Almost every season, one team comes out of the NBA woodwork and exceeds nearly all preseason expectations. Last year, it was the Indiana Pacers that emerged from the wreckage of the Paul George trade as a surprise 48-win team, despite the fact nearly every NBA analyst had them pegged as a lottery team.
Nine games into the 2018-19 season, it’s easy to find this year's candidate: the Sacramento Kings. They've rolled to a 6-3 start, including a five-game winning streak behind standout play from De’Aaron Fox (19 ppg, 7 apg), Buddy Hield (19.8 ppg) and Willie Cauley-Stein (16 ppg, 8.7 rpg).
Naturally, Celtics fans have a vested interest in the fortunes of this Sacramento squad due to the looming arrival of a top-1 protected first-round pick from either the Kings or the Sixers. Incredibly, that pick would actually come from the Sixers if the season were to end right now (owners of a 6-4 record). But the smart money is obviously still on Philly easily topping the Kings in the standings this year.
Still, the assumption the Kings will easily be one of the worst five teams in the NBA is not longer a safe bet. While some teams tend to fall back to earth quickly after hot starts (Orlando Magic, Memphis Grizzlies were two last year), it’s unclear just yet which path this Kings' squad will take. Will they be a flash in the pan or trend closer to a surprise team like the Pacers? Let’s look deeper into the numbers to figure out where the Kings might be headed.
Promising signs for the Kings
Road wins: Winning in the NBA is hard, and doing it on the road is even harder. Through nine games, the Kings are tied for the most road wins (four) in the league. There has only been one truly quality opponent so far (Oklahoma City), but the number that stands out here is the margin of victory in these games. They’ve won all four by eight points or more, which is a pretty impressive statement, no matter who the opponent is.
Playing fast: The Kings are one of the youngest teams in the NBA, and they’ve put their young legs to work within Dave Joerger’s offense. Sacramento is playing with the second-fastest pace in the league. That type of tempo has allowed them to produce 119.8 points per game, the third-highest mark in the league.
Balanced scoring: It wasn’t clear before the year who would handle the scoring for the Kings, and the early returns have it looking like a little bit of everyone. Five different players are averaging 13 or more points per game, including No. 2 overall pick Marvin Bagley, while nine players are scoring seven or more points per game.
Signs that they will come back to earth
Absurd 3-point shooting: The Kings are shooting 40 percent from downtown as a team early on, which is good enough for the second-best mark in the NBA. At the forefront of that success has been free-agent pickup Nemanja Bjelica, who has been lights out from downtown (55.3 percent). Hield (48.9 percent from 3) has started to make the DeMarcus Cousins trade look like a smart move for the Kings with his marksmanship, and forgotten former Cav Iman Shumpert has recovered well from knee injuries (44 percent) for a strong start. Still, with half the roster shooting under 30 percent as a team, it’s fair to guess these numbers will come crashing back to earth.
Not doing anything particularly well besides shooting: A look at the four factors leaves just a couple of areas that look impressive for Sacramento. They are shooting the lights out and forcing turnovers at a high rate, but everything else they are doing on the floor is relatively ordinary. They are a below-average rebounding team, they don’t get to the free throw line, and are positively mediocre almost everywhere else. Not exactly an endorsement they'll be able to weather the storm once the shooting evens out.
A soft schedule to start the year: Basketball-Reference has them pegged as playing the eighth-easiest schedule thus far. They’ve won big on the road against Russell Westbrook in his first game back and against underwhelming rosters in Atlanta and Orlando. Life gets much tougher over the rest of the month as their next 11 games come against projected playoff teams, including Toronto and Milwaukee this week.
What’s the verdict?
Despite another scoring boost (Bogdan Bogdanovic) being expected to return to the lineup this week, I’m not buying in on the Kings as a .500 team this year. However, a 30-35 win squad remains a distinct possibility with this group given the development of guys like Hield and Fox. Joerger is a solid coach and he’s got these guys playing a system that they can thrive in against the right opponents.
While there are only two teams in the West that are clear-cut candidates for the cellar (Phoenix, Dallas), there are enough subpar/tanking squads in the East (Cleveland, Atlanta, Chicago, Orlando) where a bottom five slot in the lottery is no longer a likelihood for these Kings.
Ultimately, the Celtics will get richer this spring with up to four draft picks, but they will need to have some ping-pong luck on their side if they want to get toward the top half of the lottery draft board.
Other NBA Thoughts
- Lakers did well to address their lack of big-man bench depth early by agreeing to sign Tyson Chandler after the center was bought out by the Suns. It’s unclear how much the 36-year-old has left in the tank, but he is a rebounding machine and should be able to help anchor a Lakers' defense that was in freefall whenever JaVale McGee was on the bench.
- Kevin Love is out for at least the next six weeks after undergoing foot surgery. The Cavs are struggling without him (1-8) and you have to wonder just how much he will play this year if they're in full on tank mode by the time he returns to the lineup in January. That four-year extension he signed in the summer is already looking like an iffy investment for the Cavs. Not sure who wants to take on that kind of money for a guy who is such an injury liability.
- I admire the gall of Larry Drew, the Cavs interim head coach, for trying to hold out for more money and a longer deal after Ty Lue got fired. The guy is already making a million dollars per year and he’s leading a team that is destined to tank this year. Pretty sure when it comes to that and a cheap owner in Dan Gilbert, this is a situation where the organization won’t budge.
- Despite a 1-8 start, Scott Brooks got a full vote of support from ownership in Washington. With the luxury tax bill looming, I wonder how much rope the Wizards will get to turn things around before that roster gets blown up. John Wall will be tough to move on that monster deal, but the Wiz could easily find takers for Bradley Beal or Otto Porter Jr.