game period. Burkhead's highest total scrimmage yard in his career came in Week 17 of the 2016 season when he totaled 144 yards from scrimmage.


• 1,200 total yards from scrimmage -- Impossible for the same reason.

• A $350,000 Pro Bowl incentive -- Possible. Patterson leads the NFL in kickoff return average. His likely competitor for the honor, Jakeem Grant, will reportedly miss a few games.


• A $350,000 55 percent play-time incentive -- Impossible, since if the Patriots' offense continues to average 70 snaps a game and even if he were to play in 100 percent of them going forward, his playing-time percentage for the year would be 42.32 percent.


• A $350,000 70 percent play-time incentive -- Impossible for the same reason.


• A $350,000 50 receptions incentive -- Impossible. Patterson has 15 receptions and would have to average 8.75 catches a game the rest of the regular season and he has never caught four passes in a game as a member of the Patriots


• A $350,000 70 receptions incentive -- Impossible. Patterson has 15 receptions and would have to average 13.8 catches a game the rest of the regular season. He has never caught four passes in a game as a member of the Patriots.

• 1,057 receiving yards.


• 70 receptions plus seven TDs.


• 80 receptions plus 13 wins.


• 80 receptions plus Super Bowl appearance.

• 130.5 receiving yards over the four remaining games.


• 5.75 catches a game and a touchdown a game.


• Catching 8.25 passes a game AND the Patriots win the last five games of their regular season.


• Average catching 8.25 passes a game AND the Patriots win the AFC.