The hierarchy of the Sixers’ roster has them in a position that makes them the envy for the vast majority of franchises across the association. They have one of the best players in the league (Joel Embiid) locked up for the next four years and an emerging star (Ben Simmons) playing on his rookie deal for a couple more. They just picked up another All-Star (Jimmy Butler) for an inexpensive haul and are likely to retain him for the long-term when his contract expires this summer. They also might have the opportunity to add another max player to put alongside all of these pieces next summer, depending on where the salary cap lands.
It’s certainly not a challenging time for the franchise, yet it’s hard not to think about where the club might be right now if they were getting close to anything out of the 2017 No. 1 overall pick. Former Sixers general manager Bryan Colangelo gave up a likely lottery selection (the Kings pick) along with the No. 3 overall pick (which turned into Jayson Tatum) to land the formerly prized point guard in Markelle Fultz and it remains to be seen whether the 20-year-old will play another game in Philadelphia after suiting up for just 33 contests over the past two seasons.
The 6-foot-4 hybrid guard is back on the hunt for shoulder specialists, according to Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN.com, after falling out of the Sixers rotation in wake of the Butler deal. The lingering shoulder issue came as a surprise to new Sixers general manager Elton Brand who has been publicly supportive of his player amid rumors that the guard wants out of Philadelphia after a tumultuous two years riddled with intense media scrutiny on his mysterious shot form and injury issues
The Sixers remained patient with the former top prospect last year, giving him ample time to try to regain his confidence and health while competing at the top of the Eastern Conference. Little changed for Fultz though when he went through an extended recovery process as his hesitancy to shoot a jumper and overall ineffectiveness (26 percent from 3-point range, 53 percent from free throw line) has continued in his sophomore season, resulting in T.J. McConnell getting his minutes right before more shoulder pain cropped up yet again.
While there’s no guarantee a trade happens in the next couple of months, it’s fair to assume that Fultz’s tenure in Philadelphia won’t last beyond next season. There is too much baggage on for both sides now to see a reconciliation, especially with the Sixers’ desire to win now. The more intriguing question now to watch is just how exactly the Sixers handle the situation and what the trade market looks like for the young guard for both now and the future. BostonSportsJournal.com spoke with front office personnel in both conferences to get a better sense of what awaits the Sixers if they try to pull a trigger on a deal now or wait until Fultz can regain some value.
A rookie deal, but not a cheap one
Rookie contracts are largely considered steals for most rotation players in the league, particularly by the third and fourth years of those contracts. Young players generally take big steps forward in those seasons and that progress surpasses whatever modest raises they get within a rookie scale contract.
The one exception to that rule is with top-5 picks. A rising salary cap in recent years has suddenly put the salaries for those deals in a far pricier range for teams. That’s led to some teams failing to pick up team options in year three and four for busts taken in the top-5 (Dragan Bender in Phoenix this fall would be the most recent example).
While it’s far too early to call Fultz a bust given his age and injury woes, his current contract is a liability according to league sources. The guard earns $8.3 million this year and is locked in for $9.7 million next year in the third year of his rookie deal. That’s above mid-level exception money and takes a sizable chunk of any team’s cap room heading into a summer that is loaded with appealing free agents.
While it may be worth gambling on Fultz's potential next year at $9.7 million, whatever team he is on next fall will have to make a decision on his $12.2 million option for 2020-21 by October 31st. That’s a hefty chunk of change to invest in potential, especially if Fultz is sidelined for the majority of this season with injury woes. While declining that option does not necessarily preclude a team from keeping Fultz long-term, it does turn his rookie deal until more of a liability than an asset from a Sixers perspective.
A lack of suitors in need of guards
Loaded depth charts could be the biggest problem for the Sixers, according to league sources when it comes to finding decent value for Fultz. The Celtics found on firsthand on this front over the summer that the market for guards is a bit softer than expected, largely due to the excess amount of talent across the association at these spots. When you look around the league, there are not a lot of teams that need their point guard of the future, especially when the one being shopped has shooting issues serving as a major liability.
Even teams already out of the playoff mix don’t really have much of a need for a guy like Fultz to build around. The Cavs just drafted the point guard of their future in Colin Sexton and the same goes for the Hawks in Trae Young. There are a few obvious franchises with needs in that spot (Phoenix, Orlando) but that limited pool will make it hard for the Sixers to land the type of help (low cost, win-now pieces) that would justify moving Fultz now. No team in a playoff race (which is essentially the entire Western Conference) are going to give up an important part of their rotation to gamble on Fultz at this point. There are too many questions about his issues on and off the floor to take that risk.
The reality of the situation may force the Sixers to simply wait Fultz out again, perhaps until the summer, a time in which more teams would be willing to take a chance on him. His trade value can’t get much worse at this point so unless they simply want to remove his shadow from the franchise over the next several months, the incentive to deal him now is very limited. Barring a surprise bidder entering the fold, I’d expect very little movement on Fultz until the trade deadline, with the odds on him staying put until the summer.
Other NBA News and Notes
- Joakim Noah is officially back in the league after signing a one-year deal with the Grizzlies this week. It’s going to be tough for him to get minutes in that frontcourt alongside Marc Gasol, Jaren Jackson and JaMychal Green but he could provide some decent insurance if Gasol gets nicked up.
- Nice addition for the Jazz this week in Kyle Korver, in a move that comes as welcome news for the Celtics for keeping the 3-point marksman away from the East contenders. Putting a guy like Korver next to the likes of Kawhi or Giannis would have given Brad Stevens nightmares this spring.
- The soap opera between Kings head coach Dave Joerger and the front office would be the story of the season if it was coming from a bigger market, but since it involves such a dysfunctional franchise, it’s almost business as usual. Incredibly, Sacramento is still treading water at .500 despite playing in the loaded West.
- Keep an eye on the Pacers in the standings over the next few weeks after Victor Oladipo was sidelined indefinitely. They’ve got Tyreke Evans to fill in for him but some defensive dropoff could lead to some slippage towards the bottom half of the East with Myles Turner struggling as well.
- Another tough break for Thunder wing Andre Robertson who suffered another setback in his rehab from knee surgery this week. He could be a piece that turns the Thunder into a true defensive juggernaut in the West, but they are going to have to wait a couple more months to get him back in the fold.