McAdam: Ranking the likelihood of seven Red Sox free agents for return

CARLSBAD, Calif. -- According to Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski, all seven of the Red Sox eligible free agents have signaled a willingness to re-sign with the Red Sox.

Retaining all of them, of course, wouldn't be prudent. For one thing, the cost of doing so would be prohibitive, with the Red Sox already committed to approximately $200 million in salary obligations. For another, at least some roster turnover is a welcome thing, even for a team which won 108 games and has aspirations to become baseball's first back-to-back champion since the New York Yankees of 1998-2000.

With that in mind, here's a list of the players and their chances of returning to the Sox in 2019, ranked from most likely to least likely:

1. Steve Pearce

Pearce proved to be a perfect complementary piece for the Red Sox roster when he was obtained in June to help the team overcome its struggles against lefty pitching. He further solidified his worth with his performance in Games 4 and 5 of the World Series (three homers, one three-run double) to earn himself World Series MVP. At 36, he's unlikely to become an everyday player elsewhere, and he's signaled a willingness to return to the Sox in the same role as Mitch Moreland's platoon partner at first base and pinch-hitter deluxe. Given his age and what he'd be asked to do, Pearce won't get too much more than last year's salary ($6.25 million) and that affordability makes him a decent chance to return.

2. Joe Kelly

In recent years, power set-up arms have cleaned up in free agency, often among the first players to sign in the offseason. It wouldn't surprise anyone is Kelly fit into this category, especially since he's represented by Seth and Sam Levinson, who have a track record of striking quickly for their clients. Kelly's career-long problem has been consistency, and in 2018, that was again the case. After getting rocked for four runs on Opening Day, Kelly then went two months (April and May) in which he allowed a total of one run. Then came two months (June and July) in which he had ERAs over 8.00, before compiling a 1.42 ERA in August and an 8.31 ERA in the final month. Maybe it's true that something finally got unlocked in the postseason, when he narrowed his pitch mix. Either way, the Sox would welcome him back...as long as the bidding doesn't get crazy.

3. Nathan Eovaldi

Eovaldi was already someone the Red Sox would have pursued even before his magical October. But his performance in the Red Sox championship run and his willingness to take the ball in any role, at any time, only further endeared him to the organization. The problem, of course, is that other teams were watching and that greatly enhanced his leverage and what he'll be able to command on the open market. A number of teams could see him as the best value out there, including his hometown Houston Astros. He'll be expensive, sure, but with the Sox in position to lose both Chris Sale and Rick Porcello after 2019, it's time to start assembling a rotation for 2020 and beyond. Eovaldi would be a nice -- if pricey - place to start.

4. Craig Kimbrel.

If money weren't the issue, the Red Sox would welcome Kimbrel back tomorrow. Despite his struggles in October, he remains one of the game's most elite and dependable closers, with a proven track record few can match. But Kimbrel is hitting free agency at the right time - at 30 years old, with no signs of arm trouble. He'll be targeted by a handful of teams (the Phillies, Cardinals and Braves are all said to be interested) and someone will make him an offer he can't -- or shouldn't -- refuse. The Red Sox may find it more difficult then they think to replace him since closers with eight consecutive seasons of 30-plus saves aren't exactly commonplace. But for a team with other options, it's probably hard to justify a multi-year deal for $18 million (or more) annually.

5. Drew Pomeranz

Hey, stranger things have happened. After a highly disappointing season, Pomeranz doesn't have much leverage this off-season, which could make him an affordable and experienced option for the Sox. A year ago, he was coming off a 17-win season and a 3.32 ERA; this year, he was 2-6, 6.08. Timing is, indeed, everything. But if the Red Sox are convinced that Pomeranz is over his forearm issues, they could do worse than to bring him back as a swing candidate.

6. Ian Kinsler

Kinsler helped stabilize second base when he was obtained, but was a disappointment offensively. At 36, he wants to continue playing, but with Brock Holt, Tzu-Wei Lin and Eduardo Nunez providing depth and insurance behind Dustin Pedroia, there seems little role or space for Kinsler.

7. Brandon Phillips.

Phillips won a game on Labor Day with a ninth-inning homer...and then contributed little for the rest of September. He was sent home at the end of the season, rather than invited to remain with the team or travel to Fort Myers to stay ready in the event of an injury to someone on the roster, which seemed odd and makes you wonder if something happened to make the organization sour on the veteran infielder.