Five numbers showing the Celtics' offense is turning a corner

The Celtics looked poised to be an offensive powerhouse entering the 2018-19 season, with a collection of former All-Stars and highly-capable shooters to flank around them. Austin Ainge called them the deepest team in the league. Yet, for the first few weeks of the regular season, scoring was the team’s biggest problem amid a 10-10 start. The Celtics ranked among the bottom five offenses in the NBA through mid-November, scoring at a pace that put them below last year’s offense that was missing key contributors like Gordon Hayward and Kyrie Irving for a huge chunk of the season.

While progress has not been apparent in the win-loss column until this past week, the Celtics’ offense has been slowly but surely making gains over the past 10 contests following a putrid start. They played their best three offensive games of the year in the past week (in part due to a starting lineup shift), pushing them to the 20th overall in the NBA in points per possession, digging themselves out of the NBA basement. However, a closer look over the last 10 games shows that the team’s offensive progress goes back even further. They rank 9th in the NBA over that stretch, scoring 110 points per 100 possessions, a mark that would have been a top-6 offense over the course of 82 games last year.

So what team is the real deal? The offense we saw over the first ten games that flirted with last year’s subpar production? Or the efficient group that we’ve seen over the past 10 games that is scoring like the Warriors? A closer look at the five numbers over that stretch indicates the latter is what we are in store for over the next 59 games.

36.5 percent accuracy from 3-point range: This is a promising number on a couple of fronts. It’s only slightly above Boston’s season accuracy from deep (35.9 percent) but it’s a very sustainable mark with the talent on this roster. The Celtics are getting better on offense but this signals they aren’t relying on a hot stretch of shooting to get better. For all of the guys shooting well during the past 10 games (Al Horford, Marcus Smart, Jayson Tatum), there have been just as many on the roster struggling (Jaylen Brown, Terry Rozier and Aron Baynes are all shooting under 30 percent from 3 in same stretch). Gordon Hayward (32 percent) still isn’t hitting at an above-average rate, while guys like Marcus Morris (38 percent in past 10 games) are showing that his fast start looks sustainable. Essentially, the numbers suggest that the C’s are still underperforming here as a whole despite being a top-10 3-point shooting team in the NBA over 23 games. There’s room for improvement in this area and that’s a promising sign for an offense on the rise.

27th overall in free throw rate: Ever since Isaiah Thomas was traded away last summer, this has been the consistent flaw within Boston’s offense. It’s a matter of roster construction more than anything else. When you have a bunch of capable 3-point shooters that prefer to play on the perimeter, drawing contact in the paint is not going to happen as much. Irving and Hayward have the best track records in this area but have underperformed in this area (Hayward for obvious reasons). Still, this is going to be a part of the scoring puzzle the C’s need to overcome all year long and they’ve done just that in the past 10 games. Free throws are going to be a bonus for this team on most nights. They can be smarter about attacking the paint but nothing is going to change the fact that guys like Horford, Rozier and Smart aren’t very good at drawing free throws. Hayward will get better, as shown by his season-high 10 attempts on Saturday night, while Brown and Tatum have untapped potential here as well. Still, an unexpected jump in this area over the past 10 games would not be sustainable over the long-term. Barring a trade, Boston is going to be a bottom-10 team in getting to the line all season long. The fact that they can be a top-10 offense in spite of that reality is encouraging.

13.8 second-chance points per game: While the C’s may not have the talent to get to the charity stripe regularly, they do have enough pieces on the roster to make an impact on the offensive glass. Lineup choices in the first half of the season made that tough to see as Horford got the lion’s share of minutes at the center spot while posting a career-worst rebounding rate. Baynes and Daniel Theis are elite offensive rebounders but both need to be on the floor to make an impact and that’s been happening more over the last ten games. While Baynes stint in the starting five likely has come to an end (except for matchup purposes), he’s still averaging another four minutes per game over the past 10 contests while grabbing nearly two offensive rebounds per game. Daniel Theis has seen more consistent stretches as well against bigger front lines (11.9 minutes per game over last 10 contests) and has snagged 1.5 per game. The presence of both those bigs and some scrappy play by Boston’s perimeter players (Hayward and Irving have surprised as contributors on the offensive glass) have put the C’s as the 13th best offensive rebounding team in the league since mid-November. Those second chances have produced 13.8 points on a nightly basis, giving Boston the extra looks needed to help them pull out games. With Stevens committed to playing Theis and Baynes more at center now, this trend is a sustainable one.

20.4 points per game off turnovers: It’s a simple old saying for basketball: Good defense leads to good offense. The Celtics have not played their best defense at times over the past few weeks but they have performed at an elite level while forcing mistakes by their opponents. Only one team in the league is creating more turnovers per game (16.8) than Boston in the past 10 games and the C’s are doing a terrific job of taking advantage of those miscues by posting over 20 points per game off turnovers (1st in NBA). The C’s roster really is built for this ability, with a number of players capable of handling the ball and pushing it in transition from Irving all the way up to the center spot in Horford. Forcing turnovers is an area that the team had been doing well all year long, but now the team is finally hitting some open shots to finish off these transition opportunities. 55 percent of their shot attempts have come via open or wide open situations this year and that’s the highest mark in the league. A large percentage of those comes in transition on the break with plays like these.



Generating open looks leads to points and we are finally seeing the Celtics get rewarded on that front.

Al Horford is shooting 50 percent from 3-point range: Of all the ugly trends in the first half of the regular season we saw from the C’s, Horford’s lack of shot making was the most alarming among them. After knocking down a career-high 43 percent of his 3s last season, he was middling below 30 percent after 15 games despite taking more open 3s than anyone on the team. The All-Star was getting great looks but just wasn’t knocking them down and the C’s offense couldn’t overcome those struggles. The reason for Horford’s extended slump wasn’t initially clear. Regression at age 32 was an alarming possibility as was a possible lingering injury (a sore knee popped up on the injury report a couple weeks back). Banging around with bigger players while starting at the center spot for more minutes per game made people wonder as well. While it may have been a combination of the latter two factors, the good news for Boston is that Horford has snapped out of the funk, knocking down a team-high 50 percent of his 3s over the last 10 games. He’s still below average for the season (34 percent) but has looked rejuvenated in recent weeks. The addition of a couple improved rebounders in the starting five (Marcus Morris, Aron Baynes) being next to him has taken some pressure off of him and that has translated into improved offensive production.

While the C’s know they won’t be getting as much from Horford in other areas of the game (rebounding, free throws) as he ages, this team can’t go anywhere this postseason without him shooting at an elite rate while stretching out defenses. He may not be able to match the 43 percent he hit last year but he’s hitting them enough now to keep defenses honest and that’s what this C’s offense needs to succeed.