How close are Patriots close to reaching their incentives?

This offseason we saw Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski agree to restructures that involved incentives. Those incentives will play a significant role in determining how much space that the Patriots will have next offseason. How close are they to hitting their marks?



BACKGROUND

LTBE incentives count against the team’s salary cap in the year that they are scheduled to be earned. All but one (46-man active roster) NLTBE bonuses do not. Whether or not the player accomplished the feat in the prior year determines if the incentive will be considered LTBE (Likely to Be Earned) or NLTBE (Not Likely to Be Earned). Let's use Julian Edelman as an example. Since he was not active for any games in 2017 all of his 46-man active roster bonuses are considered NLTBE for this year.

Earned LTBE incentives: Since they already count against the current year's cap, earning LTBE incentives will not change the player's cap number.
Unearned LTBE incentives: When a player does not earn an LTBE incentive, his team will then receive a credit on next years' cap.
Earned NTLBE incentives: Forty-six man active roster bonuses count against current year's cap. All other earned NLBTE incentives count as a debit against next year's cap.
Unearned NLTBE incentives: When a player does not earn an NLTBE incentive, it has no impact on current year's cap or on next year's cap since the incentive was not counting against the team's salary cap.

* Brady has five LTBE $1,000,000 incentives. They are for:

• Finishing in the Top 5 in passer rating -- Unlikely, since Brady with a passer rating of 94.7 is currently 17th


• Finishing in the Top 5 in completion percentage -- Unlikely, since Brady -- who is completing 65.2 percent of his passes -- is currently 18th


• Finishing in the Top 5 in yards per attempt -- Unlikely, since Brady is currently 18th with a YPA of 7.41.


• Finishing in the Top 5 in touchdown passes -- Possible, since Brady is tied for 11th with 17 touchdown passes, and is six touchdown passes behind the players tied for fourth. I'm pretty sure if Brady finishes in a tie for fourth he will earn the incentive.


• Finishing in the Top 5 in passing yards -- Unlikely, since Brady is currently in 11th place with 2,748 passing yards. Aaron Rodgers, who is currently in fifth place, has thrown for 3,073 yards.

• Scoring nine touchdowns incentive -- Possible, since Gronkowski, who has scored one touchdown, would have to score at least eight touchdowns over a six-game span. He has done that eleven times over his career.


• Catching 70 passes -- Unlikely. Gronkowski has 29 receptions, and would have to catch at least 41 passes over a six-game span. He has done only once (caught 42 passes during late October through early December 2014) in his career.


• Having 1,085 receiving yards -- Unlikely. Gronkowski has 448 receiving yards, and would have to have 637 receiving yards over a six-game span. He has never done that during his career. The most receiving yards he has garnered over a six-game period came during the last four games of the 2011 regular postseason and the first two games of the 2011 postseason when he totaled 631 receiving yards.


• Playing in 80 percent of the snaps -- Impossible, since if the Patriots offense continues to average 69 snaps a game. Even if he were to play in 100 percent of them going forward his playing-time percentage for the year would be 77.7 percent.

• 40 percent -- Earned. If the Patriots defense continues to average 69 snaps a game and McCourty does not play a snap the rest of the season, his playing-time percentage will be 50.41 percent.


• 50 percent -- Probable since he has played in 80.7 percent of the snaps so far this year.


• 60 percent -- Probable since he has played in 80.7 percent of the snaps so far this year.


• 70 percent -- Probable since he has played in 80.7 percent of the snaps so far this year.


• 80 percent -- Probable since he has played in 80.7 percent of the snaps so far this year.

• 20 percent -- Earned. If the Patriots offense continues to average 69 snaps a game and Waddle does not play a snap the rest of the season, his playing-time percentage will be 29 percent.


• 40 percent -- Probable. Waddle has played in 46.4 percent of the offensive snaps so far this season.


• 60 percent -- Possible. If either Marcus Cannon or Trent Brown miss a game, he would fill in.


• 80 percent -- Impossible. If the Patriots offense continues to average 69 snaps a game and if Waddle were to play in 100 percent of the remaining snaps, his playing-time percentage for the year would end up being 66.5 percent.

• 55 percent worth $300,000 -- Unlikely, since he would have to play a higher percentage of snaps the rest of the season than he has in any game this season.


• 60 percent worth $300,000 -- Unlikely for the same reason.


• 65 percent worth $400,000 -- Impossible. If the Patriots defense continues to average 69 snaps a game and if Clayborn were to play in 100 percent of them going forward, his playing-time percentage for the year would be 59.66 percent.


• 75 percent worth $500,000 -- Impossible for the same reason.

• A $500,000 Pro Bowl incentive -- Unlikely, given that one can make the case that Kyle Van Noy has played better this season.


• A $500,000 All-Pro incentive -- Unlikely, given the performance of other linebackers such as Khalil Mack, Bobby Wagner, and Luke Kuechly


• A 65 percent $375,000 playing-time incentive -- Probable since even after being inactive for one game, Hightower has played in 69 percent of the Patriots' defensive snaps.


• A 70 percent $250,000 playing-time incentive -- Possible for the same reason.


• A 75 percent $250,000 playing-time incentive -- Possible for the same reason.


• An 80 percent $125,000 playing-time incentive -- Unlikely, since Hightower would have to play in more than 97 percent of the snaps the rest of the way and he has not taken part in more than 93 percent of the defensive snaps in any of the nine games he has played in.

• A 50 percent playing-time incentive -- Probable, since White has played in 60.5 percent of the offensive snaps in 2018.


• A 60 percent playing-time incentive -- Probable for the same reason.


• 1,000 total yards from scrimmage -- Probable. White has 769 yards from scrimmage, and is on pace to total 1,267.


• 1,200 total yards from scrimmage -- Probable for the same reason.

• A 40 percent playing-time incentive -- Unlikely, since he would have to play 100 percent of the snaps in the last five games of the season to go over forty percent for the year.


• A 50 percent playing-time incentive -- Impossible for the same reason.


• A 60 percent playing-time incentive -- Impossible for the same reason.


• 1,000 total yards from scrimmage -- Impossible, since Burkhead would have to average over 176 scrimmage yards a game over a five-game period. Burkhead's highest total scrimmage yard in his career came in Week 17 of the 2016 season when he totaled 144 yards from scrimmage.


• 1,200 total yards from scrimmage -- Impossible, since Burkhead would have to average over 216 scrimmage yards a game over a five-game period. Burkhead's highest total scrimmage yard in his career came in Week 17 of the 2016 season when he totaled 144 yards from scrimmage.

• A $350,000 Pro Bowl incentive -- Possible. Patterson leads the NFL in kickoff return average. His likely competitor for the honor, Jakeem Grant, will reportedly miss a few games.


• A $350,000 55 percent playing-time incentives -- Unlikely, since Patterson would have to play in over 94 percent of the snaps the rest of the way and he has never played that high of a percentage of snaps in any game this season.


• A $350,000 70 percent playing-time incentive -- Impossible, since if the Patriots offense continues to average 69 snaps a game and even if he were to play in 100 percent of them going forward his playing-time percentage for the year would be 52.13 percent.


• A $350,000 50 receptions incentive -- Impossible. Patterson has 12 receptions,and would have to average 6.33 catches a game the rest of the regular season and he has never caught four passes in a game as a member of the Patriots


• A $350,000 70 receptions incentive -- Impossible. Patterson has 12 receptions, and would have to average 9.67 catches a game the rest of the regular season. He has never caught four passes in a game as a member of the Patriots.