Coach's View: Home-field energy will carry Buffalo only so far Monday against Patriots

Monday Night Football! This is one of the NFL’s great traditions. It turns the lights on for two teams nationally. Having been to a number of these games -- regardless of record -- the energy and excitement is just simply different. The players know they're on TVs across America, and want to perform well.

I’m sure the Buffalo coaching staff is counting on this national hype in hopes that their team will step up to the challenge of facing the Patriots.

When it comes to Buffalo, I have one personal connection -- Coastal Carolina’s Tyler Keane is in his first year with the Bills as a Football Analytics Intern. Tyler was a “Rudy” type story for us at Coastal. He grew up just down the road from campus in Myrtle Beach and had a great high school career at Myrtle Beach High as a quarterback. His problem? He's 5-foot-9, not very fast, and had average arm strength. Basically, the colleges weren’t knocking down his door. Tyler wanted to stay close to home and chose to walk-on at Coastal Carolina.

After three years as a scout-team quarterback, Tyler finally got his opportunity. We had a season where five quarterbacks went down with injuries, Tyler stepped in, and we went on to have two great years. In his second year as our starter, he led us in our inaugural year at the FBS level which included a one-point loss to a Bret Bielema-coached Arkansas team. Not bad for a 5-foot-9 kid that couldn’t run very well and didn’t have great arm strength. If I know Tyler, I'm sure he'll quickly move up the ranks in the NFL!

In looking at this particular game, on paper, this is a bad matchup for the Bills, and the Patriots should deservedly be a big favorite. However, as we know, Bill Belichick finds a way to convince his players week in and week out of how their next opponent can beat them.



Right off the bat, this is Monday Night Football. On top of that, the Patriots will be dealing with #BillsMafia. Buffalo is a franchise in the process of overhauling last years' playoff roster. They have played well in spots, and the energy of Monday Night Football could be enough to allow them to be competitive.

Offensive coordinator Brian Daboll is part of the Belichick coaching tree, and was in New England for eleven seasons. This fact alone is enough to cause some concern he may know the inner workings of the Patriots and what may or may not be effective against their scheme. At the same time, the Bills have struggled this year. They're averaging just under twelve points per game, and have had major turnover problems as well.

From a scheme standpoint, this is not an overly creative offense. A lot of that has to do with their inconsistency at the quarterback position. They’ve had three different starters at the position this year.

Their primary personnel grouping is 11. They will mix in 12 and 21 personnel as well. Their run game is based on variations of the zone play. They run inside zone, split zone, and stretch.

Their pass game is a very simplified version of what the Patriots do. They like to try and get the ball out quick and will work option routes done field. They will run some screens and have had some success in doing so.

Although the Bills will run some run-pass option concepts, it is not a big part of their game plan. Also of note? The quarterback run game has also not been a factor for them this season.

At QB, we'll see 14-year veteran, journeyman Derek Anderson. (First-round pick Josh Allen is out with an elbow injury.) Anderson is what you would expect -- he's fairly confident on the field. He is not a mobile QB, but does have decent arm strength. He will throw the ball to the opponent. His challenge is learning Daboll’s system in a short period of time.

Running back is a position of strength for the Bills, but we may not see the entire group. Their best player is former All-Pro LeSean McCoy, but he's in the concussion protocol process right now and may not play. He’s also rumored in a number of trade talks, so I’d be surprised if he does in fact suit up. If he doesn’t play, we will get a heavy dose of Chris Ivory, who is a downhill physical runner, but not a home-run hitter.

The wide receiver group on this team is not very talented. Zay Jones is the only player that pops to me. He has some ability and can create on his own. The Bills also have Kelvin Benjamin as a starter, but to me, he is washed up and can no longer perform at a high level.

At tight end, the Bills do try and involve this group in their pass game. Charles Clay is the starter and does flash at times, but he's not the matchup problem that we’ve seen with the Chiefs and Bears tight ends.

The offensive line is also not a very good group. On film, they often appeared confused and blown assignments are prevalent. Dion Dawkins at left tackle is the best of the group. He does a good job in protection and is fairly physical in the run game, but the rest of the guys really struggle, particularly when they are covered up and forced to be in one-on-one situations. I expect the Bear front to be a big part of the Patriots' defensive plan this week.

Defensively, the Bills are a four-down, even-front team. They are based out of a 4-3 scheme, and will play quite a bit of nickel personnel groupings. They tend to be in odd coverage, as they like to get eight in the box. They appear to be running the Pete Carroll cover 3 match-coverage scheme. They’ve had their most success bringing a fifth rusher and playing three under three deep coverage behind it. They will get into some cover two and four, but that's not what they want to be doing.

In general -- from a personnel standpoint -- this Bills team is much better off on defense than they are on offense.

The defensive line has some talent. Jerry Hughes is a good pass rush guy, and plays with a ton of energy. At the other defensive end spot, Trent Murphy has proven to also be a good pass rusher and he brings the same energy as Hughes. On the interior defensive line, Kyle Williams shows up the most to me. He’s very physical, plays with good pad level and is a competitor.

The linebacker group is very athletic -- they can all run. Tremaine Edmunds has shown some real potential. His production has tailed off some in recent weeks, but I think he might just be hitting the rookie wall. Matt Milano out of BC is a good active player who plays hard. Lorenzo Alexander is the veteran of the group, and seems to be nearing the end of his career.

The Bills secondary is also solid. The corners are aggressive and can run. Micah Hyde at strong safety is the roll down guy in their cover three scheme. He is not afraid to mix it up.

When the Bills get into their nickel package, look for Taron Johnson to come into the game. He’s a rookie and stands out to me in coverage. He could be the guy tasked with sticking with Rob Gronkowski in this game.

On special teams, the Bills have really struggled -- I expect this to be an area of real strength for the Patriots. Look for the Patriots to try and take advantage of No. 44 Deon Lacey in punt protection. He has already allowed one blocked punt and has been beaten time and time again.

For the Bills to truly have a chance in this one, they will need to play above what their performance has been to date. Defensively, they have enough athleticism to hang in there. If the Bills don’t control the time of possession and turn the ball over, this game will be over fast. I think the Patriots will look to establish their run game early and take downfield shots with play action. Defensively, the Patriots need to have a confidence building game. They should be able to stop the run and sit in cover one.