NBA Notebook: Breaking down the Jimmy Butler trade through a Celtics lens

The Jimmy Butler trade saga came to a surprising conclusion on Saturday afternoon with one of the C’s chief rivals acquiring the All-Star swingman and adding to their talented core. New Sixers general manager Elton Brand put his stamp on the franchise early by electing to move forwards Robert Covington and Dario Saric, guard Jerryd Bayless and a 2021 second-round pick to the Timberwolves in exchange for Butler and an injured Justin Patton.

The move carries some serious implications at the top of the Eastern Conference for both the short and the long haul as Butler sounds open to remaining with Philadelphia over the long-term when he hits the unrestricted free agent market this summer.

How exactly does Butler’s acquisition change the Sixers outlook in the East for this season and beyond? What options will they have available to them to add to the roster after signing Butler? And will this move change anything about the C’s team-building plan? Let’s explore all of the factors in play here with a Boston spin on the matters.

Did the Sixers get better in the present?

It’s hard to argue anything but yes. The Wolves did well to acquire two above-average rotation players on below-market deals in Covington and Saric, but there’s no denying that any team would rather have Butler on the floor than Covington and Saric during the crunch time of games. Butler has his flaws on and off the floor, but he’s still a bonafide two-way All-Star.

One of the things the Sixers have lacked over their rebuild is a true shot creator at the end of games, and Butler gives them that in spades. His 3-point shooting is a bit lackluster over his career (34 percent), but that’s a number that has been trending upward in recent seasons. The overall fit with Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons will be interesting to watch on the offensive end, but the Sixers should have enough shooting to put around that trio (J.J. Redick, Landry Shamet, Wilson Chandler, Mike Muscala) to keep the floor spaced adequately. Markelle Fultz’s development may be stunted a bit by this acquisition, but this group really hadn’t done enough in the first 13 games of the regular season to justify keeping them together.

They had suffered blowout losses to the other East contenders (Celtics, Bucks, Raptors) and just didn’t appear to have the right mix of talent to hang with those groups. Butler doesn’t necessarily even things up in that department, but he gives the 2018-19 Sixers far more of a chance. Here’s a look at how their current depth chart stands:

Guards: Fultz, Redick, Shamet, McConnell, Smith (injured)

Wings: Butler, Chandler, Korkmaz, Patton

Bigs: Embiid, Muscala, Johnson, Bolden  

How does this move limit the Sixers’ future?

This is the scary part of this deal from Boston’s perspective, as the Sixers kept a lot of doors open for next summer even after the trade. Butler will take up a large chunk of cap room next summer, but the window is still open for the Sixers to target another high-priced free agent (up to $22 million in cap room) if they renounce their upcoming free agents (Redick, Chandler, Muscala). Moving on from Fultz without taking back salary would also enable the Sixers to have room to sign a max free agent in a fairly loaded market in the summer of 2019. Adding one more big name to a trio of Butler/Embiid/Simmons is a core that will be able to go toe-to-toe with anyone in the East for years to come.

The other worrisome issue here is the fact that the price tag was not very steep for Butler, which was understandable given his trade demand. Covington is a productive piece, but C’s fans have seen firsthand how his reliability drops off during the postseason. Saric is a young piece with plenty of remaining potential, but he’s going to get paid after next summer as well when he’s a restricted free agent. Both players are replaceable in today’s NBA, even though their 3-point shooting will be missed. Philadelphia still holds a couple of key trade chips in Markelle Fultz and Miami’s 2021 unprotected first round pick, a choice that could be valuable if another big name with a sizable contract (Bradley Beal?) becomes available in the months to come.   

The Butler acquisition all but guarantees that the summer of 2019 will be the last time the Sixers will have serious cap room for the foreseeable future. After that, big contracts for Simmons and Embiid will put them over the cap, leaving limited means to add to the roster. Landing Butler now ensures that cap room won’t go to waste if the Sixers come up empty on the free agent market. In fact, it may make the Sixers more appealing for a bigger name looking to contend in the Eastern Conference.

How should Celtics respond to this move?

On the surface, this isn’t an ideal development for the C’s. Butler is a gamer and Saric/Covington weren’t exactly matchup problems in the postseason for this Boston roster. Butler will be a tougher test now when he’s surrounded by a stronger supporting cast in Embiid and Simmons. If Philly can add another elite shooter to the mix with Redick, they could be a scary group.

There are inherent risks involved here for Philly over the long-term. Butler will be 30 when he signs his max deal next summer, and he has a lot of miles on those tires from his days playing under Tom Thibodeau. While an Embiid/Simmons/Butler core looks enticing on paper, it remains to be seen just how well that group will mesh together from an offensive standpoint. All three are at their best with the ball in their hands, and there isn’t a ton of reliable spacing within that group. Adding the right supporting pieces will be essential to make that group work best offensively, and it’s unclear if those pieces (besides Redick, who is 37) are on the Sixers roster right now.

From a matchup standpoint with Boston, it creates a tougher ask for the C’s wing defenders. Keeping track of Butler and Redick on the floor together, while also containing Simmons and Embiid, is not going to be an easy task and will require great discipline. Tatum is going to have a tough time sticking with either Butler or Redick in longer stints, which plays an increased importance on the continued recovery of Gordon Hayward from a defensive standpoint. He’s been targeted in recent weeks (see: Utah) while being a step slow with his mobility, and that will continue when he’s on the floor against Philly until he gets to full strength. The pressure will be on Marcus Smart, Terry Rozier and Jaylen Brown to keep Butler/Redick in check. There will be fewer places for Kyrie Irving to hide on defense as well.

From a team-building standpoint, little changes here for Boston. They have kept their young studs unavailable in hopes that they would blossom/in case Anthony Davis becomes available this summer. The Sixers take themselves out of the potential bidding for Davis with this move (unless they are giving up Simmons), but they also ensure that they will not miss out on a chance to add a star after coming up empty in free agency last summer.

Whether or not it works remains to be seen, but the Sixers took their shot here, just like the Raptors did in the summer with Kawhi Leonard. That’s not good news for the C’s chances of getting through the Eastern Conference this season, as the road to the NBA Finals is almost guaranteed to go through tough two opponents now with Toronto, Milwaukee and Philadelphia all looking formidable as likely top four seeds. The C’s will have a strong chance to win any of those matchups but the task looks more challenging than ever with Butler in the mix and homecourt advantage looking unlikely after this slow start.

The Celtics still have plenty of options for both the present and the future, but the value of their trade chips (Sacramento pick, Memphis pick, Jaylen Brown) have been on the decline for the first month of the season. The waiting game has its risks, so the Sixers decided to cash in while they could with some of their chips, a move that should make life tougher for Danny Ainge in 2019 and beyond.