Robb: The case for starting Marcus Smart

Just over one year ago, there was a pretty intriguing debate before the start of the 2017-18 regular season on whether Marcus Smart or Jaylen Brown would get the nod at the shooting guard spot next to Kyrie Irving.

Smart seemingly had the defensive edge and experience advantage while Brown provided the higher offensive upside. Brad Stevens was going to have a decision to make during training camp but one week in, Smart made it for him.

"Coach Stevens called me in and he was talking to me, and debating whether to start me or take me off the bench," Smart said last October. "I told him in that meeting to bring me off the bench: 'That's OK. You don't have to start me.'"

The choice may have ultimately gone that way anyway, but the episode was a telltale sign of Smart’s willingness to sacrifice for the team. The bench unit needed a point guard to steady the ship and Smart was able to help that group excel and serve his role as a jack of all trades on the defensive end. Meanwhile, Brown excelled with the opportunities he got next to a pair of All-Stars and an undermanned C’s starting five turned into a dominant force all year long despite missing Gordon Hayward.

Brown’s impressive offensive progression quickly asserted his spot in the starting five for this season and rightfully so. His shooting and defensive versatility proved he belonged but those are a couple skills that have not carried over to year three in Boston. He’s been one of the worst high volume shooters in the league through one month, knocking down just 36 percent of his shots from the field and 27 percent from 3-point range. Those are just a start of the trouble signs though for him when you look at both ends of the floor.

Brown’s free-throw rate from last season has nearly been cut in half (attempting just 2.6 per 36 minutes). He’s finishing just 52 percent of his shots when he gets to the rim, a 10 percent dropoff from last year. His rebounding rate is down, is assist rate is down, his steal rate is down. The only real improvement within his individual numbers involves an improved turnover rate. His usage remains almost identical to last year despite the fact he plays with (on paper) a far superior offensive supporting cast. Instead of trying to fall back into a secondary grinder role, Brown has tried to maintain his share of the scoring pie with limited success.

All of these factors have turned Brown into somewhat of a drag on lineups during this slump. The Celtics improve their offensive and defensive rating by three points each when Brown is off the floor. Stevens has stayed away from him at the end of many games early in the season, including at the conclusion of Friday’s win over the Raptors.

“We have a lot of good players,” Stevens said of the decision. “So, there’s going to be times when guys that are good aren’t playing at the end. And there’s going to be other times where we lean on them for, like we did with Kyrie, 38 minutes in a night. I just think that it’s part of it.”

As the C’s starting lineup continues to flounder on the offensive end (94.0 offensive rating, one of worst NBA offenses for lineups that have played over 100 minutes), the inclusion of Marcus Smart (the only player on the roster shooting worse than Brown) would appear to be counterproductive on paper. Yet, there is no denying that the numbers have been better for the Celtics on both ends of the floor when Smart is in the game.

When Smart is in the game:
Offensive rating: 104.5
Defensive rating: 98.1
Net rating: +6.4

When Smart is on the bench
Offensive rating: 102.5
Defensive rating: 100.4
Net rating: +2.1

After the removal of Aron Baynes from the starting five, there has been no one left in that group to do the dirty work, something Smart thrives on. He can provide constant energy on the defensive end, help Al Horford battle for boards against bigs and wings and perhaps most importantly free up a larger percentage of shots for others.

Unlike Brown, Smart has wisely sacrificed some of his shot volume this season, taking just 4.9 attempts per game compared to 9.5 last season. That type of shift is a clear signal that again he’s willing to sacrifice for the betterment of the team. He was obviously taking too many shots last year anyway but that’s a luxury that Stevens afforded him with so many injuries across the roster. This year, the talent is there and Smart is probably the worst shooter on the team, so he’s picking his spots more. It hasn’t improved his percentages but the reduced volume helps the team as a whole since those five attempts are going elsewhere.

Smart is by no means the clear-cut answer to the starting five. The case could be made to insert Baynes as well, who has shown impressive on/off numbers and has the track record of last year’s success to build off of. Semi Ojeleye has made a case for more time for himself in the rotation as well and Marcus Morris seems to be the only one on the team that can hit an open 3 with any regularity, so that by default makes him a candidate to start. Some kind of double switch to the starting group can’t be ruled out entirely. Gordon Hayward’s on/off numbers are very ugly as well so the case could be made to sit him too, but I feel like his progression has been trending upwards lately.

Still, the guy with the longest track record right now with Stevens and a couple days after Stevens called out his starters for a lack of ‘toughness,’ Smart remains one of the few guys on the roster that can be counted on for that trait on a nightly basis. He’s got plenty of flaws as a player but Stevens at least knows what he’s getting out of him. That hasn’t been the case for a lot of the young talent on the roster right now.

While the biggest upside remains with the current starting five for this group long-term, the case for an interim shift becomes stronger with every inconsistent performance we see. Stevens has plenty of reason to remain patient but if he wants to provide a jolt to the starting group, Smart may be the right man for the job.