There's been a lot of talk recently about Rob Gronkowski.
I praised his all-around skills with his blocking against the Chiefs. The following week against the Bears, he had back spasms and didn't make the trip. Then, on Monday night against the Bills, he had just three catches on eight targets.
All of the chatter has been warranted. A fully healthy Gronkowski arguably represents the greatest separation at any position from the rest of the pack. Basically, the distance between him and the rest of the league's good tight ends is larger than, say, Tom Brady and the rest of the quarterbacks and even James White and other top pass-catching running backs.
The operative words: when healthy.
It's obvious Gronkowski is not completely healthy, or even close to it. We'll get into some of my thoughts on that in a second, but we'll start with my biggest takeaway from the Buffalo game (aside from the fact the Bills' defense is really good and playing faster by the week): If the way Buffalo covered Gronkowski is any indication (and it might not be), then teams are no longer all that concerned about the tight end.
The Bills double-teamed Gronkowski just twice in this game. He also wasn't jammed that much coming off the line. Most of the time, when you combine those two things and add the fact it was against Buffalo in Buffalo — Gronk dominates in his hometown — you get a Gronk Domination game.
Instead, it was just a whimper.
So what's going on with the Big Fella? And do I think this will last the rest of the season?
The Bills are legit on defense: I didn't really realize how good they were entering this game (thanks Red Sox), but this often happens with young teams that get better every week. The Buffalo defense is damn good, especially when Tremaine Edwards was in the game. Matt Milano is a poor man's Luke Kuechly in this scheme and does a really good job.
This play was sort of a perfect intersection of Gronk not being himself and Milano doing a nice job. Most MLBs fall for the play-fake, leaving Gronkowski wide open. Milano did take a few false steps — normally enough for a healthy Gronk to be off to the races — but he didn't have the explosion, appeared covered and Brady had to make other plans.
Sean McDermott is not a guy to get crazy with double teams: I don't want to put a ton of stock into the Bills not doubling Gronk that much, because the head coach is more of a scheme guy than someone reliant on tactics against specific opponents. So the fact the Bills didn't double him all that much shouldn't be used as iron-clad proof of anything. Could be something, could be nothing. I think it's a big in between.
Gronk's dealing with something in his legs: It's been reported he has an ankle injury, but I don't buy it. To me, he lacks explosion and push-off. Combine that with how he was limping at times earlier in the season, and I think he's dealing with something more serious. To be clear, I have no inside knowledge on this and this is a guess from covering the NFL for 17 years. (I'm sure Doc Flynn will yell at me.) But I think Gronk is dealing with either Achilles tendonitis or plantar fasciitis. I don't think either is a huge issue at this point, but both can get really bad really quick. You combine that with his back issues, and I think he just isn't feeling all that invincible anymore and is starting to remember why he contemplated walking away in the offseason. I think Gronk needs some rest at this point, which leads us to ...
This isn't our first rodeo with this: Almost exactly one year ago, I was begging for the Patriots to go out and get Gronkowski some help at the trade deadline. Even by his own admission, Gronk wasn't operating at full capacity back then. He looked tired then at midseason. He looks tired now. He needs that bye week (after the Titans game on Nov. 11). He was better after the bye last year.
https://twitter.com/BostonSportsBSJ/status/924926250145083392
This Patriots offense is just different: It's very difficult to judge anyone's performance in this offense against the past because things have been in constant flux. Julian Edelman's suspension led to Gronk getting doubled all the time. Now they're trying to incorporate new receivers (Josh Gordon, Cordarrelle Patterson) while Edelman builds back to 100 percent, and have had such injury issues at running back they've used a receiver there. The offense is out of sync right now. Gronk is caught up in that as well. There should be much, much better days ahead for this offense, and he'll be part of that too.
When it comes to Gronk's happiness, the money does matter: I think Gronkowski realizes it doesn't look like he's going to pick up many of his incentives, and that has left him a little deflated. No, I don't blame him. He's only human.
The million dollar question — do I think this will continue?
No, I don't. But I don't think the late bye week is doing Gronkowski any favors at this point. If it was just up the Patriots — and it's not because of those incentives — they should want to put Gronkowski on ice until after the bye week. If he and the team continue to push it, the chance of a season-ending injury only increases. The offense and his role in it will get figured out soon, perhaps this week. But the potential for serious injury has the to be the biggest concern.
Here are the positional ratings against the Bills:
Quarterback (4 out of 5)
Brady had a very uneven first half and, even though I absolved him for much of that on Monday, a closer viewing showed he wasn't all that sharp. I don't think I've ever (when he has good line play) seen Brady's footwork as sloppy as it's been this season. He throws 5-6 passes a game where his feet are pointing one way, and he's throwing another. That's a recipe for a pick-six, and he almost threw a couple in this game. Brady has also missed more open receivers than in past years. Again, I contribute this to all the new faces and overall inconsistency of the personnel. Outside of James White and Julian Edelman, Brady doesn't trust much at this point. Brady was really good in the second half. That has been a theme this season too.
Running backs (3 out of 5)
The lack of a running game can be chalked up the Bills being really good and stacking the box. It was odd the Patriots ran into some bad boxes. Maybe they can't change many plays with Gordon on the field. ... Patterson was actually pretty good at running back.
Receivers (3 out of 5)
Edelman was great again, and Chris Hogan made the most of his moments. But the offense was fairly inconsistent with anyone else in there. Included in that is Gordon, who was much-improved in his route running and scheme comprehension, but he still had issues. There was the big drop on the deep pass, and he had a few times where he's not getting in and out of his breaks fast enough. Like here:
Offensive line (2.5 out of 5)
DEFENSE
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Defensive line (5 out of 5)
Trey Flowers was really the only huge standout in this group (I moved Kyle Van Noy back to linebacker for this game), but the whole unit was outstanding. Not one blown edge, and only a few guys getting shoved out of gaps. The stuff percentage was a season high. ... I don't think Adrian Clayborn even played until the end of the game when he got a sack. Probably punishment for his terrible rush discipline against the Bears.
Linebackers (4 out of 5)
Van Noy wasn't flawless in this game — he had a hand in two 20-yard passes in coverage — but he continues to be a playmaker for this group. Not many players shoot the gaps and guess right more than Van Noy. ... Elandon Roberts had another really good game. Can't tell if he's coming into his own, or it's just the offenses he's going against. Regardless, Roberts has played very well in recent weeks. He also caused the butt-tackle-for-a-loss by taking on the pulling guard.
Secondary (5 out of 5)
Best performance of the season, but not sure how much you can glean against that offense and quarterback. But great coverage across the board. Patrick Chung was probably the best of the bunch.
THREE UP
Trey Flowers: Eight impactful plays. Finally back to playing his game.
Julian Edelman: White also had a great game, but Edelman was more important in this one.
Joe Thuney: This would normally be Van Noy, but four minus plays offset some of his big plays, and Roberts got consideration. But Thuney had a completely clean sheet against a good front.
THREE DOWN
Trent Brown: Just way too many negative plays in this game. The Bills' edge players are good, but not that good.
LaAdrian Waddle: Did a lot of lunging and grabbing in this game, and he also whiffed a lot. If Marcus Cannon is out for a while, this needs to get cleaned up.
Both punters: Josh Allen and Corey Bojorquez were poor in this game. Bojorquez went on IR with a lingering shoulder injury after the game. At least he had an excuse.
