It used to be true that you can't tell the players without a scorecard. Now, that bit of wisdom has been amended: You can't put a roster together without first figuring out the cost.
The 2018 Red Sox had both the highest payroll in the game (somewhere around $240 million) and the highest payroll in franchise history. The money was well spent — most if it, anyway — since the Sox won the World Series last weekend.
And while principal owner John Henry noted in the immediate aftermath of the title win that "you can't (spend to the maximum) every year,'' it would seem a given that the Red Sox will, again, go over the first threshold of $206 million for their 2019 roster.
Here's a look at what they in terms of commitments and how much money they have to spend in pursuit of a second-straight championship.
RETURNING PLAYERS WITH SET SALARIES
David Price $31 million
J.D. Martinez $23.75 million
Rick Porcello $21.125 million
Dustin Pedroia $15.125 million
Chris Sale $15 million
Mitch Moreland $6 million
Eduardo Nunez $5 million
Christian Vazquez $2.85 million
TOTAL $119.850 million
ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS WITH PROJECTED SALARIES (courtesy: MLB TradeRumors.com)
Mookie Betts $18.7 million
Xander Bogaerts $11.9 million
Jackie Bradley Jr. $7.9 million
Eduardo Rodriguez$4.8 million
Brock Holt $3.4 million
Tyler Thornburg $2.3 million
Sandy Leon $2.3 million
Matt Barnes $1.5 million
Brandon Workman $1.4 million
Steven Wright $1.4 million
Heath Hembree $1.2 million
Blake Swihart $1.1 million
TOTAL $57.9 million
TOTAL TO THIS POINT: $177.75 million
PLAYERS w/ 0-3 years of service time:
Andrew Benintendi
Rafael Devers
Marco Hernandez
Austin Maddox
Brian Johnson
Hector Velazquez
Ryan Brasier
TOTAL (approximate) $4.5 million
PLAYERS OFF ROSTER WITH REMAINING OBLIGATIONS:
Pablo Sandoval $18.4 million
TOTAL PAYROLL $200.650 million.
That figure doesn't factor in another 10 percent or so for insurance, health care and other factors, all of which go into the computation of a payroll. So even before the Red Sox think about adding any free agents or obtain any veterans in a trade, they're effectively over the first luxury tax threshold of $206 million.
(The next threshold comes at $226 million, which carries with it a higher tax. It may be tough for the Sox to avoid this, too. Surely, however, they will want to avoid going over the next level, set at $246 million).
Might that limit what the Red Sox can spend on free agents? Somewhat.
Their most costly outlay will almost certainly come at the closer's position. If the Red Sox re-sign Craig Kimbrel, it seems certain that such a contract would cost them, at minimum, $18 million annually, probably for four or five years.
Both Aroldis Chapman (five years, $86 million) and Wade Davis (three years, $52 million) established the going rate for elite closers at north of $17 million in terms of annual average value. And because the numbers never go backward in free agency, let's assume that the bar now sits at $18 million annually.
Given that level of necessary investment, the Sox might find themselves in a position of choosing between, say, retaining both Nathan Eovaldi and Steve Pearce or Kimbrel -- but not all three.
Eovaldi will presumably command somewhere in the $15-$16 million neighborhood annually, while Pearce could get around $4-5 million.
Should the Sox choose the latter, it would leave them with the option of finding a closer on the current roster. In his end-of-season press conference Thursday, Dave Dombrowski identified Matt Barnes and Ryan Brasier as potential candidates to close.
But for a team intent on properly defending its world championship, that would be a considerable risk. While closers sometimes come from unlikely places -- recall that 2013 postseason hero Koji Uehara was the fourth closer the Sox auditioned for the role that season -- it would be quite the gambit for the Sox to turn to either Barnes or Brasier, who have combined for exactly two (2) saves in their major league careers.
Presumably, a more experienced closer -- such as Zach Britton -- could be had at a lesser cost than Kimbrel, but even Britton would command an eight-figure annual salary (he made $12 million last season).
Of course, it's conceivable that the Sox could free up some additional payroll flexibility by dealing off a contract from their roster.
There's a backlog of catching, but none of the three catchers is scheduled to make a lot of money. If the Sox were to move either Leon or Vazquez, it would still save them less than $3 million.
The biggest potential savings could come in the rotation, where Porcello, a year away from free agency, could have some appeal. Moving Porcello would save the Sox some $21 million and presumably allow for the Sox to retain both Pearce and Eovaldi with his money.
That would still leave the Sox with a projected rotation of Sale, Price, Eovaldi, Rodriguez and Wright, with Johnson and Velazquez representing depth options. But given the heavy workload experienced by Red Sox starters thanks to their deep postseason run, do they really want to go into 2019 with one less dependable (and entirely healthy) starter like Porcello — especially when you consider that Porcello is two outs shy of averaging 199 innings over the last five seasons.
The Red Sox are fortunate that they have no significant holes when it comes to position players, with every position covered by a returning starter and able bench players (Holt, Nunez, perhaps even Hernandez) set to return, too.
But to maintain their rotation depth and provide themselves with an experienced closer at the back end of their bullpen, it's going to cost the Sox -- again — to be good.
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