The offseason is just now beginning to pick up steam. There have been no significant free agent signings, but trade talk is simmering.
One player drawing the most attention in trade chatter is New York Mets right-hander Noah Syndergaard. The Mets are said to be focused on trying to extend Cy Young Award winner Jacob deGrom, but are said to be willing listen on offers for Syndergaard.
To date, a half-dozen teams are said to be in pursuit of the pitcher. From all reports, the Red Sox are not involved.
On the surface, that's perfectly understandable. As currently constituted, the Red Sox rotation is a strong one, with Chris Sale, David Price, Rick Porcello, Eduardo Rodriguez and Steven Wright all set to return for 2018, with Brian Johnson and Hector Velazquez available as depth options.
The Sox would like to retain free agent Nathan Eovaldi, but he likely represents too steep an investment. By my (admittedly) rough calculations, the Red Sox have already gone over the first luxury tax threshold of $206 million for 2019, and any more additions this winter -- or next July -- will take them further over the next two thresholds.
So, the Sox might be wise to simply add a back-end veteran starter -- A Tyson Ross sort, or Derek Holland, say -- and have their rotation truly set with sufficient depth.
But what if the Red Sox got creative and entered the bidding for Syndergaard?
There's a lot to like about Syndergaard beyond his obvious talent. He's just 26 and remains relatively inexpensive with a projected salary arbitration figure of just $5.9 million.
And here's what's really intriguing about Syndergaard: he's under control for three more seasons. That's an important consideration rate when you look at the expiration date of the current rotation.
Sale and Porcello are each eligible for free agency after 2019. Retaining one will be highly expensive; retaining both will be virtually impossible, since it will likely require paying one (Sale) in excess of $30 million annually and the other (Porcello) will expect at least a modest raise over his current AAV of $20.5 million.
At some point, the Red Sox have to begin to think about overhauling their rotation for the near future. Perhaps a trade for Syndergaard would be one way to start that process.
A rotation of Sale, Price, Syndergaard, Porcello and Rodriguez with Wright in reserve would be the strongest in the game and better position the Sox to successfully defend their World Series title.
But it would also set up the Sox nicely for the future and extend their championship window for another couple of years. If they had to sacrifice Porcello while retaining Sale after 2019, Syndergaard offers built-in insurance. And as was the case when they traded for Sale, he comes at an affordable salary. While it's difficult to know what he might earn in salary arbitration for both 2020 and 2021, let's guess that that figure will be around $14 million for 2020 and $20 for 2021.
That translates into $39 million over the next three seasons, an average of $13 million per year -- or, exactly what was remaining on Sale's deal (minus bumps that came from award voting) when they acquired him. Where are the Sox going to get a starter of Syndergaard's caliber at that price? Answer: they aren't.
Naturally, there is another cost for Syndergaard that won't come cheaply -- namely, the acquisition cost. The Mets are intent on maximizing his value to help them rebuild on the fly. Being in New York, the Mets aren't about to strip everything down to the foundation. They want to continue to try to compete even as they get a bit younger, with the team's rotation (deGrom, Zack Wheeler, Steven Matz) serving as the centerpiece of the team.
The Mets aren't interested in accumulating top prospects who can't be counted on for another few years. They want players without a lot of major league service time who can contribute now ... or at least soon. Their primary needs are catcher, anywhere in the infield except shortstop, and center field.
So what if the Red Sox packaged Rafael Devers, Blake Swihart and another nearly-ready prospect (maybe Michael Chavis) for Syndergaard? Would that be enough?
Devers would be a big loss, but one the Sox could sustain. Yes, he has enormous talent and power and could blossom into a perennial All-Star. But to get somebody of Syndergaard's stature, you have to give up a big piece and Devers fits that bill.
As talented as he is, the Sox could then sign a veteran third baseman (Mike Moustakas? Jed Lowrie? Josh Donaldson?) to a short (two-year) deal, while waiting for Bobby Dalbec to be ready and offer the kind of power that Devers represents.
At catcher, the Sox would still have the duo of Christian Vazquez and Sandy Leon. Neither offers much offense and neither possesses the kind of upside represented by Swihart, but the Sox could live with two for the near future.
More than anything, obtaining Syndergaard would give the Red Sox a chance to extend their championship window. Even in a worst-case scenario -- under which the Sox are either unwilling or unable to keep either Sale or Porcello past next year -- Syndergaard, Price and Rodriguez would give the Sox a solid nucleus in their rotation, to which they could add Darwinzon Hernandez, Jay Groome and perhaps Tanner Houck.
It beats the alternative -- or at the very least, the risk - of losing both Porcello and Sale to free agency while retaining only Price and Rodriguez. Though durability has been an issue (Syndergaard has started just 32 games in the last two seasons), he doesn't have any major physical issues to watch and his stuff (including a fastball that regularly touches 100 mph and a 93-mph slider) is unquestionably elite.
In short, Syndergaard profiles as someone with the potential to serve as a No. 1 starter. To get him at an affordable salary for three years at 26 shouldn't be dismissed.
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