The Celtics aren’t the only team staring disappointment in the mirror as they pass the quarter pole of the regular season.
A host of teams across both conferences are looking at very underwhelming starts in the face of high expectations. While Danny Ainge is expected to be a patient man when it comes to shuffling the deck with this mostly younger core, other franchises may benefit from a bit of a shakeup. Which teams and players should you keep an eye on in the coming weeks as December 15th (the day teams can start trading free agents) approaches? Let’s examine the possibilities:
Houston Rockets
Injuries to James Harden and other role players within their rotation have been a factor within their 9-9, start but the numbers don’t lie about Houston’s defensive woes. After losing a couple of their key rotation cogs, they have regressed into a bottom-seven defense in the NBA. The team replaced standouts like Trevor Ariza and Luc Mbah a Moute with James Ennis and Carmelo Anthony, and the results have gone like everyone expected. They are getting killed on the defensive glass, fouling more than anyone else in the West, and allowing opponents to take the second-most 3-pointers in the league. They have already brought back their former top defensive assistant (Jeff Bzdelik) out of retirement and sent Anthony home for good to help address the problems, but that isn’t solving what is largely a personnel issue across the roster. P.J. Tucker, Clint Capela and Chris Paul are the only above-average defensive pieces in the rotation right now, and they aren’t collectively good enough to make up for others' mistakes.
What do they need on the trade market? The sense of urgency is real for this group, especially given the age of Chris Paul. The rumors swirling around Jimmy Butler were very much real, but the fact that the Rockets lacked younger appealing trade pieces loomed large in those talks. There is literally nothing at the bottom of the roster that moves the needle for potential suitors. If Daryl Morey is going to make a meaningful move, he’s going to have to sacrifice multiple first round picks with a bad salary (Brandon Knight) or shake up his rotation by moving a key piece (Gordon, Tucker). Those guys are vital components of this roster, so the guess here is that Morey is going to have to mortgage some of his future picks in order to turn this team back into a real contender. A versatile defensive wing is the top priority on the wish list, something they may have to wait until the buyout market hits to acquire.
Miami Heat
Two summers ago, Pat Riley appeared to be putting together a team destined for mediocrity with a bunch of mid-tier signings that combined to eat up a huge chunk of the Heat’s cap room. That storyline has played itself out quite accurately in 2018-19, as the Heat has stumbled out to a 6-11 record thanks to a long list of underwhelming contributions from high-priced role players. The problems start at the top with Hassan Whiteside making max money for a vulnerable skillset on both ends. He can’t shoot outside the paint and can’t defend much beyond there either, making him a liability in plenty of matchups. There has been some young promising talent that’s emerged (Josh Richardson, Rodney McGruder), but that has been balanced out by underwhelming play from overpaid role pieces like Kelly Olynyk, Tyler Johnson and Goran Dragic. Dion Waiters remains sidelined indefinitely with ankle woes while James Johnson is shooting 17 percent from the field in his first week back on the floor. There are a lot of different parts here, but the end result has been an ugly offense (29th in field goal percentage) with no real promising future to build toward.
What do they need on the trade market? Some sort of blockbuster deal. The best thing that might help them for the future is trying to clear their books and open up some salary cap space. That’s easier said than done with six rotation players making $10 million or more and all of them looking overpaid, outside of maybe Goran Dragic. The only way a team is going to take on a long-term deal from the likes of Olynyk, Johnson or Waiters is to dump some of their overpaid talent in the process. With most franchises trying to maintain salary cap space for next summer, it’s going to be a tough sell to move any of those pieces after those ill-advised contracts. The Heat is going to have to swallow hard and move an alluring piece like Richardson or Justise Winslow to get it done, and that’s a heavy price to pay. At this point, they might be better off just trying to steady the ship since even an All-Star addition like Jimmy Butler wouldn’t guarantee to get this group much further than the second round.
Washington Wizards
We chronicled a number of their problems in greater depth on Wednesday of this week. It doesn’t make sense to dive too much deeper into them, largely due to their lack of appealing contracts. Bradley Beal is the prized piece, Tomas Satorasky is a cheap effective role player and nearly everyone else within this group is a bad contract. Like the Heat, if they can’t get off some of these deals without mortgaging draft picks, they might be better off just riding out the storm.
What do they need in the trade market? I took a closer look at their individual needs and pieces of value earlier this week.
Utah Jazz
Like with the Celtics, this ugly start remains one of the biggest mysteries of the young season. There has been no major change in personnel from a team that won 48 games and ranked as the second-best defense in the league this year. They’ve regressed in nearly all areas through 19 games on their way to an 8-11 record. That top-flight defense is now largely mediocre (14th in the NBA) while a middle-of-the-pack offense from last year has dropped in the bottom-four of the league.
The issues here begin with outside shooting. Joe Ingles and Alex Burks are the only two rotation players that are knocking down over 32 percent of their 3-point shots. No team in today’s NBA can get away with that type of slumping from so many players on the perimeter (Ricky Rubio, Jae Crowder, Donovan Mitchell). The Jazz was already a high-turnover team to begin with, and the shooting woes have turned them into a team that produces ugly possessions on most nights (when not playing the Celtics).
What do they need on the trade market? They have a nice mix of salary through their depth chart with both expiring deals (Alec Burks, Ricky Rubio), good value deals (Crowder, Joe Ingles) and some rookie deals with unclear potential (Georges Niang, Grayson Allen, Tony Bradley). The chief target here has to be finding some sort of consistent shooting to help pull the offense out of the mud and take some pressure off of a reeling Donovan Mitchell. They are relying on too many players that have spotty track records from the perimeter (Crowder, Rubio, Dante Exum), and they have enough appealing pieces to address that problem with picks or players. It’s no guarantee that it would propel them back into the top half of the West playoff picture, but it gives them a fighting chance, assuming their defense starts to round back into form.
Other NBA Observations
- No surprise to see the Cavs showing some signs of life after J.R. Smith was sent home for the season as the team searches for trade possibilities with him. Doing so is going to be a lot easier said than done with $14.7 million owed to a guy that was already largely washed up last season. He also has $4 million guaranteed on his deal next year. Some contender could take a chance on him, but a buyout seems like the more likely path eventually.
- Joakim Noah appears to be on the verge of re-emerging with the Memphis Grizzlies, according to a host of reports. The center hasn’t seen the floor since early last season with the Knicks. With the Grizzlies looking to stay in the playoff mix in the West, he could be some nice insurance at the center spot in case Marc Gasol goes down for any extended stretch. Whether or not he is in shape enough for regular rotation minutes will be the bigger question that looms over his addition.
- Tough loss for the Pelicans with Elfrid Payton, who will miss the next six weeks after undergoing surgery on his broken pinky this past week. New Orleans lacks viable depth in the backcourt anyway and Payton was off to a nice start to the year after piling up a couple triple-doubles alongside Anthony Davis. In what is an important year for the franchise to show Davis that they are a viable playoff team, Payton’s absence has them floundering to a 10-10 start.
- On the flip side, it’s been an embarrassment of riches in the backcourt for the Clippers. Milos Teodosic was a useful rotation player last year when healthy, but he’s been stuck on the bench for much of the year while the likes of Lou Williams, Patrick Beverley and Avery Bradley eat up most of the minutes in the backcourt. Teodosic is threatening to return back to the EuroLeague if he doesn’t get more of an opportunity.