NFL Notebook: In modern NFL, Patriots continue to buck trend by leaning on sturdy fullback James Develin

In this week’s edition of the NFL Notebook, we look at Phillip Dorsett being on the verge of an impressive feat, the role post-Thanksgiving success or failure might have on a Super Bowl contender, and Matthew Slater’s approach when it comes to calling heads or tails on the opening coin toss. But first, even though he landed a Pro Bowl nod last year, James Develin continues to be one of the most underrated parts of the Patriots’ offense.

1. James Develin has cleared the way for a variety of running backs since he first became a regular feature in the Patriots’ offense in 2013, and has been a steady performer for most of the time since then (save for 2015 when he spent the year entire sidelined with injury).

He’s really been the one consistent piece of a constantly shifting personnel group — this year, Sony Michel will become the eighth different back to lead New England in rushing over an 11-year span — and good things continue to happen when he’s in the lineup. Develin has been on the field for 215 offensive snaps this year — only one other team (San Francisco, with Kyle Juszczyk’s 425 snaps) has used a fullback more often this year. And it’s no coincidence that in the majority of the Patriots’ seven wins this year, New England’s yards per carry average is greater with him on the field than when he’s on the sidelines. (That includes a whopping disparity in the Green Bay game, where the Patriots averaged 6.7 yards per carry with him in the lineup as opposed to 3.4 YPC when he was sidelined.)

While the overall splits are fairly similar, there’s little dispute that when New England is faced with a short-yardage situation, the Patriots are better off with him leading the way. And as the cold weather comes and teams need to lean on the run even more, look for him to play a greater role in the offense moving forward.

“You can ask any guy in the locker room,” said Devin McCourty. “They have a tremendous amount of respect for him not only because we watch – like you guys watch what he does on Sunday – but we watch him every day when we’re in full pads, when we’re not. He’s coming in whether it’s playing fullback, tight end, on every special teams, punt – like he does all of that and it’s usually not saying much.

“It goes back to the attitude and performance. He always has that same attitude and the performance is there every day we’re in here. He’s a guy, I think, during the bye week, guys can look at and say, “If I can be more like (James) and do the things he’s doing, that’ll help me and help us as a team.”

2. We’ve been riding shotgun on the Phillip Dorsett bandwagon since the start of training camp, and one of the reasons why is his dependability. The 25-year-old hasn’t gotten as many chances as some other receivers on the roster over the last year-plus, but he’s made the most of his opportunities, as evidenced by his sterling catch rate. For years, Danny Amendola was the gold standard when it came to dependability in the passing game — he was one of just a handful of NFL receivers to be targeted at least 100 times from 2015-2017 and catch at least 70 percent of the passes thrown in his direction. Now, Dorsett is on the verge of accomplishing something not even Amendola was able to pull off in his time with the Patriots. Dorsett has been targeted 30 times through 10 games, and has caught 25 passes for a catch rate of 83.3 percent. No receiver in the Tom Brady era with a minimum of 30 targets has ever broken 80 percent a single season. Ever. (Amendola’s best season when it came to catch rate was 2016, when he had 23 catches on 29 targets for 79 percent.) It’s a tribute to a guy who has worked hard to get acclimated to the passing game -- the bottom line is that he should get more chances down the stretch.

3. Multiple players said this week that Bill Belichick referenced the fact the real season starts after Thanksgiving, a theme he has returned to time and again over the years. Overall, the Patriots are 105-29 in post-Thanksgiving games since 2001 under Belichick, the best in the league in that stretch. Inevitably, you have a pretty good idea of just how mentally prepared a team is at this time of the year when it comes to how they play after the holiday. You have teams like 2001, 2003 and 2016, all of whom were undefeated after Thanksgiving. Then, you have the teams from 2015 (3-5), 2009 (3-4) and 2002 (3-2), all of whom would come up short. Regardless of what the 7-3 Patriots have been able to achieve to this point in the season, they understand their legacy will inevitably be shaped by their performance and the outcome of these next six regular-season games. “Coach always says football doesn't start until after Thanksgiving, so you've got to play your best football when it comes around. We have a lot of division games,” said James White. “I think guys will come back fired up and ready to go (after the bye) and have a lot of energy. It's the most important part of the season.”

4. On the flip side, however, it’s worth mentioning that late-season dominance can occasionally be a false barometer. Several recent Super Bowl champs have appeared to struggle down the stretch, only to flip the switch when the playoffs begin. Last year, the Eagles went 3-2 over their last five regular-season games. The 2015 Broncos went 2-2 in their last four regular-season games. The 2013 Seahawks went 3-2, the 2012 Ravens lost four of their last five before the playoffs, and the 2011 Giants suffered a four-game losing streak in November and December before going on a roll in the postseason. All of those teams were able to coalesce at the right time. The lesson here? Don’t be fooled by the mere appearance of a late-season hot streak. Health, opponents, schedule, and a little bit of luck always seem to play a role. No one is suggesting you don’t want to be playing your best football going into the playoffs. It’s just that when it comes to postseason success, post-Thanksgiving victories can be a bit of a mirage when it comes to judging whether or not a team has real championship character.