Source: Terry Rozier trade 'extremely unlikely' during season

PHOENIX --  The most predictable subplot of the 2018-19 season has come into play just ten games into the Celtics' campaign: Not everyone is thrilled with their playing time.

That includes point guard Terry Rozier who has spoken about the toughness of his situation repeatedly this season to Bostonsportsjournal.com and others.

There's no denying that the Celtics have tested the trade waters on Rozier in the past six months. Bostonsportsjournal.com back in June that the C's inquired about his value with several teams before ultimately opting to keep the 24-year-old guard who had become a big part of the team's success even when Kyrie Irving was healthy last season.

Still, the trade winds appear to be picking up steam again after Shams Charania of The Athletic reported that several teams are 'waiting' on the potential availability of Rozier in a trade. Meanwhile, the Celtics as a team and Rozier have stumbled at times over the course of a 6-4 start, with Rozier playing to his usual skillset from both a positive and negative standpoint. Great rebounding, a low turnover rate, solid 3-point shooting are the plusses. Lackluster finishing at the rim (32 percent on 2-point field goals) and a low assist rate remain the main negatives of his game.

With seemingly too many mouths to feed on the Celtics bench, Rozier, on the surface, would appear to be a trade candidate if Danny Ainge wanted to shake things up. However, a league source tells Bostonsportsjournal.com that a trade of Rozier during the season is extremely unlikely. A closer look at the factors in play make it easy to see why.

The Celtics are trying to win now

Let's start with the basics. The Celtics are all-in on trying to win a title this season and Rozier is a big part of their plan to do that. In order to move him, the C's need to be making what they would deem 'a net neutral' move or something close to it on the court, according to a league source. Finding a team willing to deal that type of player to Boston in a deal for a free agent-to-be in Rozier is far easier said than done.

Given the limitations of trade rules for teams in the luxury tax (must be within 125 percent of outgoing salary), there's a very finite number of players that could maintain the C's bench talent at the Rozier's price ($3 million in 2018-19) and odds are a lot of those guys simply aren't on the market. Ainge would surely welcome future assets in any type of deal, but he's not going to allow this team to take a major step back on the court in any trade right now. Rozier has had a rough few games this month but he was also arguably the team's best player over the first couple weeks. He's also a playoff-proven performer at this point and that is on the mind of this front office.

Most teams are set at point guard

The Suns desperately need a point guard. The Magic could use an upgrade. The Spurs have lost a couple of key guards due to injury. However, when you look around the NBA, there is a very short list of teams that are in the market for a starting-caliber upgrade to their backcourt and also are trying to make the postseason. Those that do follow that criteria have very limited assets that would be attainable for Boston. For instance, the Suns don't have any appealing pieces for Boston that salary match with Rozier's $3 million and the same goes for the Magic.

Most of those teams have younger pieces that could be moved in theory but why would guys with a couple years of cost control (like Josh Jackson or Mikal Bridges in Phoenix) be offered up when those franchises have a reasonable chance at landing Rozier with a big offer in free agency this summer. Rozier is an appealing piece but he's not worth sacrificing significant assets for a rebuilding squad when the Celtics are rightfully keeping his asking price high.

The Celtics still hold all the leverage here

Rozier may not want to be a backup over the long-term, but nothing changes the fact that the C's hold all the cards for the fourth-year guard as he enters restricted free agency this summer. He will have suitors from around the league but the 2019 free agent market is loaded with talent in the backcourt after nearly half of the market last season signed one-year deals or contracts with opt-outs.

Most of these names will be unrestricted free agents and that could create a little bit of uncertainty for a guy like Rozier, who could be in a waiting game on the restricted free agency market. There will be nearly 15 teams with significant salary cap room this summer but there will be far more players than usual to spend it on.

Rozier could be more important for future sign-and-trade possibilities 

Even if the Celtics don't want to bring back Rozier at a high price tag after this season, they still will have the ability to move him in a sign-and-trade this summer, a move that could create a valuable trade exception for them over the long-term (if he's moved for picks) or create the ability for them to land a superstar via money matching (Anthony Davis), while also maximizing their output for the current season.

With Boston looking to be cap strapped over the long-term, there will be very limited ways the team can add to their roster on the trade front. Rozier's youth and potential make him one of the more appealing young pieces on the roster that is moveable. If the Celtics want to maintain flexibility heading into next offseason, holding onto Rozier now helps them to keep all their options open.

Kyrie insurance

The All-Star may be staying, but until he puts pen to paper next July, keeping some extra insurance in place behind him is probably a pretty smart idea, even if it's just to protect against the threat of injury.

The Rozier vs. Smart decision is yet to be made

We've discussed repeatedly over the past year at BSJ the fact that Rozier and Smart are both unlikely to be on the roster past this season. However, it's evident that a choice hasn't been made on that front yet. Smart's four-year deal this offseason gives Boston the ability to trade him midseason (after December 15th) and while the odds of an in-season move are very unlikely, that could change in the summer. Smart's agent acknowledged to Bostonsportsjournal.com back in July that a big part of why his deal came to be was giving the Celtics a movable salary for an eventual trade.

It's not clear just yet whether Smart or Rozier is the better fit with this core long-term, largely because we don't know how well this group meshes yet with a healthy Gordon Hayward. That answer may take a while longer to figure out, but it's far from a certain which way the Celtics are leaning on the Smart vs. Rozier front.

Final Thoughts 

Barring an unlikely scenario in which a team overpays for Rozier, the Celtics already passed on their best chance to move Rozier (before the draft). While it hasn't been the best start for this group, removing Rozier from the mix would create more problems than it would solve. Ainge will listen, as always, but finding a swap that checks all of these boxes seems like a complete long shot. If the Celtics want to win now, Rozier isn't going anywhere.